Cleveland Browns (4-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
PIT (-14), O/U: 38.5
By the Numbers:
Cleveland: Pittsburgh:
ATS: 3-8-1 ATS: 6-6
SU: 4-8 SU: 9-3
PPG: 14.6 PPG: 22.3
PA: 20.0 PA: 16.3
O/U: 4-8 O/U: 6-6
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 290.7 (30) Tot: 367.9 (11)
Pass: 197.0 (24) Pass: 256.1 (9)
Rush: 93.7 (30) Rush: 111.8 (18)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 324.6 (8) Tot: 273.8 (1)
Pass: 173.3 (1) Pass: 176.8 (2)
Rush: 151.2 (31) Rush: 96.9 (7)
Trends:
Cleveland is 0-1 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS on grass fields this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 10-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (+CLE)
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 3-6 ATS against conference opponents this season (-CLE)
Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points in the last 3 seasons (1-3 this season) (-PIT)
Pittsburgh is 11-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons (3-2 this season) (+PIT)
Other useful information:
Cleveland has won 2 of their last 3 games ATS (+CLE)
Cleveland has had 7 of their last 8 games go UNDER the total
Cleveland has committed 4 turnovers in their last 4 games (1 each game)
Cleveland has rushed for 125+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games (+CLE)
Cleveland has allowed only 200+ yards passing 3 times this season (1-2 ATS in those games) (+CLE)
Cleveland has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 6 straight games (-CLE)
Pittsburgh has won 2 of their last 3 games ATS (+PIT)
Pittsburgh has had their last 2 games go UNDER the total
Pittsburgh has forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 0-2 ATS in their 2nd straight home game this season (-PIT)
Recap:
This game has blowout written all over it. Cleveland has no business being in this game, especially with a short travel week. Pittsburgh will be up for this game for several reasons. It’s a divisional game and they need to keep pace with the Ravens as well as attempt to separate themselves from Cincinnati. They can’t afford to sleep on this game if not just to keep pace, but to also help their divisional record come tiebreakers. Heinz Field is a difficult place to play and the Brown’s offense is awful. Colt McCoy is below average and Peyton Hillis is questionable for the game. Even if Hillis does play, he doesn’t seem very focused this season and he’s going up against one of the better rush defenses in the league. Couple their terrible offense against one of the best defenses and the league, and we can confidently say that Cleveland won’t be sniffing the end zone.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has the pleasure of going up against the Brown’s terrible rush defense. Despite a down year from Rashard Mendenhall the Steelers have a middle of the pack rushing offense. While Cleveland’s gaudy pass defense numbers may look on the surface to be great, it is important to note that Cleveland’s schedule, passer wise, has included a rookie in his first ever start, Curtis Painter, Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, and Blaine Gabbert. Even though a few of those QBs aren’t having terrible years, none of them put up many yards. Ben Roethlisberger should be able to move the chains fairly easily and score points.
Clinching Scenario:
The Steelers can clinch a playoff spot with a win + one of the following: Losses by the Bengals, Jets and Titans or losses by the Bengals Jets, Broncos and Raiders or losses by the Bengals, Titans, Broncos and Raiders.
Pick:
Pittsburgh: 27 Cleveland: 9
PIT (-14) – 110 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$220)
Under 38.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Pittsburgh: 14 Cleveland: 3
Indianapolis Colts (0-12) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
BAL (-16), O/U 40.5
By the Numbers:
Indianapolis: Baltimore:
ATS: 3-9 ATS: 7-4-1
SU: 0-12 SU: 9-3
PPG: 14.5 PPG: 24.7
PA: 29.8 PA: 16.0
O/U: 7-4-1 O/U: 8-4
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 293.1 (29) Tot: 345.0 (15)
Pass: 194.1 (26) Pass: 230.2 (14)
Rush: 99.0 (26) Rush: 114.8 (14)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 387.1 (28) Tot: 287.3 (3)
Pass: 242.9 (22) Pass: 198.6 (5)
Rush: 144.2 (30) Rush: 88.8 (2)
Trends:
Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points this season (+IND)
Indianapolis is 2-6 ATS against conference opponents this season (-IND)
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season (-IND)
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in road games this season (-IND)
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS against conference opponents this season (+BAL)
Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+BAL)
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in home games this season (+BAL)
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season in the last 3 seasons (+BAL)
Other useful information:
Indianapolis has lost 7 of their last 8 games ATS (-IND)
Indianapolis has rushed for under 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games (-IND)
Indianapolis has had 2+ turnovers in 9 of their 12 games this season (-IND)
Baltimore has won 2 straight games ATS (+BAL)
Baltimore has had 2 straight games go UNDER the total
Baltimore has rushed for 100+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games (+BAL)
Baltimore has forced 5 turnovers in their last 3 games (+BAL)
Recap:
I normally don’t like to lay out 2+ touchdowns, but I think I can make an exception here. Assuming that Pittsburgh knocks off Cleveland (which the Ravens will know before they play on Sunday) this becomes a game that Baltimore can’t sleep on to keep pace in the AFC North.
