Atlanta Falcons (4-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-8)
ATL (-7), O/U: 44.5
By the Numbers:
Atlanta Indianapolis
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 2-6
SU: 4-3 SU: 0-8
PPG: 22.6 PPG: 15.1
PA: 23.3 PA: 31.5
O/U: 3-4 O/U: 6-2
Trends:
Atlanta is 17-7 ATS in dome games in the last 3 seasons (++ATL)
Atlanta is 10-4 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (++ATL)
Atlanta is 1-3 ATS in road games this season (-ATL)
Atlanta is 1-2 ATS as a favorite (only win is vs. Carolina, both losses are on the road) (-ATL)
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS when playing with 6 days of rest or less (-IND)
Indianapolis is 1-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 (-IND)
Indianapolis is allowing 402.9 yards/game (–IND)
Indianapolis is averaging 8.7 points in the first half (–IND)
Other useful information:
Atlanta has won 2 straight games ATS (+ATL)
Atlanta’s last three games have gone UNDER the total
Indianapolis’ games from week 2-7 have gone OVER the total
Indianapolis has lost 4 straight games ATS (-IND)
Injuries:
ATL: Julio Jones “?” (Hamstring), Matt Ryan “Probable” (Ankle), Ovie Mughelli “Doubtful” (Knee)
IND: Blair White “?” (Knee)
Recap:
The Falcons started off slow this year but seem to be putting it together as they have won 3 out of their last 4. They have had a tough road schedule so far, taking on the Bears, Bucs and Lions, and this game gives the Falcons a chance to get themselves back into the division race. With there being a guaranteed loser in the Saints-Bucs matchup, Atlanta is in prime position to pick up a game on one of these teams. Indianapolis allows the second most yards per game in the NFL and they’re facing a Falcons offense that features Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, and Matt Ryan. Gonzalez is old, but he still produces surprisingly well for a 35 year old vet, and Jones looks to be well on his way to returning this week.
On the other side of the ball, Curtis Painter has been a mess in his past 3 games and is going up against a Falcons secondary which has the 5th highest interception total in the league. The Colts will be forced to throw the ball once they go down against the potent Falcons offense, and you can bet the Dirty Bird’s secondary will be foaming at the mouth to add to their interception total. With the opportunity to pick up an important game in the division, the Falcons won’t sleep on Indy in this one, and they’ll have no problem putting up points to cover this big spread.
Pick:
Atlanta: 27 Indianapolis: 10
ATL (-7) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Under 44.5 (Correct)
Actual: Atlanta: 31 Indianapolis: 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) @ New Orleans Saints (5-3)
NO (-8), O/U 50
By the Numbers:
Tampa Bay New Orleans
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 4-4
SU: 4-3 SU: 5-3
PPG: 18.7 PPG: 32.5
PA: 24.1 PA: 23.6
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 5-3
Trends:
Tampa Bay is 11-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (++TB)
Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS this season against division opponents (+TB)
Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in dome games in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (++TB)
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (++TB)
Tampa Bay is 13-4 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this year) (++TB)
New Orleans is 4-10 ATS in the last 3 seasons against division opponents (–NO)
New Orleans is 3-0 ATS as home favorites of 7.5-10 in the last 3 seasons (+NO)
New Orleans is 3-0 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (+NO)
Other useful information:
Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS this season when rushing for 100+ yards (+TB)
Tampa Bay is 2-2 straight up this season when they are underdogs
Tampa Bay has had 2 straight games UNDER the total
New Orleans allows 124 rushing yards per game (–NO)
New Orleans is 5-2 straight up this season when they are favorites (+NO)
New Orleans has had 2 straight games OVER the total
Injuries:
TB: LeGarrette Blount “?” (Leg)
NO: Mark Ingram “?” (Heel)
Recap:
Tampa Bay strives in divisional matchups. With LeGarrette Blount expected to return after the extra week off, I don’t see the Saints being able to slow him down. Usually with a high scoring offense you would expect a team’s defense to surrender a lot of pass yards as a result of opponents playing catch up. This is not the case with the Saints D, which speaks measures as to how much they struggle against the run. Look for Tampa to establish Blount early and often, especially because Blount has publicly stated he expects to play a big role on Sunday.
