| 2011 Power Rankings: Week 13 | ||||
| RK (LW) | TEAM | REC | COMMENT | |
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1 (1) | Packers | 11-0 | I’m beginning to run out of clever ways to say that the Packers are far and away the best team in the NFL. |
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2 (3) | Saints | 8-3 | An absolute thrashing of the Giants at home, the Saints are clicking on all cylinders. They may be the only team that can match up with the Packers. |
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3 (6) | Ravens | 8-3 | Huge statement win against the 9-2 49ers on Thanksgiving where their pass rush looked absolutely dominant. |
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4 (2) | 49ers | 9-2 | 49ers need to shore up their offensive line after a sloppy showing Thursday. Still no need to panic after losing across the country on a very short week. |
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5 (4) | Steelers | 8-3 | Ugly win in Arrowhead is still a ‘W’ in the standings. Those are the types of games Big Ben has won for them in the past few years. |
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6 (5) | Patriots | 8-3 | They fall a spot simply because the Ravens surged upwards. Secondary continues to be a concern after allowing 400 yards to Vince Young. |
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7 (8) | Cowboys | 7-4 | The division is theirs for the taking if they want it, they face a very manageable schedule but still have to play the Giants twice. |
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8 (9) | Texans | 8-3 | TJ Yates or Jake Delhomme? It’s certainly not Joe Montana vs Steve Young, but the Texans have a good enough running combo in Arian Foster and Ben Tate to ride them into the playoffs. |
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9 (12) | Falcons | 7-4 | Past 3 games for Matt Ryan have been simply stunning and their rush defense is playing out of their minds right now. |
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10 (10) | Lions | 7-4 | Matthew Stafford threw for another 3 picks yet the Lions were in the game for a while in the first half of the game. Mistakes will be the downfall of this talented team. That, and a lack of a true running game with Kevin Smith out. |
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11 (14) | Raiders | 7-4 | Raiders are winning without the quarterback and running back they started the year with. Palmer has been great since settling in and Michael Bush has filled the giant hole Darren McFadden left when he got hurt. |
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12 (7) | Bears | 7-4 | Caleb Hanie needs to look up intentional grounding rules before next game. |
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13 (13) | Bengals | 7-4 | The Bengals almost threw up a stinker against the Browns who worked long methodical drives. Andy Dalton had a heck of a second half once again though. |
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14 (11) | Giants | 6-5 | I know the Giants have the hardest schedule in the NFL but is that really an excuse for what we saw Monday night? An absolute thrashing. |
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15 (17) | Broncos | 6-5 | Forget Tim Tebow, has anyone been paying attention to the Broncos defense lately? |
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16 (15) | Eagles | 4-7 | Despite throwing for 400 yards, Vince Young had no shot against the Patriots after another poor showing from this supposed dream defense. |
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17 (16) | Jets | 6-5 | They’ve begun digging themselves out of a hole with an ugly win against an inferior Bills team, but the Jets need to play much better football to secure that very reachable last playoff spot. |
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18 (18) | Titans | 5-6 | Titans are still in the hunt in the AFC South thanks to two injuries at the quarterback position for the Texans. |
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19 (19) | Dolphins | 3-8 | The Dolphins are going to enjoy playing spoiler for the rest of the year and almost did against the Cowboys this week. Don’t sleep on them. |
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20 (21) | Bills | 5-6 | Almost pulled out a season saving upset in New Jersey, they’ve got a real uphill battle and it doesn’t help they’re getting bit hard by the injury bug. |
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21 (20) | Buccaneers | 4-7 | One of the more surprisingly bad teams this year drops another to a Titans team that has struggled to prove that they’re elite. |
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22 (23) | Panthers | 3-8 | Good Cam Newton was back this week, but is it here to stay? Can’t really judge him when he went up against a horrific Colts secondary. |
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23 (22) | Chargers | 4-7 | Another divisional loss drops them to last in the AFC West. Quarterback Philip Rivers needs to work on avoiding the turnovers. |
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24 (24) | Chiefs | 4-7 | Dwyane Bowe gave up on the season before Tyler Palko was ready to. Unfortunately for Palko his season’s likely over soon enough with Kyle Orton signing with the team. |
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25 (25) | Jaguars | 3-8 | Maurice Jones Drew was the leading rusher and receiver on Sunday, a perfect example of how much this team depends on him. Coach firing midweek won’t help an already struggling team. |
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26 (26) | Vikings | 2-9 | Without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings had no chance but you have to be impressed by the way Christian Ponder handles adversity. |
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27 (29) | Browns | 4-7 | Played hard against the Bengals but their offense continues to be below average. A second week with Peyton Hillis in the lineup would’ve helped in normal circumstances but they face Baltimore this week. |
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28 (30) | Redskins | 4-7 | The defense has kept them in games all year and Rex Grossman and Roy Helu finally helped enough on the offensive end to secure a win in a very difficult place to win. |
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29 (28) | Cardinals | 4-7 | Patrick Peterson has been a special teams stud and the Rams will have nightmares of him returning touchdowns in both games against them until next year. |
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30 (27) | Seahawks | 4-7 | Just when the Seahawks showed signs of life they drop a game against the Redskins on their coveted home field. Tarvaris Jackson is way too inconsistent, but we all knew that already. |
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31 (31) | Rams | 2-9 | The only reason the Rams can’t be at the bottom of any power ranking is because the Colts exist. On the bright side, Brandon Lloyd has looked great since coming over from Denver. |
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32 (32) | Colts | 0-11 | The Colts have turned to a man who has experience with 0-16 teams, Dan Orlovsky. Their winless streak may come down to week 17 against the Jaguars. |
Tag Archives: NFL
Week 13 Power Ranking
Week 12 Power Ranking
| 2011 Power Rankings: Week 12 | ||||
| RK (LW) | TEAM | REC | COMMENT | |
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1 (1) | Packers | 10-0 | They play one of the last few teams that have a chance at ending their undefeated season this week in the Lions after a scare by Tampa Bay. |
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2 (2) | 49ers | 9-1 | Harbaugh kept his team focused in a potential trap game scenario, now heads to the east coast on a short week to play their biggest challenge yet, Baltimore. |
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3 (3) | Saints | 7-3 | Sean Peyton has had an extra week to prepare against a free-falling Giants team. |
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4 (4) | Steelers | 7-3 | Banged up Ben Roethlisberger will get a rest this week against a Chiefs defense that has gotten to the QB the least amount of times of any team. |
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5 (5) | Patriots | 7-3 | Who figured a blowout against a struggling Chiefs in Foxboro with a quarterback making his first start? |
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6 (8) | Ravens | 7-3 | Came away with a huge win against legitimate contender Bengals thanks mostly to a bad call/stupid rule. |
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7 (7) | Bears | 7-3 | Bears cruised in a great win over the despondent Chargers, but at the price of Jay Cutler for the year. Rumor has it they’ve put in a claim for recently cut Kyle Orton. |
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8 (9) | Cowboys | 6-4 | Well look who’s tied for first! It wasn’t pretty, but the Cowboys pulled through in overtime and then satisfyingly watched the Eagles upset the Giants to bring them to a tie for 1st in the NFC East. |
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9 (10) | Texans | 7-3 | Some silver lining for the Texans passing offense: Leinart had a full bye week to prepare to step in at quarterback for Schaub. Not so silver lining: It’s still Leinart starting. |
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10 (11) | Lions | 7-3 | Really put to rest any worries that their offense was struggling by putting up 49 points, albeit against a weak Panthers team. Jahvid Best looks like he’ll be out another week though. |
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11 (6) | Giants | 6-4 | You can’t lose to Vince Young and not expect to drop a couple of spots. The Giants needed that game, and really should’ve won it. They severely miss Ahmad Bradshaw, who doesn’t look like he’ll be back this week either against a rested Saints team. |
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12 (14) | Falcons | 6-4 | Atlanta is trying to remind people that they’re still one of the top tier NFC teams and winning this week will certainly help convince people as well as their playoff hopes. |
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13 (12) | Bengals | 6-4 | The Bengals just can’t get over the hump of beating elite teams, always coming up just short. Still, they played great against the Ravens without their only real receiving threat. |
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14 (15) | Raiders | 6-4 | Carson Palmer is gave the Raiders exactly what they needed for a second straight week, and Michael Bush is filling in nicely for Darren McFadden. |
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15 (18) | Eagles | 4-6 | Maybe Vince Young meant it was HIS dream team when he talked so highly of the Eagles this past offseason. |