There’s no way that the Colts will be able to slow down the Ravens offense and unlike last week against New England, Indy won’t be able to move the ball against this stud-filled Ravens D. Bettors may be wary of betting against the Colts with big spreads after last week’s insane backdoor cover, but New England’s defense is on pace to shatter the record for most yards allowed in a season. The Ravens allow an incredible 16 points per game, and that’s against actual NFL offenses. A Dan Orvlovsky-led offense will struggle even more than Colt McCoy against this stingy defense. Meanwhile, even if Joe Flacco has one of his Jekyll-Hyde games and disappears as a passer, as long as Cam Cameron doesn’t forget about Ray Rice the Ravens will have no problem scoring against a defense that struggles to stop any semblance of offense.
If you’ve been reading our picks weekly, you know we like big spreads with teams that have a strong running game and this is a perfect scenario for that. Ray Rice is a great runner and is going up against the 30th ranked rushing defense. Logically, even when the Ravens will be looking to run the clock out they’ll have ample opportunity to score and cover without a problem.
Pick:
Baltimore: 31 Indianapolis: 3
BAL (-16) – 110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, -$110)
Under 40.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Baltimore: 24 Indianapolis: 10
Houston Texans (9-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
CIN (-3), O/U 37.5
By the Numbers:
Houston: Cincinnati:
ATS: 8-3-1 ATS: 7-4-1
SU: 9-3 SU: 7-5
PPG: 25.8 PPG: 22.2
PA: 15.8 PA: 20.8
O/U: 3-9 O/U: 9-2-1
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 376.2 (10) Tot: 326.1 (18)
Pass: 223.6 (17) Pass: 218.0 (19)
Rush: 152.6 (3) Rush: 108.1 (20)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 274.1 (2) Tot: 306.7 (6)
Pass: 183.4 (3) Pass: 210.3 (10)
Rush: 90.7 (4) Rush: 96.3 (6)
Trends:
Houston is 4-0 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 this season (+HOU)
Houston is 6-2 ATS against conference opponents this season (+HOU)
Houston is 7-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons (4-1 this season) (+HOU)
Houston is 3-6 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (-HOU)
Houston is 3-5 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season in the last 3 seasons (-HOU)
Houston is 4-2 ATS in road games this season (+HOU)
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 4-13 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons (3-2 this season) (-CIN)
Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS against AFC South opponents this season (+CIN)
Other useful information:
Houston has won 5 of their last 6 games ATS (pushed other contest) (+HOU)
Houston has had 4 of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
Houston has had 3 turnovers in their last 4 games (+HOU)
Houston has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 1 of their last 5 games (+HOU)
Cincinnati has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (pushed other contest) (-CIN)
Cincinnati has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
Cincinnati has rushed for 100+ yards in 5 straight games (+CIN)
Cincinnati has had 2+ turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games (-CIN)
Cincinnati has forced 1 or 0 turnovers in 5 straight games (-CIN)
Recap:
Houston proved that their running game and defense can lead them to a victory against virtually anybody. Even before Matt Schaub went down, Gary Kubiak wasn’t exactly depending on the QB position. Besides a shootout with the Saints, and a 400 yard game against the Raiders, Schaub never even eclipsed 300 yards passing. Atlanta was in the top 3 in rushing defense last weekend and the Texans still managed 162 yards on the ground. Cincinnati has just as good of a defense as Atlanta but a much weaker offense with far less weapons. On top of this, the Texans defense has been playing out of its mind this season (top 4 rankings in all categories without Mario Williams?!) and has a reason to stay motivated knowing they’ll have to be at the top of their game with rookie TJ Yates manning the helm on offense.
Still, the Texans will rely on controlling possession and the few chances rookie Andy Dalton gets will be a tall task against this defense. The reason Dalton and the Bengals have been able to come back in games is because teams let them hang around (see: Pittsburgh a few weeks ago), and with the fewer possessions to play with, Cinci will struggle to keep it close. Furthermore, against the better defenses Dalton has faced (49ers, Pittx2, Balt) his production has severely dropped. In those 4 games, Dalton has thrown for 4 touchdowns and 7 picks.
Houston has a chance to wrap up the division this week with a little help, they’ll rally around Yates and the running game.
