Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-7)
PHI (-3), O/U 43.5
By the Numbers:
Philadelphia: Seattle:
ATS: 4-7 ATS: 6-4-1
SU: 4-7 SU: 4-7
PPG: 23.4 PPG: 16.8
PA: 22.8 PA: 21.1
O/U: 5-5-1 O/U: 6-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 420.1 (3) Tot: 294.1 (30)
Pass: 260.7 (10) Pass: 196.4 (25)
Rush: 159.4 (2) Rush: 97.7 (27)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 344.6 (15) Tot: 340.5 (14)
Pass: 234.4 (16) Pass: 239.6 (20)
Rush: 110.3 (15) Rush: 100.9 (11)
Trends:
Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less this season (-PHI)
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season (-PHI)
Philadelphia is 3-2 ATS in road games this season (+PHI)
Seattle is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season (+SEA)
Seattle is 5-2 ATS against conference opponents this season (+SEA)
Seattle is 10-6 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (3-1 this season) (+SEA)
Other useful information:
Philadelphia has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-PHI)
Philadelphia has rushed for 100+ yards in 10 of their 11 games this season (+PHI)
Philadelphia has scored 17 points or less in 3 straight game (-PHI)
Philadelphia has had 2 of their last 3 games go UNDER the total
Philadelphia has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in 2 of their last 3 games (+PHI)
Seattle has won 3 of their last 4 games ATS (+SEA)
Seattle has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 straight games (+SEA)
Seattle has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in 2 of their last 3 games (+SEA)
Seattle has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
Recap:
It has officially been announced that Michael Vick will miss another game. Vince Young took all the snaps with the first team and will start his 3rd straight game. He hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been terrible. Most of his 400 yards last week against New England came during garbage time and his accuracy needs tons of improvement. He started last week’s game with a bang, completing several nice passes and getting points on the board for his team. If he wants to win this game, he’s going to have to do that again as well as be more consistent throughout the game. He’s going up against the 20th ranked pass defense so he very well could be able to do this, especially since Seattle might be able to bottle up LeSean McCoy in the running game. Philly holds the #2 rank in the running game so they might be able to overcome this tough Seattle and move the ball on the ground. DeSean Jackson could be a big factor in this one, as long as he doesn’t commit any stupid personal foul penalties like he’s known to do.
Seattle isn’t very good offensively, but Marshawn Lynch has been a bright spot running the ball. He’s returned to his “beast mode” form the last few games and could be able to reach the century mark again here. He’s going to have to carry the load because Tavaris Jackson has been pretty sub-par this season. While the Eagles haven’t really been outstanding on defense, they have the ability to just turn it on and shut down the opposing offense. If the Eagles can do a good job of slowing down Lynch, they should have no problems with Jackson and the Seahawks’ offense.
I know that Philly has some things going against them here, like traveling on a short week, but there’s one thing that makes me lean towards them. Seattle just isn’t very good. They don’t always protect their home field advantage (lost last week to Washington) and they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the high-flying Eagles. The Eagles haven’t really been losing games due to lack of offense, it’s been their defense and I don’t see Seattle being able to put up points to keep up in a shootout. This won’t be a big play, but I like the Eagles.
Pick:
Philadelphia: 31 Seattle: 21
PHI (-3) -110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, -$110)
Over 43.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Seattle: 31 Philadelphia: 14
Tennessee Titans (6-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-6)
BUF (-1.5), O/U 43.5
By the Numbers:
Tennessee: Buffalo:
ATS: 5-5-1 ATS: 5-5-1
SU: 6-5 SU: 5-6
PPG: 20.5 PPG: 23.7
PA: 19.3 PA: 25.5
O/U: 4-6-1 O/U: 8-3
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 319.5 (20) Tot: 345.5 (14)
Pass: 230.9 (15) Pass: 233.5 (19)
Rush: 88.6 (30) Rush: 122.0 (9)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 353.2 (17) Tot: 367.5 (22)
Pass: 229.1 (13) Pass: 243.6 (22)
Rush: 124.1 (22) Rush: 123.8 (21)
Trends:
Tennessee is 9-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons (3-4 this season)
Tennessee is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season (+TEN)
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS against AFC East opponents in the last 3 seasons (-TEN)
Tennessee is 3-0 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (+TEN)
Buffalo is 3-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons (1-3 this season) (-BUF)
Buffalo is 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-BUF)
Buffalo is 4-10 ATS when coming off a divisional game in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-BUF)
Buffalo is 9-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (+BUF)
Other useful information:
Tennessee has had 4 of their last 5 games go UNDER the total (pushed other contest)
Tennessee has won 2 of their last 3 games ATS (pushed other contest) (+TEN)
Tennessee has rushed for 170+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games (2-0 ATS in those games) (+TEN)
Tennessee has had 1 or less turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games (+TEN)
Buffalo has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
Buffalo has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-BUF)
Buffalo has rushed for under 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games (-BUF)
Buffalo has had 2+ turnovers in 5 of their last 6 games (-BUF)
Recap:
All the trends in this game are clearly leaning towards Tennessee. If last game is any sign of the future, the Titans are happy to welcome back Chris Johnson. He exploded for 190 yards in their win against Tampa Bay and could have similar success against Buffalo’s 21st ranked rush defense. Matt Hasselbeck will have to be much better with the football but if he does protect it, he could be very productive through the air. The Titans’ defense has been rapidly improving, especially against the pass. Aside from last week against the Jets, the Bills offense has been very shaky, putting up no more than 11 points in 3 consecutive games. They clearly suffered from the loss of Fred Jackson which puts way too much pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans’ secondary could have a nice against him as long as they limit C.J. Spiller, which shouldn’t be much of an issue.
As I mentioned, the Bills have been very shaky on offense, but on defense as well. They struggled both against the pass and the run against New York and this spells trouble because Tennessee is a better offensive team than the Jets. While the Bills do force a decent amount of turnovers (2nd in interceptions) they do let up a ton of yards. On offense, it was very nice to see Stevie Johnson have a breakout game (I was also a big fan of the celebration, unlike the NFL). Even though Tennessee has a good pass defense, Johnson could have another good game. After all, he had all that success last week against Revis. Spiller could have a good game against this front line of Tennessee and he’ll need to if Buffalo wants to have success moving the ball.
I like the Titans in this matchup. As of late they are the better team and playing in an underdog role. If Chris Johnson continues to tear it up on the ground, the titans will win this matchup easily. If he returns to his old self, it’ll be a little more difficult. I say he has another big game and the Titans cruise.