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16 (13) | Jets | 5-5 | Brutal loss in a must-win game against the Denver Tebows that brings them to .500 on the year. Luckily for them, the Bills have come back down to earth as well. They need to start winning, fast. |
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17 (25) | Broncos | 5-5 | Maybe the Broncos aren’t as bad as we thought they were..Or maybe Tim Tebow isn’t as bad as we thought they were? Either way, Jesus reincarnated somehow has the Broncos back to .500 and Denver has cut ties with former starting Kyle Orton. |
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18 (17) | Titans | 5-5 | Titans continue to fall down our list after missing out on a chance to really prove they’re an elite team against the Falcons. |
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19 (28) | Dolphins | 3-7 | Our biggest movers of the week, coming off an emphatic win against the Bills where Matt Moore and his comrades proclaimed, “WE’RE NO PUSH OVER ANYMORE!” Let’s see how they do against a streaking Cowboys team this week. |
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20 (19) | Buccaneers | 4-6 | Gave a great effort against the untouchable Packers, but that record just won’t do in a division like the NFC South. On the bright side, Legarrette Blount showed signs of returning to last years form. |
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21 (16) | Bills | 5-5 | Okay, I think it’s officially time we all jump off the Bills bandwagon now. Yes, the Dolphins have looked good in recent weeks but that’s no excuse to be completely dominated by an offense led by Matt Moore and Reggie Bush. |
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22 (20) | Chargers | 4-6 | The free fall continues for Norv’s Chargers…Who would’ve thought by week 12 the Chargers and Eagles would be a combined 8-12? |
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23 (24) | Panthers | 2-8 | Dear Cam Newton, we miss the old Cam that put up 400 yards per game and backdoored spreads like it was his job. Please bring him back. Lovingly, WalterFootballSucks.com Staff |
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24 (21) | Chiefs | 4-6 | Ohh Tyler Palko..you never had a shot, yet we all still watched for our own entertainment. Really though, Palko didn’t play nearly as poor as I expected in a tough environment, especially for his first start. |
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25 (22) | Jaguars | 3-7 | In a battle of inept offenses in Cleveland, one giant had to fall. Blaine Gabbert just isn’t very good, I know we’re all on the hate Tebow bandwagon this year, but has anybody watched this guy play? |
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26 (23) | Vikings | 2-8 | Minnesota actually stayed in the game with a much better Raiders team despite losing Adrian Peterson before half time. Toby Gerhart was absolutely worthless but Christian Ponder, despite what his stat line may say, played well once again. |
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27 (27) | Seahawks | 4-6 | Pete Carrol is getting the most out of the talent he has in Seattle, but unfortunately for him that’s not much. Regardless, Seattle plays great at home and will enjoy playing a spoiler role this year. |
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28 (26) | Cardinals | 3-7 | Yeah, hate to break it to you guys but John Skelton isn’t the answer in Arizona. Once Kevin Kolb comes back, he will be welcomed with open arms (again). |
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29 (30) | Browns | 4-6 | Cleveland pulled out a win in the Toilet Bowl at home against Jacksonville, and perhaps in a moral victory held Maurice Jones-Drew to only 87 yards on the ground. Yes, Chris Ogbonnaya outran MJD by just under 30 yards.. |
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30 (31) | Redskins | 3-7 | For as bad as the Redskins are, especially with their injuries, you have to give them credit: they keep games close. An overtime spoiler win against a streaking Dallas team would’ve been great for the team morale. |
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31 (25) | Rams | 2-8 | An ugly year gets uglier for the Rams after a blowout loss at home. This is the team that was supposed to dominate their division. The NFC West continues to prove it is one of the more absurd group of teams in the league. |
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32 (32) | Colts | 0-10 | The Colts played tough against the bye but unfortunately couldn’t pull out their first W of the season. Curtis Painter, despite throwing for 0 yards on the bye week, managed one of his higher yardage totals of the year. |
Week 11 Power Rankings
| 2011 Power Rankings: Week 11 | ||||
| RK (LW) | TEAM | REC | COMMENT | |
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1 (1) | Packers | 9-0 | Quelled concerns about their weak defense this week, allowing only 7 points. |
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2 (2) | 49ers | 8-1 | Squeaked out a win against a strong Giants team without the help of their best offensive weapon, Frank Gore. |
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3 (4) | Saints | 7-3 | Saints will certainly be buying Mike Smith a Christmas present this year after he gift-wrapped that game in overtime to them. |
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4 (6) | Steelers | 7-3 | Steelers stopped the surging Bengals dead in their tracks after 5 straight wins on the road. This W could be huge at the end of the season. |
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5 (10) | Patriots | 6-3 | We all knew Brady and Belichick weren’t losing 3 straight, especially not to the Jets, but who saw that onslaught coming? |
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6 (9) | Giants | 6-3 | Without starting RB Bradshaw and half-without starting LB Boley, the Giants came up about 10 yards short of going into overtime against the #2 ranked 9ers. Eli looks unstoppable when he’s on the same page as his recievers. |
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7 (12) | Bears | 6-3 | The Bears are on cruise control right now; Mike Martz has the offense moving and Lovie Smith’s defense has stepped up and played great the past 4 weeks. |
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8 (3) | Ravens | 6-3 | Not sure if John Harbaugh was copying his brother Jim by not running with his star back this week, but the results were as expected. Flacco threw the ball 52 times while Rice ran it 5 times, and the Ravens were upset in embarrassing fashion. |
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9 (14) | Cowboys | 5-4 | With the Dream Team a nightmare and the Giants dropping a game, the streaking Cowboys have a shot at the NFC East title. Romo has looked great in November so far as usual, and their pass rush has been relentless. |
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10 (8) | Texans | 7-3 | They won again and were originally ranked #4 until news of Schaub being out for the year. Can Leinart manage games effectively to keep them in the top 10? |
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11 (5) | Lions | 6-3 | America’s favorite team earlier this year is beginning to fade into obscurity. Stafford looks lost and the defense hasn’t picked them up. |
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12 (7) | Bengals | 6-3 | Painful loss to Pittsburgh at home, but the Bengals need to bounce back quickly in a very competitive AFC North. They absolutely need AJ Green back ASAP. |
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13 (11) | Jets | 5-4 | The offense needs to figure out an identity and the defense just needs to plain play better. Revis is having his expected spectacular year, but the rest of the defense has been pedestrian. |
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14 (15) | Falcons | 5-4 | I’m sure this has been talked about ad nauseam but what in the world was Mike Smith thinking? That’s a season defining blunder. |
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15 (22) | Raiders | 5-4 | Carson Palmer looked sharp against a very solid Chargers secondary and Michael Bush left Raiders fans feeling comfortable if Darren McFadden ever goes down with an injury again. Expect this team to creep up the list if Palmer stays consistent. |
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16 (13) | Bills | 5-4 | The wheels are coming off the wagon the Bills are used to circling. Their once top 10 defense has been abysmal the past two weeks and they’ve only been able to put together 9 PPG in that stretch. What is up with Ryan Fitzpatrick? |
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17 (19) | Titans | 5-4 | They suddenly have a shot at the division with Matt Schaub out for the year. Matt Hasselbeck has to stay sharp (and healthy) and CJ2K needs to produce like he finally did this week. |
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18 (16) | Eagles | 3-6 | I can understand a loss to the Bears, but a Cardinals upset at HOME? Andy Reid is under some serious fire right now, and I’m not sure he’s a valid scapegoat at this point. |
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19 (17) | Buccaneers | 4-5 | Bucs dropped their third straight in a game they were never even in. The offense has not been in sync all year, and without the running game and passing game complementing each other well, both fall apart in Tampa’s system. |
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20 (18) | Chargers | 4-5 | This team should not be under .500 with the talent they possess, yet they sit tied with the Denver Broncos for second in the division at 4-5. |
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21 (20) | Chiefs | 4-5 | As if the injury to star running back Jamaal Charles wasn’t enough for an already slow offense, it looks as if Matt Cassel will be out indefinitely. Tyler Palko’s not leading this team anywhere without a run game. |
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22 (23) | Jaguars | 3-6 | It wasn’t pretty, but the Jags managed to get their 3rd win against a pretty horrible Colts team. Call me greedy, but I expected a lot more than 114 yards from MJD. |
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23 (24) | Vikings | 2-7 | Christian Ponder is clearly going through rookie hardships but he has definitely shown promise. This past week’s game in Lambeau will be great experience for him down the road, regardless of the lopsided score. |
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24 (26) | Panthers | 2-7 | Defenses are beginning to figure out Newton, who has thrown for under a 65 passer rating in 2 of the last 4 weeks. Still, his raw potential is unreal, he just needs some defensive help. |
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25 (26) | Broncos | 4-5 | Complete opposite to the Chargers, this team should not be anywhere near .500 with the minimal talent they possesses, but here they sit at 4-5 tied with the Chargers and Chiefs for 2nd place in the division. |