I also don’t know how the Saints are going to respond after their inexplicable loss to St. Louis last week. In their earlier matchup, the Bucs secondary had fun with Drew Brees, picking him off three times. Being the veteran that he is, I expect him to change his game plan from last time he struggled and do enough for his team to get the win, but with limited time of possession from Tampa’s run game, it won’t be enough to cover this large spread.
Pick:
New Orleans: 24 Tampa Bay: 20
TB (+8) -110 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$220)
Under 50 (Correct)
Actual: New Orleans: 27 Tampa Bay: 16
Cleveland Browns (3-4) @ Houston Texans (5-3)
HOU (-11), O/U: 41
By the Numbers:
Cleveland Houston
ATS: 1-5-1 ATS: 4-3-1
SU: 3-4 SU: 5-3
PPG: 15.3 PPG: 25.8
PA: 20.0 PA: 18.1
O/U: 3-4 O/U: 2-6
Trends:
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS on grass fields this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 8-10 ATS in the last 3 seasons when playing a team with a winning record (0-3 this season) (-CLE)
Cleveland is 13-16 ATS as an underdog in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this year) (-CLE)
Houston is 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season (+HOU)
Houston is 0-1 ATS after two consecutive wins this season (-HOU)
Other useful information:
Cleveland has had 3 straight games UNDER the total
Cleveland is 1-2 SU on the road this season (Only win: week 2 vs. Indianapolis) (-CLE)
Cleveland has only score over 17 points once this season (–CLE)
Cleveland allows 127 rushing yards per game (–CLE)
Houston has had 4 out of their last 5 games UNDER the totals
Houston is 5-1 ATS this season when rushing for 100+ yards (+HOU)
Injuries:
CLE: Peyton Hillis “?” (Hamstring), Montario Hardesty “?” (Calf)
HOU: Andre Johnson “?” (Hamstring)
Recap:
The Texans really seem like they are turning into the team we expected to see the last few years. Every year they get everyone’s hopes up and then collapse and disappoint everyone. I might be falling into their trap again, but this year appears to be different. They are beating the teams that they are supposed to beat and holding their own against the top tier ones. With their new and improved defense to go along with their high powered offense, I don’t see anyway that Cleveland can keep this one close. Cleveland struggles to find the endzone and Houston has scored the 5th most points in the league this year.
The only way the Browns stay in this game is if they stop the run. Unfortunately for them, they’ll be going up against an elite running back for a second consecutive week. Arian Foster will have no problem finding holes and likely the end zone a couple of times. While the Browns secondary has been impressive this year, once Houston goes up they won’t look back. Even when running down the clock, the Texans will be able to score points which makes me confident they’ll cover this spread.
Pick:
Houston: 31 Cleveland: 7
HOU (-11) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Under 41 (Incorrect)
Actual: Houston: 30 Cleveland: 12
New York Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo Bills (5-2)
BUF (-1.5), O/U 44
By the Numbers:
New York Buffalo
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 4-2-1
SU: 4-3 SU: 5-2
PPG: 24.6 PPG: 30.1
PA: 21.7 PA: 21.0
O/U: 5-2 O/U: 6-1
Trends:
New York is 12-5 ATS in the last 3 seasons when the line is between +3 and -3 (1-1 this season) (++NY)
New York’s O/U record is 24-11 in the last 3 seasons against conference opponents
Buffalo’s O/U record is 4-0 this season against conference opponents
Other useful information:
New York has won 2 straight ATS (+NY)
New York is 1-2 ATS as an underdog (-NY)
New York’s 4 out of their last 5 game have gone OVER the total
Buffalo is 1-2 ATS this season as a favorite (2-1 SU in those games) (-BUF)
Injuries:
No significant injuries
Recap:
This matchup appears that it is going to be a classic AFC East rivalry game. There are no significant trends or numbers that stand out to lean me one way or the other. The only thing that appears to be consistent with these two teams is they put up a decent amount of points. So expect pretty high scoring in this one, not a game I would recommend betting, though. Both teams are heating up and this is a huge game with implications in the standings.