Pick:
Tennessee: 28 Buffalo: 17
TEN (+1.5) – 110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Over 43.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Tennessee: 23 Buffalo: 17
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago Bears (7-4)
CHI (-8), O/U: 36.5
Kansas City: Chicago:
ATS: 6-5 ATS: 6-5
SU: 4-7 SU: 7-4
PPG: 13.9 PPG: 26.2
PA: 24.1 PA: 21.1
O/U: 3-8 O/U: 7-4
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 304.2 (27) Tot: 339.0 (16)
Pass: 182.8 (27) Pass: 217.2 (20)
Rush: 121.4 (11) Rush: 121.8 (10)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 359.0 (20) Tot: 369.1 (23)
Pass: 225.3 (12) Pass: 270.5 (30)
Rush: 133.7 (26) Rush: 98.6 (8)
Trends:
Kansas City is 0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (-KC)
Kansas City is 3-5 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (-KC)
Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (+KC)
Kansas City is 3-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+KC)
Chicago is 2-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 this season (+CHI)
Chicago is 10-5 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (3-1 this season) (+CHI)
Chicago is 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season (+CHI)
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in home games this season (+CHI)
Other useful information:
Kansas City has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-KC)
Kansas City has had 6 straight games go UNDER the total
Kansas City has rushed for 100+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games (+KC)
Kansas City has had 7 turnovers in their last 2 games (forced only 3) (-KC)
Kansas City has scored 10 points or less in 4 straight games (-KC)
Chicago has had 4 straight games go OVER the total
Chicago has rushed for 100+ yards in 7 of their last 8 games (+CHI)
Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 games ATS (+CHI)
Recap:
All trends basically go out the window for this matchup. We’ll see Caleb Hanie likely against a combination of Tyler Palko and newly acquired Kyle Orton. Given a week to learn the playbook, I’m sure that Palko will be on a short leash, as he should be. He is terrible. The running game has been doing their best to help him but he is still continuing to force bad passes and tosses up many unnecessary interceptions. The defense, on the other hand, has been fairly solid. Aside from the New England matchup, their secondary has been able to limit their opponent to some degree. By no means is this defense good as a whole unit, but they have been playing a little above expectations lately.
Caleb Hanie wasn’t bad last week, but he definitely wasn’t good. I think part of it had to do with the play calling. When you have a running back like Matt Forte and a quarterback who is making their first start, you definitely have to utilize the running game more. Yes, the running game was able to post 172 yards, but earlier in the game they needed to push the ball on the ground more consistently. Towards the end they couldn’t because they were behind, but if the Bears want to be good with Hanie under center, they need to move the chains on the ground and really control the time of possession. The defense has been pretty bad lately too. For a team that strives on its defense, they can’t be satisfied with being ranked 30th against the pass. Luckily for them, the chiefs don’t have a solid passer so they might be able to get by in this one. But if they want to get through a few rounds of the playoffs, Brian Urlacher is going to have to get this defense up and back to the old days of Chicago football.
There’s really no way to go with this one. While I think that 8 points is way too much to be laying with Hanie, there logically shouldn’t be a way for the Chiefs to move the ball, unless of course Orton enters the game. I feel like if Orton comes in, which I believe he will at some point, the Chiefs could keep this a game. If not, I don’t know what to make out of it.
Pick:
Chicago: 17 Kansas City: 10
KC (+8), -110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Under 36.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Kansas City: 10 Chicago: 3
Oakland Raiders (7-4) @ Miami Dolphins (3-8)
MIA (-3), O/U: 43
Oakland: Miami:
ATS: 8-3 ATS: 6-5
SU: 7-4 SU: 3-8
PPG: 23.6 PPG: 19.3
PA: 24.9 PA: 18.7
O/U: 5-5-1 O/U: 1-10
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 373.3 (12) Tot: 316.4 (21)
Pass: 224.1 (18) Pass: 206.2 (23)
Rush: 149.2 (4) Rush: 110.2 (16)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 274.4 (27) Tot: 345.5 (16)
Pass: 239.1 (19) Pass: 248.1 (24)
Rush: 135.3 (27) Rush: 97.5 (7)
Trends:
Oakland is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season (+OAK)
Oakland is 4-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season (+OAK)
Oakland is 5-0 ATS in road games this season (+OAK)
Oakland is 3-7 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-OAK)
Oakland is 2-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less this season (+OAK)
Miami is 2-0 ATS as a favorite this season (+MIA)
Miami is 13-7 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (4-1 this season) (+MIA)
Miami is 7-14 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-3 this season) (-MIA)
Other useful information:
Oakland has won 3 straight games ATS (+OAK)
Oakland has had 3 of their last 4 games gone OVER the total
Oakland has rushed for 100+ yards in 5 of their last 6 games (+OAK)
Oakland has only committed 2 turnovers in the last 2 games (forced 8) (+OAK)
Miami has rushed for less than 100 yards in 2 straight games (-MIA)
Miami has allowed 9 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games (+MIA)
Miami has won 5 straight games ATS (+MIA)
Miami has had 10 straight games go UNDER the total
Recap:
Well, hasn’t Michael Bush been lovely replacement for Darren McFadden? He has been playing out of his mind both rushing and receiving the ball. The good news is that run DMC lightly practiced earlier this week. I don’t expect him to play this weekend, but can you imagine what this running game will be like with both of them in the lineup? It’ll make life for Carson Palmer a lot easier, even though he’s been doing pretty fine so far in Oakland. He’s moving the chains with ease and should be able to have continued success against Miami’s secondary. Miami relies heavily on their rush defense so while the Raiders might find themselves in several third and long situations, Palmer could still be able to keep their offense on the field by passing the ball.
Miami has been on a roll lately, winning 3 of their last 4 after starting 0-7. While Matt Moore and Reggie Bush have been playing great, their defense has been outstanding. In their last 3 games they have surrendered 61, 41, and 85 yards on the ground and forced 2 turnovers in each contest. The Miami offense has been doing the opposite when it comes to turnovers. Moore and the running game have been protecting the ball great, committing just 3 turnovers in 3 games. That’s going to be important because if their offense is on the field, they obviously have a better chance of staying in this game, especially against the Raiders’ 27th ranked defense.
As I said before, Miami has been on a roll lately, but all good things have to come to an end. If Miami had beaten the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, this spread would have been even higher, giving us much better value. However, the way that Oakland is playing, they should not be underdogs to an overachieving Dolphins team. I really like the points in this game.