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26 (28) | Cardinals | 3-6 | Watch out San Francisco, you’ve got company! Well, not exactly, but the Cardinals did their best impression of the rival 49ers this week coming back to beat Philly in the city of brotherly love. |
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27 (29) | Seahawks | 3-6 | Like the Cardinals, the Seahawks managed an impressive win against an inconsistent Raven’s team. The Hawks and their 12th man basically had their way with Baltimore. |
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28 (30) | Dolphins | 2-7 | Holy crap, the Dolphins are on an actual winning streak? Matt Moore has been quietly managing games effectively while Brandon Marshall is finally stepping it up n Miami. |
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29 (31) | Rams | 2-7 | Phew, that was a close one. The Rams somehow used some voodoo magic to make the Browns miss a chipshot field goal with under 2 minutes to go. Steven Jackson continues to be a lone bright spot for St. Louis. |
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30 (27) | Browns | 3-6 | Colt McCoy is so mediocre it’s incredible, and without their #1 and #2 running backs, the Browns offense stands no chance. It’s a shame, because their defense isn’t playing too bad, especially their secondary. |
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31 (25) | Redskins | 3-6 | Who’s their starting quarterback? Their starting runningback? Heck, their starting wide receivers? With Coach Shanny constantly flipping in and out Rex Grossman and John Beck as well as Roy Helu and Ryan Torain, this team is never going to gel. |
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32 (32) | Colts | 0-10 | I don’t have much to say because this team is just so awful. Curtis Painter threw for under 100 yards for the second straight game (Yes..ONE HUNDRED), and the run game and defense are non-existent. The only interesting story following this team is what they’ll do with their #1 draft pick. |
Week 10 Power Rankings
We saw some shuffling atop this weeks NFL power rankings, as two top 10 teams were upset this weekend:
| 2011 Power Rankings: Week 8 | ||||
| RK (LW) | TEAM | REC | COMMENT | |
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1 (1) | Packers | 8-0 | The Pack allow a lot of yards and points on defense, but Aaron Rodgers is having one of the best years a quarterback has ever had in NFL history. He’s on pace to pass for 48 touchdowns and 6 picks all while completing 72.5% of his passes. |
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2 (3) | 49ers | 7-1 | The Niners remain the only team with 1 loss in the NFL in a typical 49er win this weekend against the Redskins. Coach of the year candidate Jim Harbaugh has their defense playing out of its mind (#1 in scoring and run defense) and Frank Gore has rushed for 100 yards in 5 straight games. |
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3 (8) | Ravens | 6-2 | When Joe Flacco goes, the Ravens go, and he delivered Sunday. Leading a clutch drive down the field against the rival Steelers helped Baltimore just as much in the standings as it did mentally for the team. |
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4 (6) | Saints | 6-3 | The Saints responded to a blowout win against the winless Rams in the best way possible – by dominating a division rival. Brees looked great against a Bucs secondary that has held him in check in the past, completing 75% of his 36 throws and hitting the 100+ QB rating mark for the 5th time this year. |
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5 (4) | Lions | 6-2 | This weeks game against the Chicago Bears has huge implications on the NFC North standings and can solidify the Lions as true contenders. Coming off a bye, they need to come out fresh against a strong Bears team coming off an impressive win in Philly. |
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6 (2) | Steelers | 6-3 | They played tough against Baltimore but their defense came up short despite the Ravens receivers doing all they could to give that game to Pittsburgh. No time to feel sorry about that loss, as they travel to Cincinnati to play the first place Bengals (I just really wanted to say “First Place Bengals”). |
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7 (9) | Bengals | 6-2 | The rookie combination of Andy Dalton and AJ Green has been terrific so far this year and the defense has been unreal ranking in the top 10 in both passing AND rush defense. |
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8 (10) | Texans | 6-3 | It doesn’t look like anyone in the AFC South is on the same plane as the Texans right now. They’ve developed a great 2 headed monster at running back with Foster and Tate, and Matt Schaub has been making all the throws they’ve needed despite missing his #1 WR. Their defense is in the top 5 for both rushing and passing defense, an incredible improvement from last years secondary. |
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9 (11) | Giants | 6-2 | Sitting atop the NFC East at 6-2, the Giants can really pull away from their division and put talks of their difficult schedule to rest in San Francisco this week. Eli is looking like the quarterback he claimed he was this past off-season, even without starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw or WR Hakeem Nicks. |
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10 (7) | Patriots | 5-3 | Is it safe to say Tom Coughlin has got Bill Belichick figured out? No matter how good Tom Brady plays, he just can’t compensate enough for their terrible secondary. Belichick, known as a defensive genius, needs to figure out how to extract the most out of this minimally talented defense. |
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11 (13) | Jets | 5-3 | Rex Ryan has really figured out his defense, and that’s scary. If the Jets can force a low scoring game against the Patriots at MetLife Stadium this week, they’ll all but guarantee themselves a victory thanks to the aforementioned Patriots secondary…Even if Mark Sanchez is the Jets QB. |
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12 (12) | Bears | 5-3 | One of two teams in the NFL that have a distinctly deceptive record, at 5-3 the Bears are keeping under the radar in 3rd place in the NFC North. Don’t let that fool you, this team has loads of offensive talent beginning with Matt Forte who leads the league in yards from scrimmage. The biggest question is if Lovie Smith’s defense can consistently step up to push them over the top. |
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13 (5) | Bills | 5-3 | Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! Well, not quite this week, as the Bills were only able to muster 287 total yards (most of it garbage yards) against the suffocating Jets defense. The Bills need to get their high scoring offense back in a hurry or they’ll lose hold of a piece of 1st in the AFC East. |
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14 (16) | Cowboys | 4-4 | The Jekyll and Hyde Cowboys are impossible to predict, and what contributes most to this inconsistency is the erratic play of QB Tony Romo. Besides week 1 and 2, Romo has struggled to put up 2 consecutive weeks of solid football. Prove me wrong, Tony, and you’ll be knocking on the Giants door for 1st place. |
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15 (18) | Falcons | 5-3 | The Falcons are within striking distance of the Saints thanks to the horrible Colts. Don’t let the stats fool you though, especially Matt Ryan’s numbers. Sure, he had two bomb touchdowns to rookie receiver Julio Jones, but take those two away and Ryan’s statline is 12/22 for about 145 yards, a touchdown and a pick. In his 3 games previous Ryan threw for 3 TDs and 4 INTs. |
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16 (14) | Eagles | 3-5 | Just when we thought we had the Dream Team chugging along, the Eagles weaknesses are exposed again. While loading up CBs, Philly forgot to fill out the other aspects of their defense, especially their LBs and safeties. Expect them to continue to get run on, which prevents their explosive offense from ever getting in a rhythm. |
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17 (19) | Buccaneers | 4-4 | The Bucs are beginning to struggle and it doesn’t look like there’s any good news in the future too. Tampa lost stud DT Gerald McCoy for a second straight year to a torn bicep on Sunday, which compounded with Frank Okam’s injury left a gaping hole in the Bucs run defense. Unless QB Josh Freeman and RB Legarrette Blount play like the duo of last year and then some, they’ll be swallowed up by their mighty division. |
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18 (20) | Chargers | 4-4 | New year, same old Chargers. Despite putting up eye-popping numbers, Philip Rivers and his squad continue to be careless with the ball. The Chargers turnover ratio is -8, good for 2nd worst in the league. In lieu of this, they still hold a 3-team tie for first place in the AFC West and easily have one of the more talented teams in the conference. Will this team break out, or will they continue to disappoint? |
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19 (17) | Titans | 4-4 | Chris Johnson looked promising on Sunday..in his first four snaps. CJ.01K continued his struggles this week against a stout Bengals rush D. Matt Hasselbeck did all he could to keep the Titans in it, but their below average defense has and will continue to be their downfall against the better teams of the league. |
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20 (15) | Chiefs | 4-4 | What better way to come off a huge division win at home than to lay an egg against one of the worst teams in football in their stadium? The Chiefs struggled to get anything going on the ground, which is absolutely essential to their offense. On the defensive side of the ball, they looked pathetic making never-has-beens Reggie Bush and Matt Moore look like Pro Bowlers. |
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21 (22) | Panthers | 2-6 | I can’t remember a year that had two rookie quarterbacks playing as well as Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are this year. What’s impressive about Newton is that he came from a spread offense that didn’t translate to the NFL at all. He’s been carrying this team without even having proper experience in an NFL-type offense. The future is bright, Carolina. |
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22 (21) | Raiders | 4-4 | I know it’s only been two weeks but is Oakland seeing that an over the hill Carson Palmer wasn’t worth what they gave up? The good news is, the Raiders almost won without Darren McFadden and two fluke long TDs against them. If Palmer gets back to form this season, the Raiders can definitely compete for the sloppy AFC West. |