Clinching Scenarios:
The Texans can clinch the AFC South on Sunday with a win + a Tennessee loss.
Pick:
Houston: 17 Cincinnati: 14
HOU (+3) – 115 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Under 37.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Houston: 20 Cincinnati: 19
Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) @ New York Jets (7-5)
NYJ (-9), O/U 36.5
By the Numbers:
Kansas City: New York:
ATS: 7-5 ATS: 5-7
SU: 5-7 SU: 7-5
PPG: 13.6 PPG: 24.2
PA: 22.3 PA: 21.7
O/U: 3-9 O/U: 8-4
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 299.8 (27) Tot: 310.8 (26)
Pass: 179.2 (30) Pass: 210.3 (20)
Rush: 120.7 (9) Rush: 100.4 (24)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 344.2 (16) Tot: 317.5 (7)
Pass: 213.8 (12) Pass: 204.6 (7)
Rush: 130.3 (25) Rush: 112.9 (15)
Trends:
Kansas City is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season (+KC)
Kansas City is 13-9 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (4-2 this season) (+KC)
Kansas City is 0-5 ATS against AFC East opponents in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (-KC)
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+KC)
New York is 12-7 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+NYJ)
New York is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season (-NYJ)
New York is 3-3 ATS in home games this season
Other useful information:
Kansas City has won 2 straight games ATS (+KC)
Kansas City has had 7 straight games go UNDER the total
Kansas City has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games (+KC)
Kansas City has committed 8 turnovers in their last 3 games (-KC)
New York had lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-NYJ)
New York has had 2+ turnovers in 5 of their last 6 games (-NYJ)
New York has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
New York has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 2 of their last 3 games (-NYJ)
Recap:
I know that it was against Caleb Hanie, but the Chiefs defense looked pretty solid last week. Their pass defense, especially Brandon Flowers, is very solid which could cause trouble for Mark Sanchez who is only averaging 223 pass yards per game. Flowers is a physical corner who has deceptive closing speed and can shut down Santonio Holmes with his quickness or Plaxico Burress with his pure power and physicality. The Jets offense isn’t one that can blow teams out, and 9 points is a lot to give for a team that struggled to put away the Redskins last week (despite the score, the game was close to the very end) and Bills two weeks ago.
The Jets defense also isn’t what it used to be and even though this is a must win game for them, I don’t know if they’ll take Tyler Palko seriously to start, which will keep the Chiefs in the game. The status of Kyle Orton is currently up in the air, but if Orton plays this line is great value. Expect a game filled with running, as both teams weaker points on defense are stopping the run and both offenses love running the ball. As a result of this, I can’t imagine the score will get out of hand enough for the Jets to cover 9 points. Expect the Chiefs to linger score-wise but never really be in the game with 25+ carries for each team’s starting running back.
Pick:
New York: 23 Kansas City: 17
KC (+9) – 110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Over 36.5 (Correct)
Actual:
New York: 37 Kansas City: 10
New Orleans Saints (9-3) @ Tennessee Titans (7-5)
NO (-3.5), O/U 48.5
By the Numbers:
New Orleans: Tennessee:
ATS: 8-4 ATS: 6-5-1
SU: 9-3 SU: 7-5
PPG: 32.8 PPG: 20.8
PA: 22.4 PA: 19.1
O/U: 6-6 O/U: 4-7-1
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 448.7 (1) Tot: 319.3 (22)
Pass: 325.3 (1) Pass: 222.5 (18)
Rush: 123.3 (8) Rush: 96.8 (28)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 378.8 (27) Tot: 355.3 (18)
Pass: 264.2 (30) Pass: 233.5 (18)
Rush: 114.6 (16) Rush: 121.8 (21)
Trends:
New Orleans is 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+NO)
New Orleans is 3-0 ATS against non-conference opponents this season (+NO)
New Orleans is 13-6 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (4-1 this season) (+NO)
New Orleans is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 this season (-NO)
New Orleans is 9-14 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (2-4 this season) (-NO)
Tennessee is 2-0 ATS against NFC South opponents this season (+TEN)
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS against non-conference opponents in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (+TEN)
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season (+TEN)
Other useful information:
New Orleans has won 4 straight games ATS (+NO)
New Orleans has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
New Orleans has had 0 turnovers in their last 3 games (++NO)
New Orleans is 1-0 ATS in the 1st of 2 consecutive road games this season (+NO)
New Orleans has allowed less than 100 yards rushing in 3 of their last 4 games (+NO)
Tennessee has won 4 straight games ATS (+TEN)
Tennessee has had 4 straight games go UNDER the total
Tennessee has had 1 or 0 turnovers in 5 of their last 6 games (+TEN)
Recap:
Everybody is talking about how it’s impossible to bet against Aaron Rodgers right now. Why is no one saying how it is impossible to bet against Drew Brees right now? The man is on fire, putting up ridiculous numbers as he inches closer to an NFC South crown. One would assume that a quarterback who averages 337 yards passing per game would be somewhat turnover prone, but Brees has only thrown 11 interceptions to go along with his 30 touchdowns. This success is showing for bettors too, as the Saints have won 4 straight against the spread. Brees, however, isn’t the only bright spot of the Saints; New Orleans running game led by Darren Sproles is 8th best in the league, and Sean Peyton does a great job of catching defenses off guard. It’s hard enough to defend Drew Brees when he’s passing all over you, but when he’s got a quick shifty back that has big play ability to complement him? Good luck. The Titans defense is below average, especially against the run which will pose serious problems.