Pick:
Oakland: 24 Miami: 13
OAK (+3) – 110 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$220)
Under 43 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Miami: 34 Oakland: 14
Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
PIT (-6.5), O/U: 42
By the Numbers:
Cincinnati: Pittsburgh:
ATS: 7-3-1 ATS: 5-6
SU: 7-4 SU: 8-3
PPG: 23.5 PPG: 21.2
PA: 19.5 PA: 17.1
O/U: 9-1-1 O/U: 6-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 334.6 (18) Tot: 374.5 (10)
Pass: 226.2 (17) Pass: 264.9 (8)
Rush: 108.5 (20) Rush: 109.6 (18)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 307.7 (5) Tot: 277.5 (2)
Pass: 215.0 (11) Pass: 181.3 (3)
Rush: 92.7 (5) Rush: 96.3 (6)
Trends:
Cincinnati is 1-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in road games this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS against conference opponents this season (+CIN)
Pittsburgh is 1-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS against conference opponents this season (-PIT)
Other useful information:
Cincinnati has lost 2 of their last 3 games ATS (pushed other game) (-CIN)
Cincinnati has had 7 of their last 8 games go OVER the total (pushed other game)
Cincinnati has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 straight games (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 1-1-1 ATS in their last 3 games as an underdog
Pittsburgh has lost 2 of their last 3 games ATS (-PIT)
Pittsburgh has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
Pittsburgh has rushed for 100+ yards in 2 straight games (+PIT)
Pittsburgh has only allowed 100+ rushing yards once in their last 5 games (+PIT)
Pittsburgh defeated Cincinnati 24-17 in week 10 (+PIT)
Recap:
I love this matchup, however I am struggling to choose a side. Cincinnati has proven that they can play with the big boys, keeping the games close against Baltimore and Pittsburgh but not being able to pull out a victory in either one. I love what Andy Dalton is doing with this team and he is going to have a great career as long as A.J. Green sticks around. They have been great on the road this year and this will be another great test for them. Benson might struggle on the ground going up against the 6th ranked rush defense even though he was able to rush for 109 yards in their previous meeting. Dalton only was able to put up 170 yards through the air, and could struggle to have any type of success again. Pittsburgh has finally been starting to force turnovers, so this could be trouble for the Bengals.
Big Ben is an elite quarterback this season. He is doing a pretty good job at protecting the ball against solid defenses, including Baltimore and Cincinnati. In his last meeting with the Bengals, he piled up 223 yards through the air. The Bengals are ranked 5th against the run, so Mendenhall could have a rough day on the ground but the Bengals have been exposed through the air. Mike Wallace could burn their secondary for a couple of huge gains and could open this up for Roethlisberger to complete some short passes and move the chains with ease.
I’ve been riding the Bengals the last few weeks and it’s backfired. I don’t think I’m going to make the same mistake again here, but I am not very confident with the Steelers either. I think I’ll just enjoy watching this game with no units.
Pick:
Pittsburgh: 24 Cincinnati: 16
PIT (-6.5) – 110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Under 42 (Push)
Actual:
Pittsburgh: 35 Cincinnati: 7
New York Jets (6-5) @ Washington Redskins (4-7)
NYJ (-3), O/U 38.5
By the Numbers:
New York: Washington:
ATS: 4-7 ATS: 5-6
SU: 6-5 SU: 4-7
PPG: 23.3 PPG: 16.6
PA: 21.9 PA: 20.2
O/U: 7-4 O/U: 4-7
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 314.8 (24) Tot: 322.4 (19)
Pass: 214.5 (21) Pass: 236.0 (14)
Rush: 100.4 (24) Rush: 86.4 (31)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 318.7 (8) Tot: 330.6 (11)
Pass: 204.6 (7) Pass: 212.7 (10)
Rush: 114.1 (16) Rush: 117.9 (18)
Trends:
New York is 1-4 ATS in road games this season (-NYJ)
New York is 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season (-NYJ)
New York is 11-6 ATS after a divisional game in the last 3 seasons (2-2 this season) (+NYJ)
New York is 7-2 ATS after a win against a divisional opponent in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (+NYJ)
New York is 3-6 ATS against non-conference opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-NYJ)
Washington is 7-11 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-3 this season) (-WAS)
Washington is 0-2 ATS against AFC East opponents this season (-WAS)
Washington is 11-8 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-WAS)
Other useful information:
New York has lost 3 straight games ATS (-NYJ)
New York has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
New York has rushed for 100+ yards in 5 of their last 6 games (+NYJ)
New York has committed 2+ turnovers in 5 straight games (-NYJ)
New York has allowed 250 passing yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games (+NYJ)
Washington has won their last 2 games ATS (lost previous 5) (+WAS)
Washington has committed 2+ turnovers in 10 of their 11 games this season (-WAS)
Washington has had their last 2 games go OVER the total
Washington has rushed for less than 100 yards in 6 of their last 7 games (-WAS)
Recap:
Mark Sanchez actually looked like an NFL quarterback last week. He led his team on an impressive 4th quarter drive to pull out a must-win divisional game against Buffalo. Will he be able to duplicate that against a tough Washington secondary? While the Skins haven’t has much success this season, their defense has been doing everything that it can to keep them in games. One area where they do struggle is against the run, which is obviously good news for Shonn Greene. Sanchez should have no problem with handing the ball off to Greene for a ton of carries because he should be able to help move the chains on the ground. If the running game has success early, the field will be much more spread out for Sanchez in the passing game, and should help him limit the interceptions that he throws so much.
It’s very obvious that Washington is a much better team with Rex Grossman calling the shots. When Beck was playing, they were so out of sync and couldn’t move the ball at all on offense. Granted that their offense still hasn’t looked good, it has been much more efficient with Grossman. However, he is going to have to probably win this game on his own. Roy Helu will struggle to have success against the Jets line. I also expect Revis to have a huge game on defense because he was embarrassed by Stevie Johnson last week. He’ll lock down Santana Moss, which is basically Grossman’s only reliable target. The defense will be in shutdown mode, which will cause a long day for this Washington offense.
I know that the Jets haven’t traveled very well this year, but they are in a must-win situation for the remainder of the season. This is when the Jets are at their best. They won’t overlook a weak Redskins team that has nothing to play for. The Jets will be up for this game and walk out with an easy win.