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23 (25) | Jaguars | 2-6 | Watch out Indy, Blaine Gabbert has had a full week to analyze your menacing defense. Really though, since Gabbert was thrown into the starting role after a messy handling of quarterbacks, he has stumbled along getting demolished in the process. With a bye week of preparation and a terrible defense in his sights, Gabbert should put together a solid game, providing a much needed confidence boost. |
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24 (26) | Vikings | 2-6 | Speaking of rookie QBs coming off a bye, Christian Ponder has a delightful surprise waiting for him after his relaxation week: Lambeau Field. Unlike Gabbert, there’s probably not enough preparation Ponder can do to get ready to play the Packers let alone in Lambeau. Even though the Vikings played the Packers tight earlier this year with Ponder, I can’t imagine it being as close this week. |
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25 (23) | Redskins | 3-5 | The free fall continues for the ailing Redskins. John Beck is everything we thought he’d be, incredibly average to below average. What is promising for Redskins fans is their front 7, which continues to look completely dominant. |
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26 (29) | Broncos | 3-5 | Tim Tebow is having the last laugh a week after getting destroyed by the media and league. Following their upset against the Raiders Sunday, the Broncos are now one game out of the AFC West. What is wrong with those west coast divisions? |
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27 (24) | Browns | 3-5 | The score of last weeks game, as bad as it was (30-12), doesn’t even speak to what a blowout this game was. Let’s put it this way: Matt Schaub only had to complete 14 passes for 119 yards to blow out the plummeting Browns. The Texans managed to have two 100 yard rushers against the paltry Cleveland rush defense. |
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28 (28) | Cardinals | 2-6 | Special teams prevailed for Arizona this past weekend, as a blocked FG and a 99 yard punt return TD by Patrick Peterson was the difference against the Rams. There wasn’t much more to brag about from the Cardinals perspective, they gave up a ton of rushing yards and back to back safeties, but a W is a W in the NFC West. |
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29 (27) | Seahawks | 2-6 | Even though the Seahawks lost by 10 there was a silver lining: Beast Mode was back! Marshawn Lynch blew up for 139 yards and the defense early on was able to slow the Cowboys down enough to keep them in the game. The Seahawks can easily be the 2nd best team in the NFC West if they can get consistent QB play. |
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30 (31) | Dolphins | 1-7 | A week after I pointed out how they almost blew the Luck sweepstakes the Dolphins go ahead and get off the schneid (and subsequently ruin my Chiefs bet). Matt Moore and Reggie Bush were picking up chunks of yards without a problem and their defense came up huge. Funny how benching drunk players can help your team. |
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31 (30) | Rams | 1-7 | One would think Sam Bradford returning from injury with a new weapon in Brandon Lloyd would be a recipe for a win against one of the worst teams in football. Instead, the Rams looked miserable besides Steven Jackson, who is having an unreal but ultimately useless year. |
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32 (32) | Colts | 0-9 | You know your team’s bad when Dan “Running out of the end zone safety” Orlovsky has to come in for relief work. I’m still debating whether that was actually a sound move considering how awful Painter looked or if they were just making sure they locked in Luck even more. |
Week 9 Picks
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-8)
ATL (-7), O/U: 44.5
By the Numbers:
Atlanta Indianapolis
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 2-6
SU: 4-3 SU: 0-8
PPG: 22.6 PPG: 15.1
PA: 23.3 PA: 31.5
O/U: 3-4 O/U: 6-2
Trends:
Atlanta is 17-7 ATS in dome games in the last 3 seasons (++ATL)
Atlanta is 10-4 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (++ATL)
Atlanta is 1-3 ATS in road games this season (-ATL)
Atlanta is 1-2 ATS as a favorite (only win is vs. Carolina, both losses are on the road) (-ATL)
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS when playing with 6 days of rest or less (-IND)
Indianapolis is 1-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 (-IND)
Indianapolis is allowing 402.9 yards/game (–IND)
Indianapolis is averaging 8.7 points in the first half (–IND)
Other useful information:
Atlanta has won 2 straight games ATS (+ATL)
Atlanta’s last three games have gone UNDER the total
Indianapolis’ games from week 2-7 have gone OVER the total
Indianapolis has lost 4 straight games ATS (-IND)
Injuries:
ATL: Julio Jones “?” (Hamstring), Matt Ryan “Probable” (Ankle), Ovie Mughelli “Doubtful” (Knee)
IND: Blair White “?” (Knee)
Recap:
The Falcons started off slow this year but seem to be putting it together as they have won 3 out of their last 4. They have had a tough road schedule so far, taking on the Bears, Bucs and Lions, and this game gives the Falcons a chance to get themselves back into the division race. With there being a guaranteed loser in the Saints-Bucs matchup, Atlanta is in prime position to pick up a game on one of these teams. Indianapolis allows the second most yards per game in the NFL and they’re facing a Falcons offense that features Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, and Matt Ryan. Gonzalez is old, but he still produces surprisingly well for a 35 year old vet, and Jones looks to be well on his way to returning this week.
On the other side of the ball, Curtis Painter has been a mess in his past 3 games and is going up against a Falcons secondary which has the 5th highest interception total in the league. The Colts will be forced to throw the ball once they go down against the potent Falcons offense, and you can bet the Dirty Bird’s secondary will be foaming at the mouth to add to their interception total. With the opportunity to pick up an important game in the division, the Falcons won’t sleep on Indy in this one, and they’ll have no problem putting up points to cover this big spread.
Pick:
Atlanta: 27 Indianapolis: 10
ATL (-7) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Under 44.5 (Correct)
Actual: Atlanta: 31 Indianapolis: 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) @ New Orleans Saints (5-3)
NO (-8), O/U 50
By the Numbers:
Tampa Bay New Orleans
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 4-4
SU: 4-3 SU: 5-3
PPG: 18.7 PPG: 32.5
PA: 24.1 PA: 23.6
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 5-3
Trends:
Tampa Bay is 11-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (++TB)
Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS this season against division opponents (+TB)
Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in dome games in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (++TB)
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (++TB)
Tampa Bay is 13-4 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this year) (++TB)
New Orleans is 4-10 ATS in the last 3 seasons against division opponents (–NO)
New Orleans is 3-0 ATS as home favorites of 7.5-10 in the last 3 seasons (+NO)
New Orleans is 3-0 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (+NO)
Other useful information:
Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS this season when rushing for 100+ yards (+TB)
Tampa Bay is 2-2 straight up this season when they are underdogs
Tampa Bay has had 2 straight games UNDER the total
New Orleans allows 124 rushing yards per game (–NO)
New Orleans is 5-2 straight up this season when they are favorites (+NO)
New Orleans has had 2 straight games OVER the total
Injuries:
TB: LeGarrette Blount “?” (Leg)
NO: Mark Ingram “?” (Heel)
Recap:
Tampa Bay strives in divisional matchups. With LeGarrette Blount expected to return after the extra week off, I don’t see the Saints being able to slow him down. Usually with a high scoring offense you would expect a team’s defense to surrender a lot of pass yards as a result of opponents playing catch up. This is not the case with the Saints D, which speaks measures as to how much they struggle against the run. Look for Tampa to establish Blount early and often, especially because Blount has publicly stated he expects to play a big role on Sunday.
I also don’t know how the Saints are going to respond after their inexplicable loss to St. Louis last week. In their earlier matchup, the Bucs secondary had fun with Drew Brees, picking him off three times. Being the veteran that he is, I expect him to change his game plan from last time he struggled and do enough for his team to get the win, but with limited time of possession from Tampa’s run game, it won’t be enough to cover this large spread.
Pick:
New Orleans: 24 Tampa Bay: 20
TB (+8) -110 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$220)
Under 50 (Correct)
Actual: New Orleans: 27 Tampa Bay: 16
Cleveland Browns (3-4) @ Houston Texans (5-3)
HOU (-11), O/U: 41
By the Numbers:
Cleveland Houston
ATS: 1-5-1 ATS: 4-3-1
SU: 3-4 SU: 5-3
PPG: 15.3 PPG: 25.8
PA: 20.0 PA: 18.1
O/U: 3-4 O/U: 2-6
Trends:
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS on grass fields this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 8-10 ATS in the last 3 seasons when playing a team with a winning record (0-3 this season) (-CLE)
Cleveland is 13-16 ATS as an underdog in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this year) (-CLE)
Houston is 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season (+HOU)
Houston is 0-1 ATS after two consecutive wins this season (-HOU)
Other useful information:
Cleveland has had 3 straight games UNDER the total
Cleveland is 1-2 SU on the road this season (Only win: week 2 vs. Indianapolis) (-CLE)
Cleveland has only score over 17 points once this season (–CLE)
Cleveland allows 127 rushing yards per game (–CLE)
Houston has had 4 out of their last 5 games UNDER the totals
Houston is 5-1 ATS this season when rushing for 100+ yards (+HOU)
Injuries:
CLE: Peyton Hillis “?” (Hamstring), Montario Hardesty “?” (Calf)
HOU: Andre Johnson “?” (Hamstring)
Recap:
The Texans really seem like they are turning into the team we expected to see the last few years. Every year they get everyone’s hopes up and then collapse and disappoint everyone. I might be falling into their trap again, but this year appears to be different. They are beating the teams that they are supposed to beat and holding their own against the top tier ones. With their new and improved defense to go along with their high powered offense, I don’t see anyway that Cleveland can keep this one close. Cleveland struggles to find the endzone and Houston has scored the 5th most points in the league this year.