On top of that, the Titans offense is nothing more than average. Chris Johnson may be showing flashes of his old self, but he still hasn’t proven anything to me. After a breakout game against Carolina where he ran for 130 yards earlier this year, he struggled against a real rushing defense (Atlanta) and carried 12 times for 13 yards. Of course, CJ2K has been effective the past two weeks but he hasn’t faced an even average defense, both the Bills and Bucs struggle immensely against the rush. Unless he establishes himself early and the Titans are able to control the clock there’s no way they’ll be able to keep up with the tempo of the Saints.
This is more of an important game for Tennessee as they are holding onto their playoff lives, but the Saints would love to try and steal that first round bye away from San Francisco. They’ll come into Tennessee and keep their offense rolling. This spread is crazy because there is no way on a neutral field the Saints are easily a touchdown better than the Titans. I’m keeping this a small play though, just because there are a lot of trends leaning the Titans’ way and Chris Johnson may be back.
Clinching Scenario:
The Saints can clinch the NFC South with a win + a Falcons loss. The Saints can also clinch a playoff spot with a win + a loss from either the Detroit Lions or the Chicago Bears.
Pick:
New Orleans: 38 Tennessee: 20
NO (-3.5) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Over 48.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
New Orleans: 22 Tennessee: 17
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) @ Miami Dolphins (4-8)
MIA (-3), O/U 44
By the Numbers:
Philadelphia: Miami:
ATS: 4-8 ATS: 7-5
SU: 4-8 SU: 4-8
PPG: 22.6 PPG: 20.5
PA: 23.5 PA: 18.3
O/U: 6-5-1 O/U: 2-10
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 412.6 (3) Tot: 320.2 (21)
Pass: 255.5 (10) Pass: 201.8 (23)
Rush: 157.1 (2) Rush: 118.4 (13)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 344.8 (17) Tot: 342.1 (15)
Pass: 229.2 (13) Pass: 248.9 (24)
Rush: 115.6 (17) Rush: 93.2 (5)
Trends:
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 this season (-PHI)
Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-PHI)
Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (-PHI)
Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS against AFC East opponents this season (-PHI)
Miami is 3-0 ATS against NFC East opponents this seasons (+MIA)
Miami is 3-0 ATS in non-conference games this season (+MIA)
Miami is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season (+MIA)
Miami is 8-14 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (3-3 this season) (-MIA)
Other useful information:
Philadelphia has lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS (-PHI)
Philadelphia has had their last 2 games go OVER the total
Philadelphia has had 2+ turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games (-PHI)
Miami has won 6 straight games ATS (+MIA)
Miami has 1 turnover in their last 3 games (forced 5) (+MIA)
Miami has rushed for under 100 yards in 2 of their last 3 games (-MIA)
Miami has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in 5 of their last 6 games (+MIA)
Recap:
This game is screaming for a Miami win. The Eagles are garbage and won’t improve much with Michael Vick back under center. Vick’s only steady receiver is Jeremy Maclin who is just now coming back from injury and hasn’t practiced in weeks. Desean Jackson, while healthy, has been a disaster this season. He’s lazy, gives up on plays, and is showing every other team in the league why teams passed on him 4 years ago in the draft. Furthermore, he hasn’t had a receiving touchdown since early October. Lesean McCoy is the only bright spot on this offense that had such high expectations. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they won’t be able to rely on the only non-headcase they have on offense because Miami has been stout against the run as of late. As mentioned above, Miami has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in 5 of their last 6 games. The Eagles will have to lean on Michael Vick passing the ball which could mean trouble because the every time Vick has thrown more than 30 times in a game he has been picked at least once besides opening weekend against the paltry Rams. Heck, let’s throw away the completion correlation, Vick has thrown for at least one pick in every game but his fluke performance against the Cowboys and the aforementioned Rams game.