Pick:
Buffalo: 28 New York: 24
BUF (-1.5) -110 0 Units (Incorrect, +$0)
Over 44 (Incorrect)
Actual: New York: 27 Buffalo: 11
San Francisco 49ers (6-1) @ Washington Redskins (3-4)
SF (-3), O/U 37.5
By the Numbers:
San Francisco Washington
ATS: 6-0-1 ATS: 3-4
SU: 6-1 SU: 3-4
PPG: 26.7 PPG: 16.6
PA: 15.3 PA: 19.9
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 2-5
Trends:
San Francisco is 4-0 ATS this season when playing with 6 days of rest of less (+SF)
San Francisco is 4-0 ATS on a grass field this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 2-0 ATS when traveling to the east coast for a 1:00 ET game (+SF)
San Francisco is 2-0 ATS in road games this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 13-7 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season) (++SF)
Washington is 0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 this season (-WAS)
Other useful information:
San Francisco is 3-0 SU as a favorite this season (+SF)
San Francisco’s last 2 games have gone UNDER the total
Washington has lost 3 straight games ATS (-WAS)
Washington’s 5 out of their last 6 games have gone UNDER the total
Washington is 1-1 ATS as home underdogs this season
Injuries:
SF: No significant injuries
WASH: Phillip Buchanon “?” (Neck), Fred Davis “?” (Foot), Tashard Choice “Doubtful” (Hamstring)
Recap:
A situation like Sunday’s 49ers Redskins game would usually have trap game written all over it. Historically, west coast teams traveling to the east coast for an early game have struggled. This year, however, has been the complete opposite. The 49ers came to Cincinnati and Philadelphia for early games and won both straight up. Alex Smith isn’t putting up eye-popping numbers, but between Frank Gore going off and their stout defense, John Beck and the Redskins are in for a long afternoon. The 49ers don’t score much, but they’ll put up enough to cover the spread against the injury-depleted ‘Skins, as Walter mentions, “No. 1 receiver? Gone. No. 1 running back? Gone. Left tackle? Gone. Left guard? Gone. No. 2 Tight end? Gone. Starting quarterback from Week 1? Benched. Oh, and added this week: No. 1 tight end? Ankle sprain; could be out. ” Of course, Walter, of course, inexplicably picked the Redskins. Check out Walters Falters for more of Walter’s week 9 shenanigans!
Pick:
49ers: 21 Redskins: 3
SF (-3) -125 – 3 Units (Correct, +$300)
Under 37.5 (Correct)
Actual: San Francisco: 19 Washington: 11
Seattle Seahawks (2-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
DAL (-11.5), O/U 44
By the Numbers:
Seattle Dallas
ATS: 3-3-1 ATS: 3-3-1
SU: 2-5 SU: 3-4
PPG: 15.6 PPG: 22.3
PA: 23.1 PA: 23.1
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 3-4
Trends:
Seattle is 0-4 ATS in the last 3 seasons as an underdog of 10+ points (0-1 this season) (-SEA)
Seattle is 4-16 ATS in the last 3 seasons in road games (1-2 this season) (–SEA)
Dallas is 2-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 10+ points (1-0 this season) (+DAL)
Dallas is 0-1 ATS this season in their next game after a divisional matchup (-DAL)
Other useful information:
Seattle’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Seattle is 2-0 SU when rushing for 100+ yards (2-0 ATS)
Seattle is 0-5 SU when rushing for under 100+ yards (1-3-1 ATS)
Dallas has had 3 straight games go UNDER the total
Dallas is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite this season (-DAL)
Dallas allows 94 rushing yards per game
Injuries:
SEA: Chris Clemons “?” (Knee)
DAL: Michael Jenkins “?” (Hamstring), Sean Lee “Out” (Wrist)
Recap:
The Seattle Seahawks are a completely different team away from home. They really feed off that home crowd and use the 12th man to their advantage. Playing in Jerry Land is never easy to do, and with the Cowboys coming off a blowout loss on national TV, Jerry Jones is going to have his team out for blood. Here, let me give you a little example of what I expect this game to be: 
Seattle is the poor little innocent girl who thinks she has a chance against the big boys…Unfortunately, we all see what an angry Cowboys squad has to say about that.