The only way the Browns stay in this game is if they stop the run. Unfortunately for them, they’ll be going up against an elite running back for a second consecutive week. Arian Foster will have no problem finding holes and likely the end zone a couple of times. While the Browns secondary has been impressive this year, once Houston goes up they won’t look back. Even when running down the clock, the Texans will be able to score points which makes me confident they’ll cover this spread.
Pick:
Houston: 31 Cleveland: 7
HOU (-11) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Under 41 (Incorrect)
Actual: Houston: 30 Cleveland: 12
New York Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo Bills (5-2)
BUF (-1.5), O/U 44
By the Numbers:
New York Buffalo
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 4-2-1
SU: 4-3 SU: 5-2
PPG: 24.6 PPG: 30.1
PA: 21.7 PA: 21.0
O/U: 5-2 O/U: 6-1
Trends:
New York is 12-5 ATS in the last 3 seasons when the line is between +3 and -3 (1-1 this season) (++NY)
New York’s O/U record is 24-11 in the last 3 seasons against conference opponents
Buffalo’s O/U record is 4-0 this season against conference opponents
Other useful information:
New York has won 2 straight ATS (+NY)
New York is 1-2 ATS as an underdog (-NY)
New York’s 4 out of their last 5 game have gone OVER the total
Buffalo is 1-2 ATS this season as a favorite (2-1 SU in those games) (-BUF)
Injuries:
No significant injuries
Recap:
This matchup appears that it is going to be a classic AFC East rivalry game. There are no significant trends or numbers that stand out to lean me one way or the other. The only thing that appears to be consistent with these two teams is they put up a decent amount of points. So expect pretty high scoring in this one, not a game I would recommend betting, though. Both teams are heating up and this is a huge game with implications in the standings.
Pick:
Buffalo: 28 New York: 24
BUF (-1.5) -110 0 Units (Incorrect, +$0)
Over 44 (Incorrect)
Actual: New York: 27 Buffalo: 11
San Francisco 49ers (6-1) @ Washington Redskins (3-4)
SF (-3), O/U 37.5
By the Numbers:
San Francisco Washington
ATS: 6-0-1 ATS: 3-4
SU: 6-1 SU: 3-4
PPG: 26.7 PPG: 16.6
PA: 15.3 PA: 19.9
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 2-5
Trends:
San Francisco is 4-0 ATS this season when playing with 6 days of rest of less (+SF)
San Francisco is 4-0 ATS on a grass field this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 2-0 ATS when traveling to the east coast for a 1:00 ET game (+SF)
San Francisco is 2-0 ATS in road games this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 13-7 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season) (++SF)
Washington is 0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 this season (-WAS)
Other useful information:
San Francisco is 3-0 SU as a favorite this season (+SF)
San Francisco’s last 2 games have gone UNDER the total
Washington has lost 3 straight games ATS (-WAS)
Washington’s 5 out of their last 6 games have gone UNDER the total
Washington is 1-1 ATS as home underdogs this season
Injuries:
SF: No significant injuries
WASH: Phillip Buchanon “?” (Neck), Fred Davis “?” (Foot), Tashard Choice “Doubtful” (Hamstring)
Recap:
A situation like Sunday’s 49ers Redskins game would usually have trap game written all over it. Historically, west coast teams traveling to the east coast for an early game have struggled. This year, however, has been the complete opposite. The 49ers came to Cincinnati and Philadelphia for early games and won both straight up. Alex Smith isn’t putting up eye-popping numbers, but between Frank Gore going off and their stout defense, John Beck and the Redskins are in for a long afternoon. The 49ers don’t score much, but they’ll put up enough to cover the spread against the injury-depleted ‘Skins, as Walter mentions, “No. 1 receiver? Gone. No. 1 running back? Gone. Left tackle? Gone. Left guard? Gone. No. 2 Tight end? Gone. Starting quarterback from Week 1? Benched. Oh, and added this week: No. 1 tight end? Ankle sprain; could be out. ” Of course, Walter, of course, inexplicably picked the Redskins. Check out Walters Falters for more of Walter’s week 9 shenanigans!
Pick:
49ers: 21 Redskins: 3
SF (-3) -125 – 3 Units (Correct, +$300)
Under 37.5 (Correct)
Actual: San Francisco: 19 Washington: 11
Seattle Seahawks (2-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
DAL (-11.5), O/U 44
By the Numbers:
Seattle Dallas
ATS: 3-3-1 ATS: 3-3-1
SU: 2-5 SU: 3-4
PPG: 15.6 PPG: 22.3
PA: 23.1 PA: 23.1
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 3-4
Trends:
Seattle is 0-4 ATS in the last 3 seasons as an underdog of 10+ points (0-1 this season) (-SEA)
Seattle is 4-16 ATS in the last 3 seasons in road games (1-2 this season) (–SEA)
Dallas is 2-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 10+ points (1-0 this season) (+DAL)
Dallas is 0-1 ATS this season in their next game after a divisional matchup (-DAL)
Other useful information:
Seattle’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Seattle is 2-0 SU when rushing for 100+ yards (2-0 ATS)
Seattle is 0-5 SU when rushing for under 100+ yards (1-3-1 ATS)
Dallas has had 3 straight games go UNDER the total
Dallas is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite this season (-DAL)
Dallas allows 94 rushing yards per game
Injuries:
SEA: Chris Clemons “?” (Knee)
DAL: Michael Jenkins “?” (Hamstring), Sean Lee “Out” (Wrist)
Recap:
The Seattle Seahawks are a completely different team away from home. They really feed off that home crowd and use the 12th man to their advantage. Playing in Jerry Land is never easy to do, and with the Cowboys coming off a blowout loss on national TV, Jerry Jones is going to have his team out for blood. Here, let me give you a little example of what I expect this game to be: 
Seattle is the poor little innocent girl who thinks she has a chance against the big boys…Unfortunately, we all see what an angry Cowboys squad has to say about that.
The combination of the Cowboys coming off an embarrassing loss on national television, Seattle’s horrible QB situation, and the Seahawks terrible ATS record as a road team the past three years really tempts me to put units on this game, but Tarvaris Jackson actually looked pretty good in relief and the Seahawks did beat the Giants straight up in New York, so I’ll resist.
Pick:
Dallas: 31 Seattle: 17
DAL (-11.5) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 44 (Incorrect)
Actual: Dallas: 23 Seattle: 13
Miami Dolphins (0-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
KC (-4), O/U: 40
By the Numbers:
Miami Kansas City
ATS: 2-5 ATS: 5-2
SU: 0-7 SU: 4-3
PPG: 15.3 PPG: 18.3
PA: 23.7 PA: 24.3
O/U: 1-6 O/U: 3-4
Trends:
Miami is 14-16 ATS against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons (1-5 this season) (MIA)
Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5-7 this season (-MIA)
Miami is 1-3 ATS against AFC West opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-MIA)
Miami’s O/U record is 1-5 against conference opponents this season
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS against AFC East opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-KC)
Kansas City is 0-1 ATS as a favorite this season (-KC)
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS against conference opponents this season (+KC)
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS on grass fields this season (+KC)
Other useful information:
Miami has had 6 straight games go UNDER the total
Miami is 2-2 ATS on the road
Miami has lost 3 out of their last 4 ATS (-MIA)
Kansas City has had 4 out of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
Kansas City has won 5 straight games ATS (++KC)
Injuries:
MIA: Mike Pouncey “?” (Head), Daniel Thomas “?” (Hamstring), Vontae Davis “?” (Hamstring)
KC: Jon McGraw “?” (Shoulder)
Recap:
Miami is terrible no matter where they play, but the Arrowhead crowd won’t make things any easier for them. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are on fire, winning 4 straight games to jump into first place in the AFC West. Not only has KC been winning straight up, they also have been killing it against the spread lately.
If Miami was smart, they’d throw away this season and use their draft pick to get Stanford star Andrew Luck. Matt Moore cannot lead a team in which their top receiver hasn’t recorded a touchdown this season (Brandon Marshall). Moore leads a passing offense that is 25th ranked, while Brandon Flowers and the Chiefs secondary looked impenetrable at times against a much more talented 6th ranked San Diego offense. Don’t expect Miami to give it their all in this one, and even if they do, Kansas City should continue to ride their hot streak.