Pick:
New York: 24 Washington: 10
NYJ (-3) – 105 – 3 Units (Correct, +$300)
Under 38.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
New York: 34 Washington: 19
Atlanta Falcons (7-4) @ Houston Texans (8-3)
ATL (-3), O/U 38.5
By the Numbers:
Atlanta: Houston:
ATS: 4-5-2 ATS: 7-3-1
SU: 7-4 SU: 8-3
PPG: 23.5 PPG: 26.6
PA: 20.6 PA: 16.3
O/U: 3-8 O/U: 3-8
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 365.9 (13) Tot: 379.7 (8)
Pass: 248.2 (11) Pass: 228.0 (16)
Rush: 117.7 (14) Rush: 151.7 (3)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 329.2 (9) Tot: 268.4 (1)
Pass: 245.7 (23) Pass: 175.8 (2)
Rush: 83.5 (2) Rush: 92.5 (4)
Trends:
Atlanta is 13-8 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (2-3 this season) (+ATL)
Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+ATL)
Atlanta is 18-9 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons (2-2 this season) (+ATL)
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (+ATL)
Houston is 3-0 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 this season (+HOU)
Houston is 3-1 ATS in home games this season (+HOU)
Houston is 2-6 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (-HOU)
Houston is 3-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season (+HOU)
Houston is 2-6 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (-HOU)
Other useful information:
Atlanta has lost 2 of their last 3 games ATS (-ATL)
Atlanta has had their last 7 games go UNDER the total
Atlanta has allowed less than 90 rushing yards in 7 of their 11 games this season (+ATL)
Atlanta has rushed for 100+ yards in 5 of their last 6 games (+ATL)
Atlanta has committed 1 or less turnovers in 5 out of their last 6 games (+ATL)
Houston has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games ATS (pushed other contest) (+HOU)
Houston has rushed for 130+ yards in 7 of their 11 games this season (+HOU)
Houston has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in 6 of their 11 games this season (+HOU)
Recap:
Remember last week when I said that you gotta feel bad for Houston? Well that sympathy feeling just got even worse. Matt Leinart finally gets his chance and breaks his collarbone and is done for the season. Now, the reigns of an 8-3 team get handed off to T.J. Yates. Well actually, I’m sure he’ll be doing most of the handing off. Even though it basically was already, this offense now belongs to Arian Foster and the running game. Yates wasn’t impressive at all in replacing Leinart last week, but to his defense he was going up against a solid secondary in Jacksonville. Foster will have to run wild in this one, which will be extremely difficult because Atlanta is outstanding against the run. The Houston defense, which is already #1 in the NFL, will have to be even better (if possible) to keep their team in games. A matchup against Atlanta will be a great test for this team to see if they can play deep into January with a 3rd string quarterback.
The Falcons are playing like a playoff team as of late. Matt Ryan has been excellent when it comes to protecting the ball and keeping his offense on the field. Him and Michael Turner are really dominating their position and a game against a top ranked defense should be interesting. Houston is obviously stellar against both the run and the pass but I believe that this defense will tire out in this one because their offense won’t be able to stay on the field long enough for them to rest. Expect big games from Turner on the ground and probably Tony Gonzalez in the passing game.
If Houston was at full strength, this would be a very exciting game to watch. Unfortunately, they are not and this results in a very favorable matchup for the Falcons. They need this game because the NFC race is tightening up, while the Texans have a 2 game lead in the division, currently. Matt Ryan and company play solid and steal one on the road.
Pick:
Atlanta: 20 Houston: 14
ATL (-3) +100 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$200)
Under 38.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Houston: 17 Atlanta: 10
Carolina Panthers (3-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
TB (-3), O/U 47.5
By the Numbers:
Carolina: Tampa Bay:
ATS: 6-5 ATS: 4-7
SU: 3-8 SU: 4-7
PPG: 22.9 PPG: 18.1
PA: 27.7 PA: 26.5
O/U: 6-4-1 O/U: 6-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 398.7 (5) Tot: 340.2 (15)
Pass: 263.5 (9) Pass: 238.5 (12)
Rush: 135.3 (6) Rush: 101.6 (23)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 370.1 (24) Tot: 394.6 (31)
Pass: 232.6 (15) Pass: 254.9 (28)
Rush: 137.5 (28) Rush: 139.7 (30)
Trends:
Carolina is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-CAR)
Carolina is 2-3 ATS in road games this season (-CAR)
Carolina is 5-2 ATS on a grass field this season (+CAR)
Tampa Bay is 3-11 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons (2-5 this season) (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 5-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 5-14 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-3 this season) (-TB)
Other useful information:
Carolina has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-CAR)
Carolina has rushed for 100+ yards in 9 straight games (+CAR)
Carolina has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 9 of their last 10 games (-CAR)
Carolina has had 2+ turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games (-CAR)
Carolina is playing their 3rd consecutive road game
Tampa Bay has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
Tampa Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS (-TB)
Tampa Bay has committed 2+ turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games (4+ in 3 of their last 5) (-TB)
Recap:
Carolina could have a field day on offense in this one. Tampa Bay can’t stop the run or the pass, which is what Cam Newton excels at. This offense has been pretty outstanding considering how terrible they were last season. Steve Smith is clearly the fastest player on the field and could easily burn the secondary for some deep bombs. Stewart and Williams will split carries as usual on the ground, with both of them having some solid success. The Panthers could struggle in slowing down Blount on the other side but they should be able to limit Freeman to some extent. Their secondary isn’t great, but it’s improving as of late. If the Panthers control the time of possession and keep their offense on the field, they could pull out a second straight victory.
The Bucs have been pretty bad all together lately. They’ve lost 5 straight and have only been real competitive in one of them. Their season is basically done, but I’m sure this offense still feels like they have something to prove. Josh Freeman had an up year last year but has taken a few steps backwards this season. If he wants to prove that he can make it in this league, he’s going to have to show that he can take down teams with sub-par defenses like Carolina’s. Blount should be good in this one to help Freeman, but he’s going to have to keep moving the chains to stay on the field and keep Carolina’s explosive offense on the sideline.
I like Carolina here, however I’m not crazy about it because the Panthers are on the road for a 3rd consecutive game. Playing on the road in the NFL is tough regardless, but 3 straight games is obviously tough to do. I’ll take the points with the Panthers, but I’ll stay away from this one.