The combination of the Cowboys coming off an embarrassing loss on national television, Seattle’s horrible QB situation, and the Seahawks terrible ATS record as a road team the past three years really tempts me to put units on this game, but Tarvaris Jackson actually looked pretty good in relief and the Seahawks did beat the Giants straight up in New York, so I’ll resist.
Pick:
Dallas: 31 Seattle: 17
DAL (-11.5) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 44 (Incorrect)
Actual: Dallas: 23 Seattle: 13
Miami Dolphins (0-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
KC (-4), O/U: 40
By the Numbers:
Miami Kansas City
ATS: 2-5 ATS: 5-2
SU: 0-7 SU: 4-3
PPG: 15.3 PPG: 18.3
PA: 23.7 PA: 24.3
O/U: 1-6 O/U: 3-4
Trends:
Miami is 14-16 ATS against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons (1-5 this season) (MIA)
Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5-7 this season (-MIA)
Miami is 1-3 ATS against AFC West opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-MIA)
Miami’s O/U record is 1-5 against conference opponents this season
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS against AFC East opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-KC)
Kansas City is 0-1 ATS as a favorite this season (-KC)
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS against conference opponents this season (+KC)
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS on grass fields this season (+KC)
Other useful information:
Miami has had 6 straight games go UNDER the total
Miami is 2-2 ATS on the road
Miami has lost 3 out of their last 4 ATS (-MIA)
Kansas City has had 4 out of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
Kansas City has won 5 straight games ATS (++KC)
Injuries:
MIA: Mike Pouncey “?” (Head), Daniel Thomas “?” (Hamstring), Vontae Davis “?” (Hamstring)
KC: Jon McGraw “?” (Shoulder)
Recap:
Miami is terrible no matter where they play, but the Arrowhead crowd won’t make things any easier for them. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are on fire, winning 4 straight games to jump into first place in the AFC West. Not only has KC been winning straight up, they also have been killing it against the spread lately.
If Miami was smart, they’d throw away this season and use their draft pick to get Stanford star Andrew Luck. Matt Moore cannot lead a team in which their top receiver hasn’t recorded a touchdown this season (Brandon Marshall). Moore leads a passing offense that is 25th ranked, while Brandon Flowers and the Chiefs secondary looked impenetrable at times against a much more talented 6th ranked San Diego offense. Don’t expect Miami to give it their all in this one, and even if they do, Kansas City should continue to ride their hot streak.
Pick:
Kansas City: 21 Miami: 7
KC (-4) -110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, -$110)
Under 40 (Correct)
Actual: Miami: 31 Kansas City: 3
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) @ Tennessee Titans (4-3)
TEN (-3), O/U 42
By the Numbers:
Cincinnati Tennessee
ATS: 6-1 ATS: 3-4
SU: 5-2 SU: 4-3
PPG: 24.4 PPG: 19.9
PA: 17.6 PA: 20.7
O/U: 6-1 O/U: 4-3
Trends:
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS against conference opponents this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati’s O/U record is 5-0 against conference opponents this season
Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS on grass fields this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 16-8 ATS as an underdog in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season) (++CIN)
Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in road games this season (++CIN)
Cincinnati averages 28.2 PPG on the road this season (++CIN)
Tennessee is 0-1 as a home favorite of 3 points or less this season (-TENN)
Tennessee is 1-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+TENN)
Other useful information:
Cincinnati has won 4 straight games ATS (+CIN)
Cincinnati has had 4 straight games go OVER the total
Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS when allowing less than 100 rushing yards this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati has score 22+ points in all but one game this season (13-8 loss to San Francisco) (++CIN)
Tennessee’s 3 of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Tennessee has only rushed for 100+ yards once this season (112 yards in 31-13 win @ Cleveland) (-TENN)
Tennessee has allowed 13, 14, 13 and 10 points in their wins (16, 38 and 41 points in their losses)
Injuries:
CIN: Jermaine Gresham “?” (Hamstring), Adam Jones “?” (Hamstring), Cedric Benson “Probable” (suspension)
TEN: No significant injuries
Recap:
This is my biggest play of the week. Tennessee has one win against a team over .500 (Baltimore) and has no right to be favored against a Cincinnati team that has been winning pretty convincingly. The road hasn’t been a problem for the Bengals as rookie QB Andy Dalton is exceeding expectations so far. Their defense in one of the tops in the league and Chris Johnson might not last this whole game rushing the ball. The Bengals #2 rush defense will have no problem shutting down the underachieving Chris Johnson (or Javon Ringer, if he replaces him). The Titans will be in 3rd and long situations the whole game and I wouldn’t trust this team with the game in the hands of Matt Hasselbeck.