Pick:
Kansas City: 21 Miami: 7
KC (-4) -110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, -$110)
Under 40 (Correct)
Actual: Miami: 31 Kansas City: 3
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) @ Tennessee Titans (4-3)
TEN (-3), O/U 42
By the Numbers:
Cincinnati Tennessee
ATS: 6-1 ATS: 3-4
SU: 5-2 SU: 4-3
PPG: 24.4 PPG: 19.9
PA: 17.6 PA: 20.7
O/U: 6-1 O/U: 4-3
Trends:
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS against conference opponents this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati’s O/U record is 5-0 against conference opponents this season
Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS on grass fields this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 16-8 ATS as an underdog in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season) (++CIN)
Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in road games this season (++CIN)
Cincinnati averages 28.2 PPG on the road this season (++CIN)
Tennessee is 0-1 as a home favorite of 3 points or less this season (-TENN)
Tennessee is 1-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+TENN)
Other useful information:
Cincinnati has won 4 straight games ATS (+CIN)
Cincinnati has had 4 straight games go OVER the total
Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS when allowing less than 100 rushing yards this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati has score 22+ points in all but one game this season (13-8 loss to San Francisco) (++CIN)
Tennessee’s 3 of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Tennessee has only rushed for 100+ yards once this season (112 yards in 31-13 win @ Cleveland) (-TENN)
Tennessee has allowed 13, 14, 13 and 10 points in their wins (16, 38 and 41 points in their losses)
Injuries:
CIN: Jermaine Gresham “?” (Hamstring), Adam Jones “?” (Hamstring), Cedric Benson “Probable” (suspension)
TEN: No significant injuries
Recap:
This is my biggest play of the week. Tennessee has one win against a team over .500 (Baltimore) and has no right to be favored against a Cincinnati team that has been winning pretty convincingly. The road hasn’t been a problem for the Bengals as rookie QB Andy Dalton is exceeding expectations so far. Their defense in one of the tops in the league and Chris Johnson might not last this whole game rushing the ball. The Bengals #2 rush defense will have no problem shutting down the underachieving Chris Johnson (or Javon Ringer, if he replaces him). The Titans will be in 3rd and long situations the whole game and I wouldn’t trust this team with the game in the hands of Matt Hasselbeck.
On top of the Bengals favorable matchup for their defense, the trends are all clearly pointing in Cincinnati’s direction. Tennessee loses when they’re allow more than 14 points per game, and Cinci’s offense has been firing on all cylinders. The addition of Cedric Benson back into the starting lineup only helps their cause. A hot team with a quarterback who doesn’t waver on the road getting points against an unproven “winning” team? 4 units.
Pick:
Cincinnati: 31 Tennessee: 17
CIN (+3) -125 – 4 Units (Correct, +$400)
Over 42 (Correct)
Actual: Cincinnati: 24 Tennessee: 17
St. Louis Rams (1-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
ARI (-3), O/U 41.5
By the Numbers:
St. Louis Arizona
ATS: 1-6 ATS: 3-4
SU: 1-6 SU: 1-6
PPG: 12.4 PPG: 20.4
PA: 27.4 PA: 26.1
O/U: 3-3-1 O/U: 4-3
Trends:
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS against conference opponents this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 18-21 ATS in the last 3 seasons (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS on turf fields this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 5-2 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (+STL)
Arizona is 1-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 this season (+ARI)
Arizona is 10-16 ATS in dome games in the last 3 seasons (1-3 this season) (-ARI)
Arizona is 4-9 ATS against division opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-ARI)
Other useful information:
St. Louis’ 3 out of their last 4 games have gone UNDER the total
St. Louis lost their first 6 games ATS before last week’s win vs. New Orleans
St. Louis has put up 16 points or less in 6 out of their 7 games (-STL)
Arizona’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Arizona has lost 4 out of their last 5 ATS (-ARI)
Arizona is 1-0 ATS as a home favorite this season (1-1 as a favorite anywhere) (+ARI)
Injuries:
STL: Sam Bradford “?” (Ankle), Danario Alexander “?” (Hamstring)
ARI: Kevin Kolb “Doubtful” (Foot), Beanie Wells “Probable” (Knee)
Recap:
We might be seeing a matchup of backup quarterbacks in this already unexciting NFC West showdown. A.J. Feeley has actually been fairing decent as Bradford’s backup, while John Skelton might be seeing his first action of the season as Kevin Kolb nurses turf toe. There’s not much to base this one on. The trends say that both teams just suck against the spread, can we just not have a winner?
Feeley looked good last week and has had an opportunity to get comfortable with the offense. In fact, Bradford hasn’t even been ruled out yet, but the point spread makes em think that Vegas is positive he won’t be playing. Normally I’d take the home team in a game like this but I don’t know how Skelton will be in this one. With the way Steven Jackson was running the ball last week coupled with the fact that the Rams are high off a win while the Cardinals gave it their all just to blow a late lead to the Ravens, I’ll take the points.
Pick:
St. Louis: 17 Arizona: 10
STL (+3) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 41 (Correct)
Actual: Arizona: 19 St. Louis: 13
New York Giants (5-2) @ New England Patriots (5-2)
NE (-8.5), O/U 51
By the Numbers:
New York New England
ATS: 3-3-1 ATS: 4-3
SU: 5-2 SU: 5-2
PPG: 24.9 PPG: 28.9
PA: 23.4 PA: 22.9
O/U: 5-2 O/U: 4-3
Trends
New York is 1-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 this season (+NY)
New York is 1-7 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (–NY)
New York is 4-12 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (–NY)
New York is 2-1 ATS in road games this season (+NY)
New York averages 24.7 PPG in road games this season (++NY)
New England is 13-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 in the last 3 seasons (4-2 this season) (+NE)
New England is 11-9 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+NE)
New England averages 28.3 PPG in home games this season (++NE)
Other useful information:
New York’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
New England’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone UNDER the total
New England has lost 2 straight games ATS (-NE)
New England is 1-0 ATS following a straight up loss this season (+NE)
New England scored 30+ points in their first 5 games this season (20 and 17 in next 2)
Injuries:
NYG: Hakeem Nicks “?” (Hamstring), Ahmad Bradshaw OUT
NE: Shaun Ellis “?” (Ribs), Julian Edelman “?” (Ankle)
Recap:
In recent years, the Giants have started off impressive only to flame out as the year went on. This matchup against the Patriots marks the beginning of possibly the toughest second half schedule in the history of the NFL. The Giants are also known for playing up or down to the level of their competition and the Patriots are towards the top in competition. I don’t expect the Giants to come out flat, but I just expect Tom Brady to be better. After a loss, Brady usually puts up crazy numbers the following week. Following the Patriots last 3 losses with Brady under center, the Pro Bowl QB is a combined 67/100 for 828 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 picks.
While the Giants have been able to put up points this year, and will have no trouble doing so against a terrible Patriots secondary, they may be a bit hobbled coming into this game. The Giants 4th ranked passing offense will likely be missing its best reciever, Hakeem Nicks. Nicks missed practice Wednesday which is never a good sign, especially for the WR position. Yes, Victor Cruz will step in and the Giants pass game will be more than serviceable without Nicks, but I think the loss of Nicks will slow them down enough to not backdoor this spread. The Patriots have an underrated rush defense (9th in the league) and the Giants run game this season has been slow to develop so don’t expect much contribution from them. Besides, this game will be a shootout, so forcing a run game is going to hurt the Giants more than help.
EDIT: Ahmad Bradshaw is out “indefinitely” so this just makes us all the more confident. I’d grab 8.5 before it shoots up from this news.
Pick:
Patriots: 38 Giants: 24
NE (-8.5) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 51 (Incorrect)
Actual: New York: 24 New England: 20
Denver Broncos (2-5) @ Oakland Raiders (4-3)
OAK (-7.5), O/U 42.5
By the Numbers:
Denver Oakland
ATS: 2-5 ATS: 5-2
SU: 2-5 SU: 4-3
PPG: 19.0 PPG: 22.9
PA: 28.6 PA: 25.4
O/U: 4-2-1 O/U: 2-4-1
Trends:
Denver is 0-2 ATS against division opponents this season (-DEN)
Denver is 0-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season (-DEN)
Oakland is 11-3 ATS against division opponents in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (+OAK)
Other useful information:
Denver’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Denver is 2-1 ATS on the road this season (+DEN)
Denver is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season (-DEN)
Oakland has had 4 straight games go UNDER the total
Oakland is 1-1 as a favorite this season
Oakland is 4-0 ATS when committing 1 or less turnover (1-2 when committing 2+ turnovers) (+OAK)
Injuries:
DEN: Quinton Carter “?” (Concussion)
OAK: Darren McFadden OUT (Foot), Kevin Boss “?” (Concussion)
Recap:
With an extra week to study the playbook and practice, Carson Palmer will not only have a better understanding of the Raiders gameplan, he’ll be more adjusted to the speed of the game. If he’s comfortable with the offense, he should be able to torch a Broncos defense that allows 250 yards per game through the air. McFadden should be a go in this one and could get Palmer into manageable third down situations to move the chain. Even if McFadden doesn’t play, Michael Bush is one of the better backup running backs in the game. Denver has only a mediocre rush defense, and if Palmer is hitting on deep routes, this’ll make it even easier for McBush to pick up big chunks of yards. As for Palmer hitting those passes, I doubt this will be a problem as the Broncos allow the 2nd highest completion percentage to opponents, a staggering 68%. That’s really freakin’ bad.