Pick:
Carolina: 31 Tampa Bay: 20
CAR (+3) +110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Over 47.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Carolina: 38 Tampa Bay: 19
Indianapolis Colts (0-11) @ New England Patriots (8-3)
NE (-20), O/U 48.5
By the Numbers:
Indianapolis: New England:
ATS: 2-9 ATS: 7-4
SU: 0-11 SU: 8-3
PPG: 13.6 PPG: 30.1
PA: 29.7 PA: 20.3
O/U: 6-4-1 O/U: 6-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 280.0 (31) Tot: 429.5 (2)
Pass: 181.0 (28) Pass: 319.1 (2)
Rush: 99.0 (25) Rush: 110.4 (15)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 389.4 (29) Tot: 409.8 (32)
Pass: 238.7 (18) Pass: 307.5 (32)
Rush: 150.6 (31) Rush: 102.4 (12)
Trends:
Indianapolis is 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season (-IND)
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in road games this season (-IND)
Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS against conference opponents this season (-IND)
Indianapolis is 1-7 ATS in games played on turf this season (-IND)
New England is 1-0 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 this season (+NE)
New England is 1-3 after 2 consecutive wins this season (-NE)
New England is 10-4 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (+NE)
Other useful information:
Indianapolis has lost 7 straight games ATS (-IND)
Indianapolis has only rushed for 100+ yards in 4 of their 11 games this season (-IND)
Indianapolis has scored 20+ points in 2 games this season (-IND)
Indianapolis has committed 2+ turnovers in 6 straight games (-IND)
Indianapolis has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
Indianapolis is starting Dan Orlovsky, who has never won an NFL game in which he threw a pass (-IND)
New England has won 3 straight games ATS (+NE)
New England has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
New England has forced 7 turnovers in their last 3 games (committed only 1) (+NE)
Recap:
To be honest, I wasn’t really surprised with this spread when it came out. The Colts are terrible and the Patriots are playing outstanding. Dan Orlovsky is making his first start of the season in relief of Curtis Painter. If you don’t remember, Orlovsky was the quarterback for the majority of the games for the Lions during their 0-16 season. Even though the Pats rank dead last in the NFL in rush defense, he’s still going to struggle. The Colts cannot move the ball by any means and that trend will continue here. The Patriots are solid against the run, which means that Orlovsky will be on his own trying to move the chains, and you don’t need me to tell you that that’s trouble for Indy.
This will be a nice stat booster for Tom Brady, especially since him and Coach Hoodie never like to take their gas off the pedal. Brady will use his receivers to perfection as usual and also continue to include his tight ends in the passing game. The Colts, who obviously aren’t good at anything right now, won’t even be able to stop Green-Ellis and the rest of the running backs on the ground. The Patriots could very well break some offensive records in this one, and won’t surprise anybody.
It kills me to lay almost 3 touchdowns to an NFL team. But right now, the Colts aren’t an NFL caliber team. I refuse to lay units on this game because 20 points is ridiculous, but I am going to take New England.
Pick:
New England: 42 Indianapolis: 10
NE (-20) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 48.5 (Correct)
Actual:
New England: 31 Indianapolis: 24
Denver Broncos (6-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (2-9)
MIN (-1), O/U 37.5
By the Numbers:
Denver: Minnesota:
ATS: 6-5 ATS: 4-5-2
SU: 6-5 SU: 2-9
PPG: 20.1 PPG: 19.5
PA: 23.6 PA: 26.8
O/U: 5-5-1 O/U: 6-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 312.8 (25) Tot: 314.9 (23)
Pass: 153.1 (31) Pass: 179.0 (30)
Rush: 159.7 (1) Rush: 135.9 (5)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 355.3 (18) Tot: 357.8 (19)
Pass: 234.7 (17) Pass: 258.2 (29)
Rush: 120.5 (19) Rush: 99.6 (9)
Trends:
Denver is 5-1 ATS in road games this season (+DEN)
Denver is 3-1 ATS after a divisional game this season (+DEN)
Denver is 4-6 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-DEN)
Denver is 6-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (+DEN)
Minnesota is 4-7 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-MIN)
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+MIN)
Minnesota is 11-8 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-2 this season) (+MIN)
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season (-MIN)
Other useful information:
Denver has won 4 straight games ATS (+DEN)
Denver has had 3 straight games go UNDER the total
Denver has rushed for 115+ yards in 9 of their 11 games this season (+DEN)
Denver has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (-DEN)
Denver has only committed 1 turnover in their last 4 games (+DEN)
Denver is 5-1 ATS since Tim Tebow took over as starting quarterback (+DEN)
Minnesota has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games (+MIN)
Minnesota has lost 3 straight games ATS (-MIN)
Minnesota has committed 5 turnovers in their last 2 games (only forced 2) (-MIN)
Recap:
Can somebody please explain this to me? A 2-9 team that has lost 3 straight is a favorite against a 6-5 team that has won 4 straight. WHAT!? I understand that the Broncos are not dominating the games that they have won, but this line is crazy. Tim Tebow is working the college offense to a tee in the NFL right now, but it’s not just him. Everyone is overlooking how incredible the Bronco defense has been playing since Tebow took over. They are allowing 20.0 PPG since in Tebow’s 6 games, and that includes the 45 point game against Detroit. They are shutting down the opponents passing game and limiting them on the ground. This is allowing the Broncos to keep their offense on the field, and control the time of possession by moving the ball on the ground, where they rank 1st in the NFL. The combination of Tebow and the reborn Willis McGahee are running their offense to perfection, and there’s no reason it can’t continue vs. Minnesota because they have posted great numbers against much better rush defenses so far. The Broncos could be without star defender Von Miller, who underwent surgery to repair ligaments in his thumb, but Denver is hopeful that he can play this week.
I do like what Christian Ponder has been doing since he took over this team. The only thing that he’s not doing is winning games. What hurts him this weekend is that he could be without Adrian Peterson for essentially their 2nd straight game (left early in the first half last week). If Peterson plays, the Vikings have a much better shot and controlling this game. If he sits out, the Vikings will have to pass the ball to succeed. The area where the Vikings are actually most dominant this season is special teams. With Percy Harvin returning kicks, they are a threat to take it back to the house every time it’s kicked.
What do the Broncos have to do to get some respect from Vegas? They have been an underdog in every game that Tebow has started (which isn’t really surprising) but I believe that the Broncos are clearly the better team here. I’m going to put a few units on Denver here, but I’m not locking it in until I hear a definitive word on Peterson. If he plays, I may drop it but regardless, the pick is the Broncos.