On top of the Bengals favorable matchup for their defense, the trends are all clearly pointing in Cincinnati’s direction. Tennessee loses when they’re allow more than 14 points per game, and Cinci’s offense has been firing on all cylinders. The addition of Cedric Benson back into the starting lineup only helps their cause. A hot team with a quarterback who doesn’t waver on the road getting points against an unproven “winning” team? 4 units.
Pick:
Cincinnati: 31 Tennessee: 17
CIN (+3) -125 – 4 Units (Correct, +$400)
Over 42 (Correct)
Actual: Cincinnati: 24 Tennessee: 17
St. Louis Rams (1-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
ARI (-3), O/U 41.5
By the Numbers:
St. Louis Arizona
ATS: 1-6 ATS: 3-4
SU: 1-6 SU: 1-6
PPG: 12.4 PPG: 20.4
PA: 27.4 PA: 26.1
O/U: 3-3-1 O/U: 4-3
Trends:
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS against conference opponents this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 18-21 ATS in the last 3 seasons (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS on turf fields this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 5-2 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (+STL)
Arizona is 1-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 this season (+ARI)
Arizona is 10-16 ATS in dome games in the last 3 seasons (1-3 this season) (-ARI)
Arizona is 4-9 ATS against division opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-ARI)
Other useful information:
St. Louis’ 3 out of their last 4 games have gone UNDER the total
St. Louis has put up 16 points or less in 6 out of their 7 games (-STL)
Arizona’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Arizona has lost 4 out of their last 5 ATS (-ARI)
Arizona is 1-0 ATS as a home favorite this season (1-1 as a favorite anywhere) (+ARI)
Injuries:
STL: Sam Bradford “?” (Ankle), Danario Alexander “?” (Hamstring)
ARI: Kevin Kolb “Doubtful” (Foot), Beanie Wells “Probable” (Knee)
Recap:
We might be seeing a matchup of backup quarterbacks in this already unexciting NFC West showdown. A.J. Feeley has actually been fairing decent as Bradford’s backup, while John Skelton might be seeing his first action of the season as Kevin Kolb nurses turf toe. There’s not much to base this one on. The trends say that both teams just suck against the spread, can we just not have a winner?
Feeley looked good last week and has had an opportunity to get comfortable with the offense. In fact, Bradford hasn’t even been ruled out yet, but the point spread makes em think that Vegas is positive he won’t be playing. Normally I’d take the home team in a game like this but I don’t know how Skelton will be in this one. With the way Steven Jackson was running the ball last week coupled with the fact that the Rams are high off a win while the Cardinals gave it their all just to blow a late lead to the Ravens, I’ll take the points.
Pick:
St. Louis: 17 Arizona: 10
STL (+3) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 41 (Correct)
Actual: Arizona: 19 St. Louis: 13
New York Giants (5-2) @ New England Patriots (5-2)
NE (-8.5), O/U 51
By the Numbers:
New York New England
ATS: 3-3-1 ATS: 4-3
SU: 5-2 SU: 5-2
PPG: 24.9 PPG: 28.9
PA: 23.4 PA: 22.9
O/U: 5-2 O/U: 4-3
Trends
New York is 1-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 this season (+NY)
New York is 1-7 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (–NY)
New York is 4-12 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (–NY)
New York is 2-1 ATS in road games this season (+NY)
New York averages 24.7 PPG in road games this season (++NY)
New England is 13-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 in the last 3 seasons (4-2 this season) (+NE)
New England is 11-9 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+NE)
New England averages 28.3 PPG in home games this season (++NE)
Other useful information:
New York’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
New England’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone UNDER the total
New England has lost 2 straight games ATS (-NE)
New England is 1-0 ATS following a straight up loss this season (+NE)
New England scored 30+ points in their first 5 games this season (20 and 17 in next 2)
Injuries:
NYG: Hakeem Nicks “?” (Hamstring), Ahmad Bradshaw OUT
NE: Shaun Ellis “?” (Ribs), Julian Edelman “?” (Ankle)
Recap:
In recent years, the Giants have started off impressive only to flame out as the year went on. This matchup against the Patriots marks the beginning of possibly the toughest second half schedule in the history of the NFL. The Giants are also known for playing up or down to the level of their competition and the Patriots are towards the top in competition. I don’t expect the Giants to come out flat, but I just expect Tom Brady to be better. After a loss, Brady usually puts up crazy numbers the following week. Following the Patriots last 3 losses with Brady under center, the Pro Bowl QB is a combined 67/100 for 828 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 picks.