On the other side, Tim Tebow will continue to struggle simply because he is not ready to be successful as an NFL quarterback. Tebow’s accuracy has been a huge issue, and Oakland boasts the 3rd best pass defense in terms of opponent completion percentage at 53%. That’s really freakin’ good.
I expect the Raiders to bounce back from the embarrassing debacle that happened in Kansas City two weeks ago and get back on the winning side. There are hardly any offensive weapons on Denver now that they shipped Brandon Lloyd off to St. Louis and their next threat, Willis McGahee, is just coming off surgery. The uncertainty of Palmer being acquainted enough with the offense is what is stopping me from putting units on this bet.
Pick:
Oakland: 31 Denver: 10
OAK (-7.5) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 42.5 (Incorrect)
Actual: Denver: 38 Oakland: 24
Green Bay Packers (7-0) @ San Diego Chargers (4-3)
GB (-5.5), O/U 51
By the Numbers:
Green Bay San Diego
ATS: 5-2 ATS: 2-5
SU: 7-0 SU: 4-3
PPG: 32.9 PPG: 23.0
PA: 20-1 PA: 22.7
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 3-4
Trends:
Green Bay is 29-14 ATS in the last 3 seasons (++GB)
Green Bay is 14-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5-7 in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (++GB)
Green Bay is 21-9 ATS on grass fields in the last 3 season (4-1 this season) (++GB)
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS after two straight wins this season (+GB)
San Diego is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this season (-SD)
San Diego is 7-1 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (++SD)
San Diego is 9-4 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons. (+SD)
Other useful Information:
Green Bay’s 2 out of their last 3 games have gone UNDER the total
Green Bay has won 4 out of their last 5 ATS (+GB)
Green Bay allows 103 rushing yards per game this season
San Diego’s 2 out of their last 3 games have gone OVER the total
San Diego has lost 2 straight games ATS (-SD)
San Diego is 0-3 ATS when rushing for less than 100 yards
Injuries:
GB: Sam Shields “Probable” (Concussion)
SD: Ryan Mathews “?” (Groin), Mike Tolbert “Probable” (Foot), Shaun Phillips “?” (Foot)
Recap:
Betting against Aaron Rodgers would just be silly right now. He is in his own league when it comes to quarterbacks and the only way that Green Bay doesn’t cover this game is if they beat themselves. With that being said, the Chargers have enough fire power to keep pace with the Packers, but I believe the short week will hurt them in the end. Green Bay is coming off their bye and will be well rested and prepared. San Diego, however is coming off an emotional overtime loss where they really gave everything they had only to lose in heartbreaking fashion.
Philip Rivers is putting up good numbers but not the numbers we’ve come to expect of him this season and their defense while on paper has been great, hasn’t translated all that well on the field. They’ll be slow and sluggish and I can inundate you with statistics about how good Rodgers and the Packers offense is, but I think their track record speaks for itself. Matt Cassell moved the ball pretty well on San Diego’s secondary, so Rodgers and the Pack should be able to cruise in this one as long as their defense keeps the Chargers offense in check. That may seem like a tall task considering the Packers allow 289 passing yards per game, but that statistic is skewed by the fact that teams are constantly throwing the ball against the Packers because they’re playing catch up. Green Bay’s pass defense is actually 14th best in terms of opponents completion percentage and have the second most interceptions in the league.
Pick:
Green Bay: 35 San Diego: 24
GB (-5.5) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Over 51 (Correct)
Actual: Green Bay 45 San Diego: 38
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
PIT (-3), O/U 41.5
By the Numbers:
Baltimore Pittsburgh
ATS: 4-3 ATS: 4-4
SU: 5-2 SU: 6-2
PPG: 26.4 PPG: 22.0
PA: 15.7 PA: 17.4
O/U: 5-2 O/U: 4-4
Trends:
Baltimore is 9-7 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+BAL)
Baltimore is 9-11 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (-BAL)
Baltimore is 1-0 ATS against division opponents this season (Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh) (+BAL)
Pittsburgh is 1-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less this season (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in home games this season (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 1-0 ATS when revenging a loss this season (+PIT)
Other useful information:
Baltimore allows 15 PPG on the road this season (+BAL)
Baltimore has lost 2 straight games ATS (Won previous 3) (-BAL)
Baltimore forced 7 turnovers in 35-7 win vs. Pittsburgh in week 1
Pittsburgh has won 2 straight games ATS (+PIT)
Pittsburgh has allowed less than 20 points in every game since week 1 (++PIT)
Injuries:
BAL: Lee Evans “?” (Ankle)
PIT: Hines Ward “?” (Ankle), James Farrior “?” (Calf), LaMarr Woodley “?” (Hamstring)
Recap:
Steelers Ravens games are often an anomaly in today’s NFL. Somehow every game is always exciting, yet low scoring, a breath of fresh air in a league that is obsessed with offense. This Sunday night matchup won’t disappoint, as long as you love old school football. These two teams rank 1 and 2 in terms of total defense but the Steelers are 9th in offense while the Ravens are 14th. Historically these games are separated by 3 points, but the Steelers can cover this 3 point spread because their offense is starting to pick up. Ben Roethlisberger has been hot the past few weeks and has lead the Steelers to the #8 passing offense in the league.
On the other side, Joe Flacco has been struggling and going up against this Steeler defense that just shut down Tom Brady won’t help him at all. The Steelers secondary has to be on a high after a huge win again Brady while Flacco has left much to be desired since the Ravens week 3 blowout of St. Louis. In his past 4 games, Flacco is an unimpressive 82/153 for 941 yards 1 touchdown and 4 picks.
That all said, I expect this to be a classic slugfest, with Big Ben and his secondary doing just enough to cover the points. Both of these defenses are just too good to allow this game to get out of hand either way.
Pick:
Pittsburgh: 14 Baltimore: 10
PIT (-3) -120 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 41.5 (Incorrect)
Actual: Baltimore: 23 Pittsburgh: 20
Chicago Bears (4-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
PHI (-8), O/U 47
By the Numbers:
Chicago Philadelphia
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 3-4
SU: 4-3 SU: 3-4
PPG: 24.3 PPG: 25.6
PA: 21.4 PA: 21.7
O/U: 3-4 O/U: 3-3-1
Trends:
Chicago is 2-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (–CHI)
Chicago is 1-5 ATS as a road dog of 3.5-7 in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-CHI)
Chicago is 0-1 ATS on Monday night games this season (-CHI)
Philadelphia is 2-0 ATS on Monday night games in the last 3 seasons (+PHI)
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS against NFC North opponents in the last 3 seasons (-PHI)
Other useful information:
Chicago has won 2 straight games ATS (both as favorites, lost 4 straight ATS previous) (+CHI)
Chicago is 0-1 ATS as a road underdog after 2 straight home games (-CHI)
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games ATS (+PHI)
Philadelphia has had 2 straight games go UNDER the total
Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS and SU as home favorite of 7+ this season (-PHI)
Injuries:
CHI: Earl Bennett “?” (Chest), Major Wright “Probable” (Hip)
PHI: No significant injuries
Recap:
Last Sunday night, we saw what the Philadelphia Eagles are capable of. Their offense was stellar, their defense shut down a pretty hot Cowboys offense, and they put away a tough division opponent. On national TV again, I don’t see why they can’t repeat this performance. Chicago’s secondary has been anemic this year, even worse than the Cowboys, and even though their run defense is respectable, McCoy is going to have a field day once Mike Vick starts completing passes. Speaking of McCoy, has anyone been better than him? Even with Andy Reid’s ridiculous need to starve him of carries, McCoy has managed to not only score a touchdown in every game so far, but also lead the league in rushing yards per game straight up.
Speaking of great running backs, Matt Forte will be on the other side of the field for the Bears in this one. Forte has been a stud this year, but against an offense like Philly’s when it’s clicking a rush game is rendered useless. Yes, the Bears can try to control the clock with Forte and keep the ball away from Vick, but the fact that the Eagles can score in the blink of an eye will counteract that. Philly picks up huge chunks of yards at a time, and as mentioned earlier the Bears secondary will only enable that.
Vegas might be overreacting to last week’s game with this high point spread, but teams coming off of a bye have struggled this year and Chicago will likely suffer as well. The Eagles looked like they couldn’t be stopped by an elite secondary, nevermind the Bears, and with their best offensive threat being neutralized the Bears will be hard pressed to keep this one within a touchdown.