Pick:
Denver: 20 Minnesota: 13
DEN (+1) -110 – 4 Units (Correct, +$400)
Under 37.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Denver: 35 Minnesota: 32
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ Cleveland Browns (4-7)
BAL (-6.5), O/U 38
By the Numbers:
Baltimore: Cleveland:
ATS: 6-4-1 ATS: 3-7-1
SU: 8-3 SU: 4-7
PPG: 24.7 PPG: 15.0
PA: 16.5 PA: 19.6
O/U: 8-3 O/U: 4-7
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 335.6 (17) Tot: 295.9 (28)
Pass: 236.7 (13) Pass: 199.1 (24)
Rush: 98.9 (26) Rush: 96.8 (29)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 292.3 (3) Tot: 313.4 (6)
Pass: 200.8 (5) Pass: 174.7 (1)
Rush: 91.5 (3) Rush: 138.6 (29)
Trends:
Baltimore is 1-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 this season (-BAL)
Baltimore is 2-0-1 ATS against division opponents this season (+BAL)
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (+BAL)
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS on grass fields this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in home games this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 8-4 ATS after a divisional game in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+CLE)
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (-CLE)
Other useful information:
Baltimore is 0-1 ATS in a road game right after 2 consecutive home games (-BAL)
Baltimore has rushed for less than 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games (-BAL)
Baltimore has had 4 of their last 5 games go OVER the total
Baltimore has allowed 20+ points in 4 of their last 5 games (-BAL)
Cleveland has won 2 straight games ATS (+CLE)
Cleveland has had 6 of their last 7 games go UNDER the total
Cleveland has scored 14 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games (-CLE)
Recap:
I thought defense was supposed to win games. Well, tell that to the Cleveland Browns, who rank 1st in pass defense and 6th in total defense, yet they sit at 4-7. Well their offense finally got going last week against a good defense, and I think they can roll that over into this contest. Peyton Hillis really helped the running game and it helped Colt McCoy extremely. The Ravens are obviously a great defensive unit but it appears that they will be without Ray Lewis for a 3rd straight game. They have been fair without him but they obviously miss him. Hillis could find some holes in the defense that would normally be filled by Lewis which could help the Browns get points on the board.
Ray Rice, this is your game to lose. You go wild against the 29th ranked rush defense and the Ravens cruise to a victory. You struggle, and so do Flacco and the passing game. The Browns are incredible against the pass but are pretty bad against the run. If they could find a way to stop Rice, it could be a long day for Flacco. However, I think Rice should be able to have a solid game. He gives Flacco an extra receiver in the passing game which could cause havoc for this secondary. Don’t expect the rest of the receiving core to post good numbers, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Ravens’ play calling goes, since lately they have been giving less and less carries to their best player on offense.
In the AFC North, it seems that these divisional games are always close. No different here. At home the Browns would love to play spoiler against the Ravens and will come out with tons of energy. It’ll be very difficult for them to pull the upset, but they should be able to keep it within a touchdown.
Pick:
Baltimore: 24 Cleveland: 21
CLE (+6.5) – 110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 38 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Baltimore: 24 Cleveland: 10
St. Louis Rams (2-9) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-2)
SF (-13), O/U 37.5
By the Numbers:
St. Louis: San Francisco:
ATS: 2-9 ATS: 9-1-1
SU: 2-9 SU: 9-2
PPG: 12.7 PPG: 23.8
PA: 24.5 PA: 14.6
O/U: 4-6-1 O/U: 5-6
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 295.5 (29) Tot: 308.6 (26)
Pass: 190.8 (26) Pass: 179.9 (29)
Rush: 104.7 (21) Rush: 128.7 (7)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 364.1 (21) Tot: 316.7 (7)
Pass: 205.1 (8) Pass: 241.2 (21)
Rush: 159.0 (32) Rush: 75.5 (1)
Trends:
St. Louis is 2-7 ATS as an underdog this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 0-3 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-8 ATS against conference opponents this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 5-10 ATS against division opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in road games this season (-STL)
San Francisco is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 14-5 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (5-0 this season) (+SF)
San Francisco is 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season (+SF)
Other useful information:
St. Louis has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-STL)
St. Louis has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
St. Louis has allowed 126+ rushing yards in 3 straight games (-STL)
St. Louis has committed 7 turnovers in their last 3 games (-STL)
San Francisco has won 8 of their last 9 games ATS (+SF)
San Francisco has committed 1 or less turnovers in 6 of their last 7 games (+SF)
San Francisco has had 5 of their last 6 games go UNDER the total
Recap:
The 49ers came back down to Earth after their game against the Ravens. Their winning streak ended, but they should be able to get back on track against the lowly Rams. Frank Gore should have a field day, just like Beanie Wells did last week. He’ll reach the century mark on the ground without a problem and make things easy for Alex Smith. The Rams are pretty solid against the pass, but their lack of success against the run really negates that. It’ll be hard to contain tight end Vernon Davis in the passing game since their main focus will have to be on Frank Gore and even Kendall Hunter. The 49ers will obviously be good on defense like they have been all season, mainly because the Rams aren’t good on offense.
The only good offensive threat for the Rams is Steven Jackson, but you can’t expect him to have a good game against this Niner’s defense that hasn’t allowed a 100 yard rusher all season. The Rams are going to have to pass the ball to move the chains, and this is where Brandon Lloyd comes in. Bradford’s new favorite target has really helped the Rams in the passing game. The 49ers aren’t great against the pass, so this is the only chance the Rams have to keep this a game.
All of the trends lean towards the Niners, obviously. But this is such a huge spread in a divisional game. There have been a few games where the Niners have had a big lead and let up the backdoor touchdown late in the game. I’ll anticipate this happening again here and take the points.
Pick:
San Francisco: 27 St. Louis: 17
STL (+13) – 110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 37.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
San Francisco: 26 St. Louis: 0
Dallas Cowboys (7-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-7)
DAL (-4), O/U 46
By the Numbers:
Dallas: Arizona:
ATS: 4-6-1 ATS: 6-5
SU: 7-4 SU: 4-7
PPG: 24.5 PPG: 19.4
PA: 20.5 PA: 23.3
O/U: 5-6 O/U: 5-6
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 390.1 (6) Tot: 315.7 (22)
Pass: 271.6 (7) Pass: 206.4 (22)
Rush: 118.5 (13) Rush: 109.4 (19)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 331.0 (12) Tot: 373.6 (26)
Pass: 230.7 (14) Pass: 250.2 (25)
Rush: 100.3 (10) Rush: 125.5 (20)
Trends:
Dallas is 9-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-DAL)
Dallas is 0-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season (+DAL)
Dallas is 5-10 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (1-4 this season) (-DAL)
Dallas is 1-5 ATS against conference opponents this season (-DAL)
Arizona is 3-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (+ARI)
Arizona is 4-1 ATS against NFC East opponents in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+ARI)
Arizona is 1-3 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (-ARI)
Other useful information:
Dallas has lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS (-DAL)
Dallas has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
Dallas has rushed for under 90 yards in 2 straight games (-DAL)
Dallas has committed only 2 turnovers in the last 3 games (forced 7) (+DAL)
Arizona has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 games ATS (+ARI)
Arizona has committed 10 turnovers in their last 3 games (-ARI)
Arizona has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (-ARI)
Recap:
Dallas is really taking advantage of the Giants difficult second half schedule. Winners of 4 straight, Tony Romo has the Boys in prime position to run away with the NFC East. DeMarco Murray has been great at running back, and I believe that getting Felix Jones back into the lineup can only help them. Arizona isn’t very good against the rush, so Murray and Jones should be able to pick up good chunks of yardage on the ground. With that being said, Arizona is worse against the pass. Expect the Romo-Bryant connection to have a lot of success in this matchup as well as Jason Witten. The Cards will have a lot of trouble locking down the big tight end and he could find the end zone a few times before this one is over.