While the Giants have been able to put up points this year, and will have no trouble doing so against a terrible Patriots secondary, they may be a bit hobbled coming into this game. The Giants 4th ranked passing offense will likely be missing its best reciever, Hakeem Nicks. Nicks missed practice Wednesday which is never a good sign, especially for the WR position. Yes, Victor Cruz will step in and the Giants pass game will be more than serviceable without Nicks, but I think the loss of Nicks will slow them down enough to not backdoor this spread. The Patriots have an underrated rush defense (9th in the league) and the Giants run game this season has been slow to develop so don’t expect much contribution from them. Besides, this game will be a shootout, so forcing a run game is going to hurt the Giants more than help.
EDIT: Ahmad Bradshaw is out “indefinitely” so this just makes us all the more confident. I’d grab 8.5 before it shoots up from this news.
Pick:
Patriots: 38 Giants: 24
NE (-8.5) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 51 (Incorrect)
Actual: New York: 24 New England: 20
Denver Broncos (2-5) @ Oakland Raiders (4-3)
OAK (-7.5), O/U 42.5
By the Numbers:
Denver Oakland
ATS: 2-5 ATS: 5-2
SU: 2-5 SU: 4-3
PPG: 19.0 PPG: 22.9
PA: 28.6 PA: 25.4
O/U: 4-2-1 O/U: 2-4-1
Trends:
Denver is 0-2 ATS against division opponents this season (-DEN)
Denver is 0-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season (-DEN)
Oakland is 11-3 ATS against division opponents in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (+OAK)
Other useful information:
Denver’s 3 out of their last 4 games have gone OVER the total
Denver is 2-1 ATS on the road this season (+DEN)
Denver is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season (-DEN)
Oakland has had 4 straight games go UNDER the total
Oakland is 1-1 as a favorite this season
Oakland is 4-0 ATS when committing 1 or less turnover (1-2 when committing 2+ turnovers) (+OAK)
Injuries:
DEN: Quinton Carter “?” (Concussion)
OAK: Darren McFadden OUT (Foot), Kevin Boss “?” (Concussion)
Recap:
With an extra week to study the playbook and practice, Carson Palmer will not only have a better understanding of the Raiders gameplan, he’ll be more adjusted to the speed of the game. If he’s comfortable with the offense, he should be able to torch a Broncos defense that allows 250 yards per game through the air. McFadden should be a go in this one and could get Palmer into manageable third down situations to move the chain. Even if McFadden doesn’t play, Michael Bush is one of the better backup running backs in the game. Denver has only a mediocre rush defense, and if Palmer is hitting on deep routes, this’ll make it even easier for McBush to pick up big chunks of yards. As for Palmer hitting those passes, I doubt this will be a problem as the Broncos allow the 2nd highest completion percentage to opponents, a staggering 68%. That’s really freakin’ bad.
On the other side, Tim Tebow will continue to struggle simply because he is not ready to be successful as an NFL quarterback. Tebow’s accuracy has been a huge issue, and Oakland boasts the 3rd best pass defense in terms of opponent completion percentage at 53%. That’s really freakin’ good.
I expect the Raiders to bounce back from the embarrassing debacle that happened in Kansas City two weeks ago and get back on the winning side. There are hardly any offensive weapons on Denver now that they shipped Brandon Lloyd off to St. Louis and their next threat, Willis McGahee, is just coming off surgery. The uncertainty of Palmer being acquainted enough with the offense is what is stopping me from putting units on this bet.