Pick:
Philadelphia: 31 Chicago: 20
PHI (-8) -110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, $0)
Over 47 (Correct)
Actual: Chicago 30 Philadelphia: 24
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Week 9 Power Rankings
We saw some shuffling atop this weeks NFL power rankings, as two top 10 teams were upset this weekend:
| 2011 Power Rankings: Week 8 | ||||
| RK | TEAM | REC | COMMENT | |
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1 | Packers | 7-0 | At this point, I don’t even need to see the Packers play (bye week) to confidently say they’re #1. |
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2 | Steelers | 6-2 | They’ve won 4 straight including an impressive upset of Tom Brady and the Patriots. Big Ben might be the second best quarterback in the NFL right now. |
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3 | 49ers | 6-1 | 49ers continue to roll after a monotonous win against the ailing Cleveland Browns. Their pass offense (ranked 31st) is still a question, but Alex Smith is managing games effectively. |
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4 | Lions | 6-2 | Lions end their losing skid quickly in blow out fashion, dismantling the Denver Tebows. Stafford’s ankle sure looks healthy. |
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5 | Bills | 5-2 | They looked fresh coming off their bye, and like a totally new defense. More than tripled their sack total and were stout against the run. Fitzpatrick continues to play solid with is new contract. |
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6 | Saints | 5-3 | They’ll have to bounce back quickly from an embarrassing implosion in St. Louis. New Orleans plays two division games before their bye only to come back to the Giants, Lions, and Titans. |
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7 | Patriots | 5-2 | The great Pittsburgh D finally got the best of Tom Brady, who threw for less than 200 yards. What’s more frightening is the consistently lousy play of their defense. Still, you can never count out a Tom Brady led team. |
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8 | Ravens | 5-2 | Great comeback this week, but an ugly win overall. Their defense is one of the best in the league, but they won’t beat many teams if Joe Flacco has to throw the ball 51 times. |
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9 | Bengals | 5-2 | A combination of a quality defense and surprisingly solid QB play has the Bengals a 1/2 game out back from first place in the powerful AFC north. They’ll only get better now that Cedric Benson will be returning next week. |
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10 | Texans | 5-3 | The Texans are closing in on that ever-elusive first playoff birth after a decisive win against Jacksonville. What’s been most impressive is how their offense has barely skipped a beat since losing Andre Johnson. Expect him back next week against Cleveland. |
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11 | Giants | 5-2 | A talented team now that Justin Tuck is back, but they always seem to play down to their opponents. The real question is, can they play up to their elite opponents? We’ll find out in the next few weeks as the Giants take on the Patriots, 49ers, Eagles, Saints, and Packers all in a row. |
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12 | Bears | 4-3 | They’ll be welcomed off their bye with a duo of talented teams, the surging Eagles and the Lions. They can’t afford to drop to 4-5 by week 10 in what is probably one of the best divisions in the NFL. |
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13 | Jets | 4-3 | Even though Rex Ryan’s rush defense isn’t what we’re used to, their secondary is playing out of its mind right now. Couple that with Shonn Greene heating up and suddenly a lot of pressure is off of Mark Sanchez. That’s a good thing, as like the Ravens, the Jets are not built to be carried by their mediocre quarterback. |
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14 | Eagles | 3-4 | Now THAT was the dream team we all expected to see! The Eagles were flying high against Rob Ryan’s defense. If their offense continues to play like that, they won’t have to worry about teams exposing their linebacker and safety play. |
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15 | Chiefs | 4-3 | The Chiefs have put together a four game win streak after their surprising 0-3 start to give them a share of first place in the AFC West. Of those 4 wins, only the Chargers, in Arrowhead, was a true challenge. They’ll have a few more gimmes in the next couple of weeks before facing a streak of elite teams. |
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16 | Cowboys | 3-4 | Tough loss in Philly this week, but they’re still very much in the hunt for the NFC east title. Tony Romo needs to be more consistent and their secondary has to drastically improve in a very pass happy division. |
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17 | Titans | 4-3 | Ever since Kenny Britt went on IR, the level of play in Tennessee has steadily been declining. Even this past week’s win against Indianapolis was less than inspiring. Chris Johnson’s no exception, he may have lost his starting role to Javon Ringer. |
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18 | Falcons | 4-3 | After Atlanta traded up for Julio Jones in April, everyone expected the Falcons offense to be one of the more explosive squads in the NFL. But halfway through the season, they’ve been surprisingly mediocre. While Jones is having a solid rookie campaign, he and the rest of the offense need to start notching more TDs to compete in their division. |
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19 | Buccaneers | 4-3 | Their bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. Quarterback Josh Freeman and his offense should’ve looked back at tape from last year during their week off |
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20 | Chargers | 4-3 | As incredible as Philip Rivers played Monday night, turnovers and stupid mistakes continue to plague Norv Turners team. They have a near Super Bowl caliber defense and plenty of offensive weapons but until they stop shooting themselves in the foot, how can you possibly buy into them? |
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21 | Raiders | 4-3 | Why is Kyle Boller even on the Raiders roster? As soon as Jason Campbell went down, they looked to immediately replace him anyway. If Carson Palmer can step in and throw the deep ball like he used to to complement the Raiders impressive run game this year, the Raiders will be a tough team to beat. |
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22 | Panthers | 2-6 | The Panthers have 99 problems, but a QB ain’t one. Although their record leaves much to be desired, the future for this team is bright. Cam Newton is a top 10 QB already in his first year in the league. |
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23 | Redskins | 3-4 | Oh how the “mighty” have fallen! What started off as a promising season for Redskins fans has turned sour fast. Shoddy quarterback play and injuries to both their #1 WR (Santana Moss) and RB (Tim Hightower) have left the Redskins below .500, likely for good. |
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24 | Browns | 3-4 | Cleveland’s inability to stop the run despite having one of the best secondaries in the league is ultimately what killed them again this week against the 49ers. Colt McCoy has played solid, but without stud running back Peyton Hillis (and backup Montario Hardesty), the Browns will likely stay in their familiar 4th position in the AFC North. |
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25 | Jaguars | 2-6 | Another 2-6 team with a starting rookie QB, Jacksonville isn’t fairing nearly as well as Carolina. Blaine Gabbert had another weak showing, completing less than 11 passes for under 100 yards for the second straight week while their surprise defense didn’t look nearly as dominant as last week against the Ravens. |
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26 | Vikings | 2-6 | Under Christian Ponder’s guidance, the Minnesota Vikings look like a new team. Ponder passed for a 102.7 QB rating, and is now 1-1 as a starter. His only loss, of course, was to the reigning Super Bowl champions by less than a touchdown. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Ponder can’t line up on the defensive side as well. |
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27 | Seahawks | 2-5 | Confusion at the quarterback position is only the beginning of problems for the Seahawks who were blown out at home by the Bengals this past week. On the bright side, Tarvaris Jackson in relief threw for 320 yards against a usually stout Bengals secondary. |
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28 | Cardinals | 1-6 | As if Kevin Kolb wasn’t having a tough enough first year in Arizona, Kolb suffered turf toe in his latest game against the Ravens which undoubtedly will add to his troubles. Speaking of injuries, Beanie Wells came back to have a great game, but poor play calling combined with a pourous secondary and front seven will continue to kill the red birds. |
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29 | Broncos | 2-5 | One week after making us all believers Tim Tebow reminded us all while we doubted him to begin with. While Tebow did hold on to the ball for far too long on way too many plays, he is certainly not the Broncos only fault. Turnovers along with weak o-line and defensive play are what is killing Denver. Not even rookie of the year favorite Von Miller was able to get going last game, one of Denvers few bright spots this season. |
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30 | Rams | 1-6 | Steven Jackson’s YPC this season speaks for itself; when he gets his carries, he produces and St. Louis wins. Unfortunately, the Rams surprise blowout against the Saints has been the only game Jackson has gotten over 20 carries. If Jackson goes, the Rams go, whether it be game manager AJ Feeley or young stud Sam Bradford behind center. The Rams have talent on defense if they can stay healthy, but it may be too little too late this season. |
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31 | Dolphins | 0-7 | Phew, that was a close one..The Dolphins almost separated themselves from the Suck For Luck Sweepstakes in the Meadowlands this week. Fortunately, the very position most ‘Phins fans hope to replace next year with Luck is what kept them from that elusive victory. Matt Moore struggled to put together anything despite inspiring play from their defense and Reggie Bush in the first half. |
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32 | Colts | 0-8 | While Curtis Painter will take the brunt of blame for his two picks and 50% completion percentage, this team has obvious holes on their entire roster. What’s perhaps most obvious is that the Colts need defensive help, something that Peyton Manning (or Andrew Luck for that matter) won’t provide. |
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