The Cardinals have been on an interesting run lately. They finally return home after 3 consecutive road games in which they went 2-1 ATS and SU. They now have 3 straight home games and face a tough test to start. The Cardinals expect to have Kevin Kolb back for this matchup, which is good for Arizona. Skelton has had his up and down moments filling in at quarterback, but now Kolb takes over as the starter again. The Cowboys are in the middle of the pack when it comes to pass defense, so Kolb could have some success hooking up with Fitzgerald down the field. Beanie Wells will attempt to put on an encore after posting 228 yards on the ground. He could have another good game here but might struggle to get around DeMarcus Ware on the outside. If Ware does his job on the outside, it could be a tough game for Wells on the ground.
I like the Cardinals in this game. They have been playing tough as of late against pretty solid opponents, while the Cowboys had to put away a pesky Dolphins team with a last second field goal. With Kolb back, he gives the Cards the best chance to keep up with this Dallas offense and I expect them to feed off the home crowd and pull the upset to really shake things up in the East.
Pick:
Arizona: 24 Dallas: 23
ARI (+4) – 110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Over 46 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Arizona: 19 Dallas: 13
Green Bay Packers (11-0) @ New York Giants (6-5)
GB (-7), O/U 52
By the Numbers:
Green Bay: New York:
ATS: 8-3 ATS: 4-6-1
SU: 11-0 SU: 6-5
PPG: 34.7 PPG: 22.9
PA: 20.6 PA: 25.2
O/U: 7-4 O/U: 7-4
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 401.3 (4) Tot: 373.7 (11)
Pass: 304.1 (3) Pass: 291.5 (4)
Rush: 97.2 (28 ) Rush: 82.3 (32)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 393.4 (30) Tot: 381.6(28)
Pass: 287.8 (31) Pass: 251.2 (26)
Rush: 105.5 (13) Rush: 130.5 (24)
Trends:
New York is 5-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-NYG)
New York is 1-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-NYG)
New York is 2-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (-NYG)
Green Bay is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the last 3 seasons (5-1 this season) (+GB)
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points in the last 3 seasons (4-0 this season) (+GB)
Green Bay is 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons (7-2 this season) (+GB)
Green Bay is 10-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+GB)
Other useful information:
New York has lost 3 straight games ATS (-NYG)
New York has had 2 turnovers in each of their last 4 games
New York has rushed for under 95 yards in 5 of their last 7 games (-NYG)
Green Bay has had 4 of their last 5 games go OVER the total
Green Bay has committed 5 turnovers in their last 7 games (+GB)
Green Bay has forced 13 turnovers in their last 7 games (+GB)
Recap:
The relentless second half schedule of the Giants leads on, which is never good news for a team that historically has struggled in the latter months of the season. This week the G-Men take on arguably one of the best offenses we’ve seen in years in the Green Bay Packers. Coming off a game where Drew Brees had his way with the Giants secondary, fans of the Big Blue can’t be confident. Brees threw for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns while maintaining a season high 9.55 yards per pass attempt which was impressive enough, but the stats don’t even begin to tell how dominant he was. Now this secondary needs to go against Aaron Rodgers after a short week? Oh, and the Packers played on Thanksgiving so thus have had an even longer week? Oh boy, this’ll be fun.
In past years New York has managed to stay in these types of games through a smash mouth style of offense. A great Giants rush offense allowed them to grind through games while Eli made all the throws needed to keep the Giants close. This year, however, the Giants have absolutely no rushing ability. Brandon Jacobs is a fat ballerina behind the line, and Ahmad Bradshaw has been hurt for a good chunk of the year. Bradshaw plans to play Sunday, though I’m not sure he’ll add too much to the one-dimensional Giants offense. Prior to his injury Bradshaw was largely unimpressive save two good games against a weak Eagles rush defense and a terrible Bills run D. That’s also ignoring the fact that he ran for an uninspiring 59 yards with a 3.9 YPC against the worst ranked Rams defense. The Packers have a statistically sound rush defense but that ranking might be a bit inflated because teams give up on the run quickly against a surging Packers offense. Then again, it doesn’t really matter if that ranking is inflated or not because their pass offense is so effective teams don’t even have the choice to run. Eli will likely be stuck in another shootout, and while he’s having an almost MVP caliber year, there’s no way the Giants weapons can keep up with the Packers. As always, if you needed any other reason to bet on the Packers, the angles once again are begging you to pick the Packers.
Pick:
Green Bay: 42 New York: 31
GB (-7) – 110 – 4 Units (Incorrect, -$440)
Over 52 (Correct)
Actual:
Green Bay: 38 New York: 35
Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (8-3)
NO (-9), O/U 54
By the Numbers:
Detroit: New Orleans:
ATS: 6-4-1 ATS: 7-4
SU: 7-4 SU: 8-3
PPG: 28.7 PPG: 32.9
PA: 22.4 PA: 22.9
O/U: 7-4 O/U: 6-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 376.7 (9) Tot: 449.6 (1)
Pass: 272.5 (6) Pass: 324.2 (1)
Rush: 104.3 (22) Rush: 125.5 (8)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 329.5 (10) Tot: 370.8 (25)
Pass: 202.2 (6 ) Pass: 253.7 (27)
Rush: 127.3 (23) Rush: 117.1 (17)
Trends:
Detroit is 10-3 ATS off a division game in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+DET)
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (0-0 this season) (+DET)
Detroit is 8-2 ATS off a loss against a division rival in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+DET)
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in dome games this season (+NO)
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in home games this season (+NO)
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season (+NO)
Other useful information:
Detroit has committed 12 turnovers in their last 3 games (–DET)
Detroit has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
Detroit has allowed over 125 yards rushing in 5 of their last 7 games (-DET)
Detroit has allowed under 200 yards passing in 4 of their last 7 games (+DET)
New Orleans has won 3 straight games ATS
New Orleans has committed 3 turnovers in their last 5 games (+NO)
New Orleans has averaged 484.6 yards per game at home this season (+NO)
Recap:
Before you read this recap take a second and scroll up and take a look at the offensive numbers of the New Orleans Saints. 450 total yards per game on average and just under 485 per game at home. The scary part about the Saints this year is that they have a run game to accompany Drew Brees and his disgusting aerial attack. New Orleans defies logic by putting up the 8th most rushing yards in the league despite passing the ball so much. This is a huge problem for the Lions, because as well as their secondary has been playing their run defense stinks. If the Saints are able to control the game with their run game, passing for them is going to come even easier. Compound this logic with the fact that Ndammasteponyourface Suh will rightfully be suspended in this game, and Drew Brees’ life got even easier.