Pick:
Oakland: 31 Denver: 10
OAK (-7.5) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 42.5 (Incorrect)
Actual: Denver: 38 Oakland: 24
Green Bay Packers (7-0) @ San Diego Chargers (4-3)
GB (-5.5), O/U 51
By the Numbers:
Green Bay San Diego
ATS: 5-2 ATS: 2-5
SU: 7-0 SU: 4-3
PPG: 32.9 PPG: 23.0
PA: 20-1 PA: 22.7
O/U: 4-3 O/U: 3-4
Trends:
Green Bay is 29-14 ATS in the last 3 seasons (++GB)
Green Bay is 14-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5-7 in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (++GB)
Green Bay is 21-9 ATS on grass fields in the last 3 season (4-1 this season) (++GB)
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS after two straight wins this season (+GB)
San Diego is 0-1 ATS as an underdog this season (-SD)
San Diego is 7-1 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (++SD)
San Diego is 9-4 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons. (+SD)
Other useful Information:
Green Bay’s 2 out of their last 3 games have gone UNDER the total
Green Bay has won 4 out of their last 5 ATS (+GB)
Green Bay allows 103 rushing yards per game this season
San Diego’s 2 out of their last 3 games have gone OVER the total
San Diego has lost 2 straight games ATS (-SD)
San Diego is 0-3 ATS when rushing for less than 100 yards
Injuries:
GB: Sam Shields “Probable” (Concussion)
SD: Ryan Mathews “?” (Groin), Mike Tolbert “Probable” (Foot), Shaun Phillips “?” (Foot)
Recap:
Betting against Aaron Rodgers would just be silly right now. He is in his own league when it comes to quarterbacks and the only way that Green Bay doesn’t cover this game is if they beat themselves. With that being said, the Chargers have enough fire power to keep pace with the Packers, but I believe the short week will hurt them in the end. Green Bay is coming off their bye and will be well rested and prepared. San Diego, however is coming off an emotional overtime loss where they really gave everything they had only to lose in heartbreaking fashion.
Philip Rivers is putting up good numbers but not the numbers we’ve come to expect of him this season and their defense while on paper has been great, hasn’t translated all that well on the field. They’ll be slow and sluggish and I can inundate you with statistics about how good Rodgers and the Packers offense is, but I think their track record speaks for itself. Matt Cassell moved the ball pretty well on San Diego’s secondary, so Rodgers and the Pack should be able to cruise in this one as long as their defense keeps the Chargers offense in check. That may seem like a tall task considering the Packers allow 289 passing yards per game, but that statistic is skewed by the fact that teams are constantly throwing the ball against the Packers because they’re playing catch up. Green Bay’s pass defense is actually 14th best in terms of opponents completion percentage and have the second most interceptions in the league.
Pick:
Green Bay: 35 San Diego: 24
GB (-5.5) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Over 51 (Correct)
Actual: Green Bay 45 San Diego: 38
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
PIT (-3), O/U 41.5
By the Numbers:
Baltimore Pittsburgh
ATS: 4-3 ATS: 4-4
SU: 5-2 SU: 6-2
PPG: 26.4 PPG: 22.0
PA: 15.7 PA: 17.4
O/U: 5-2 O/U: 4-4
Trends:
Baltimore is 9-7 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+BAL)
Baltimore is 9-11 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (-BAL)
Baltimore is 1-0 ATS against division opponents this season (Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh) (+BAL)
Pittsburgh is 1-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less this season (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in home games this season (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 1-0 ATS when revenging a loss this season (+PIT)
Other useful information:
Baltimore allows 15 PPG on the road this season (+BAL)
Baltimore has lost 2 straight games ATS (Won previous 3) (-BAL)
Baltimore forced 7 turnovers in 35-7 win vs. Pittsburgh in week 1
Pittsburgh has won 2 straight games ATS (+PIT)
Pittsburgh has allowed less than 20 points in every game since week 1 (++PIT)
Injuries:
BAL: Lee Evans “?” (Ankle)
PIT: Hines Ward “?” (Ankle), James Farrior “?” (Calf), LaMarr Woodley “?” (Hamstring)
Recap:
Steelers Ravens games are often an anomaly in today’s NFL. Somehow every game is always exciting, yet low scoring, a breath of fresh air in a league that is obsessed with offense. This Sunday night matchup won’t disappoint, as long as you love old school football. These two teams rank 1 and 2 in terms of total defense but the Steelers are 9th in offense while the Ravens are 14th. Historically these games are separated by 3 points, but the Steelers can cover this 3 point spread because their offense is starting to pick up. Ben Roethlisberger has been hot the past few weeks and has lead the Steelers to the #8 passing offense in the league.