Sure the Lions can, and have, put up points recently. Calvin Johnson is a monster who has already eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards this season and tied his career high in TDs. But when Stafford goes away from Johnson (or even forces it to him), the offense halts to a stop and often becomes turnover prone. The fact that Detroit has allowed an astonishing 12 turnovers in their last 3 games is scary, but note that the Saints have notched a measly 6 picks on the year. Still, 11 of those 12 turnovers have been Matt Stafford interceptions, as he has been incredibly careless with the ball. Unlike Madden, bombing it to Calvin Johnson doesn’t work every play. Without an established run game (Jahvid Best is out for the year), the Lions will have to continue to take chances in the air. An interesting stat for everyone to realize is that although the Saints refuse to intercept the ball, they have allowed the sixth lowest completion percentage in the league.
That said, I’m wary to touch this game because the Lions can put up points in a hurry and the Saints can allow them just as quickly especially in the air. I can easily see this big a spread being covered with such an explosive Lions offense, and Sean Peyton struggles to cover huge spreads. Also, while you may want to focus on how well New Orlean’s has been clicking on offense, you would do well to also respect how well Detroit’s secondary has played this season.
Pick:
New Orleans: 38 Detroit: 31
DET (+9) – 110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 54 (Incorrect)
Actual:
New Orleans: 31 Detroit: 17
San Diego Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)
SD (-2.5), O/U 39.5
By the Numbers:
San Diego: Jacksonville:
ATS: 2-9 ATS: 4-6-1
SU: 4-7 SU: 3-8
PPG: 22.6 PPG: 12.5
PA: 25.0 PA: 18.2
O/U: 5-6 O/U: 1-10
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 386.0 (7) Tot: 250.0 (32)
Pass: 276.1 (5) Pass: 131.3 (32)
Rush: 109.9 (17) Rush: 118.7 (12)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 337.2 (13) Tot: 292.5 (4)
Pass: 205.3 (9) Pass: 183.4 (4)
Rush: 131.9 (25) Rush: 109.1 (14)
Trends:
San Diego is 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season (-SD)
San Diego is13-20 ATS against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons (2-6 this season) (-SD)
San Diego is 1-4 ATS when playing on Monday night in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-SD)
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season (-JAX)
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS off a loss against a division rival in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (-JAX)
Jacksonville is 1-0 ATS when playing on Monday night this season (+JAX)
Other useful information:
San Diego has lost 6 straight games ATS (–SD)
San Diego has rushed for under 90 yards in 3 of their last 4 games (-SD)
San Diego has allowed over 135 yards rushing in 5 of their last 7 games (-SD)
Jacksonville has rushed for over 95 yards in 6 of their last 7 games (+JAX)
Jacksonville has average 1 turnover per game in their last 7 games (+JAX)
Jacksonville has passed for under 150 yards in 5 of their last 7 games (+JAX)
Recap:
The drop-off of Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers has been well documented. The change in statistics is absolutely staggering, as Rivers is struggling to keep a 1:1 TD:INT ratio (currently, he has a 16:17 TD:INT ratio, yikes). Yeah, that’s bad, but Blaine Gabbert’s hardly impressed. This matchup will be a battle of the seemingly incompetent quarterbacks of this year. Luckily for San Diego, Rivers has still been able to put up plenty of yardage (5th most in the league up to this point) and has a running back in Ryan Mathews coming into his own. Mathews has played well when he’s been able to stay on the field, in fact he’s put up YPC of 6.2, 5.2, amd 4.7 in the few games he’s been able to carry the ball 20 times. San Diego goes up against an average Jaguars rush defense but a superb (statistically) Jacksonville secondary. Of course, the Jaguars defense is merely a shell of what it was at the beginning of the season. Regardless, if Norv Turner wants to keep his job, if it’s not already lost, he needs to establish Mathews in this contest. There is no need to even give Philip Rivers the chance to add to his league leading 17 interceptions on the year with Mathews coming off a huge game.
Jacksonville’s passing offense is equally depressing. Blaine Gabbert has managed to eclipse the 200 yard milestone only twice this year, and has never even sniffed 250 yards. In an unrelated but hilarious note, he actually has a better TD:INT ratio than the aforementioned Rivers…Anyway, it’s no secret the key to the Jaguars offense is Maurice Jones-Drew. Luckily for Jacksonville he faces a awful Chargers run defense, one that has allowed over 135 yards rushing in 5 of their last 7 games. I think this trend changes in this game, however, because San Diego will gladly stack the box against MJD. If I were Norv Turner I’d consider stacking the box with the entire 11 players of my defense every play. If Jones-Drew is able to fight through multiple defenders like he usually does, Jacksonville will be able to control the tempo of the game and keep any kind of scoring threat off the field. If not, there no way Jacksonville has nearly enough firepower to keep up with Rivers, even with his NFL leading interception total. One last interesting note is that Jacksonville’s last 5 losses have been by an average of 7 points, despite playing the Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, and Texans twice. However, the firing of long-time coach Jack Del Rio also has to be a huge distraction to the team midweek, especially to vets like Jones-Drew who has played with 1 coach his entire career. Also, a confused Gabbert with a new coach is likely to be a mess.
I’m not touching this game because I favor San Diego’s talent but there’s just no way I can trust them anymore. Vegas has made a killing off chumps continuously betting San Diego despite a lack of results and I refuse to be trapped by this low spread. I’m especially scared off by Jacksonville’s ugly win against Baltimore in Jacksonville a few weeks ago on this same stage. Way too many variables.
Pick:
San Diego: 17 Jacksonville: 13
SD (-2.5) – 110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Under 39.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
San Diego: 38 Jacksonville: 14
WalterFootballSucks.com 