On the other side, Joe Flacco has been struggling and going up against this Steeler defense that just shut down Tom Brady won’t help him at all. The Steelers secondary has to be on a high after a huge win again Brady while Flacco has left much to be desired since the Ravens week 3 blowout of St. Louis. In his past 4 games, Flacco is an unimpressive 82/153 for 941 yards 1 touchdown and 4 picks.
That all said, I expect this to be a classic slugfest, with Big Ben and his secondary doing just enough to cover the points. Both of these defenses are just too good to allow this game to get out of hand either way.
Pick:
Pittsburgh: 14 Baltimore: 10
PIT (-3) -120 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 41.5 (Incorrect)
Actual: Baltimore: 23 Pittsburgh: 20
Chicago Bears (4-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
PHI (-8), O/U 47
By the Numbers:
Chicago Philadelphia
ATS: 3-4 ATS: 3-4
SU: 4-3 SU: 3-4
PPG: 24.3 PPG: 25.6
PA: 21.4 PA: 21.7
O/U: 3-4 O/U: 3-3-1
Trends:
Chicago is 2-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (–CHI)
Chicago is 1-5 ATS as a road dog of 3.5-7 in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-CHI)
Chicago is 0-1 ATS on Monday night games this season (-CHI)
Philadelphia is 2-0 ATS on Monday night games in the last 3 seasons (+PHI)
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS against NFC North opponents in the last 3 seasons (-PHI)
Other useful information:
Chicago has won 2 straight games ATS (both as favorites, lost 4 straight ATS previous) (+CHI)
Chicago is 0-1 ATS as a road underdog after 2 straight home games (-CHI)
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games ATS (+PHI)
Philadelphia has had 2 straight games go UNDER the total
Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS and SU as home favorite of 7+ this season (-PHI)
Injuries:
CHI: Earl Bennett “?” (Chest), Major Wright “Probable” (Hip)
PHI: No significant injuries
Recap:
Last Sunday night, we saw what the Philadelphia Eagles are capable of. Their offense was stellar, their defense shut down a pretty hot Cowboys offense, and they put away a tough division opponent. On national TV again, I don’t see why they can’t repeat this performance. Chicago’s secondary has been anemic this year, even worse than the Cowboys, and even though their run defense is respectable, McCoy is going to have a field day once Mike Vick starts completing passes. Speaking of McCoy, has anyone been better than him? Even with Andy Reid’s ridiculous need to starve him of carries, McCoy has managed to not only score a touchdown in every game so far, but also lead the league in rushing yards per game straight up.
Speaking of great running backs, Matt Forte will be on the other side of the field for the Bears in this one. Forte has been a stud this year, but against an offense like Philly’s when it’s clicking a rush game is rendered useless. Yes, the Bears can try to control the clock with Forte and keep the ball away from Vick, but the fact that the Eagles can score in the blink of an eye will counteract that. Philly picks up huge chunks of yards at a time, and as mentioned earlier the Bears secondary will only enable that.
Vegas might be overreacting to last week’s game with this high point spread, but teams coming off of a bye have struggled this year and Chicago will likely suffer as well. The Eagles looked like they couldn’t be stopped by an elite secondary, nevermind the Bears, and with their best offensive threat being neutralized the Bears will be hard pressed to keep this one within a touchdown.
Pick:
Philadelphia: 31 Chicago: 20
PHI (-8) -110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, $0)
Over 47 (Correct)
Actual: Chicago 30 Philadelphia: 24
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