The Dolphins are playing like a playoff team right now and the Eagles are pretty terrible in every aspect of the game. If Reggie Bush runs like he did last week against Oakland (22/100/1) and Matt Moore protects the ball like he has been, the Dolphins should have no problem here. How well has Moore managed games lately? In his last 3 games Mighty Matt has thrown for 5 touchdowns and 0 picks. These two teams couldn’t be more opposite, the Eagles are free falling while the Dolphins are playing at their top potential.
Pick:
Miami: 28 Philadelphia: 17
MIA (-3) – 110 – 3 Units (Incorrect, -$330)
Over 44 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Philadelphia: 26 Miami: 10
New England (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (4-8)
NE (-8), O/U 47.5
By the Numbers:
New England: Washington:
ATS: 7-5 ATS: 5-7
SU: 9-3 SU: 4-8
PPG: 30.2 PPG: 16.8
PA: 20.6 PA: 21.3
O/U: 7-5 O/U: 5-7
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 423.8 (2) Tot: 320.8 (20)
Pass: 316.6 (2) Pass: 233.3 (13)
Rush: 107.2 (21) Rush: 87.5 (31)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 412.1 (32) Tot: 325.2 (9)
Pass: 310.0 (32) Pass: 208.8 (9)
Rush: 102.1 (10) Rush: 116.5 (18)
Trends:
New England is 10-5 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+NE)
New England is 1-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season (-NE)
New England is 5-2 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season in the last 3 seasons (+NE)
New England is 4-2 ATS in road games this season (+NE)
Washington is 1-3 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (-WAS)
Washington is 0-3 ATS in non-conference games this season (-WAS)
Washington is 2-4 ATS in home games this season (-WAS)
Other useful information:
New England has won 3 of their last 4 games ATS (+NE)
New England has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
New England has committed 1 turnover in their last 4 games (+NE)
New England is 0-1 ATS in the 1st of 2 consecutive road games (-NE)
New England has scored 31+ points in 4 straight games (+NE)
Washington has won 2 of their last 3 games ATS (+WAS)
Washington has had their last 3 games go OVER the total
Washington has rushed for 100+ yards in their last 2 games (rushed for less than 100 in previous 6 games) (+WAS)
Washington has committed 2+ turnovers in 11 of their 12 games this season (-WAS)
Recap:
Looking at this matchup quickly, there’s no reason why the Patriots shouldn’t blow out the Redskins. However, the Skins’ defense has been stepping up all season and slowing down the opposition. Will they stop Brady? Hell no. But I can definitely see a backdoor cover, just like the 2 touchdowns that the Patriots let up against Indy last weekend in garbage time. Against teams like the Redskins, the Patriots will have no trouble winning, but how long can they continue to outscore opponents?
The Pats defense is what’s keeping me from betting this matchup. Quite frankly, I just can’t trust them. They let up too many stupid scores and are prone to allow the big pass, even to quarterbacks like Rex Grossman. Santana Moss is back and it’s clear that he’s Rex’s favorite target. Last week against the Jets, Moss had 12 targets, the most he’s seen all season, for 5 catches. Against a much worse Patriots secondary, if he gets similar target numbers expect him to have a bigger day. The Redskins have a top 10 secondary and a nasty pass rush that has the 5th most sacks in the league. If the Patriots decide to try and attack Washington’s weakness, their run defense, Grossman and the suddenly surging Roy Helu (two straight 100 yard games) will have no trouble keeping this game within a touchdown.
Clinching Scenarios:
The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win + a Jets loss.
Pick:
New England: 31 Washington: 27
WAS (+8) – 110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Over 47.5 (Correct)
Actual:
New England: 34 Washington: 27
Atlanta Falcons (7-5) @ Carolina Panthers (4-8)
ATL (-3), O/U 48
By the Numbers:
Atlanta: Carolina:
ATS: 4-6-2 ATS: 7-5
SU: 7-5 SU: 4-8
PPG: 22.4 PPG: 24.2
PA: 20.3 PA: 27.0
O/U: 3-9 O/U: 7-4-1
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 363.5 (13) Tot: 397.6 (5)
Pass: 249.8 (11) Pass: 260.0 (8)
Rush: 113.8 (16) Rush: 137.6 (5)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 329.8 (10) Tot: 363.0 (21)
Pass: 239.8 (21) Pass: 230.5 (15)
Rush: 90.0 (3) Rush: 132.5 (27)
Trends:
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 this season (-ATL)
Atlanta is 0-3 ATS on grass fields this season (-ATL)
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season in the last 3 seasons (+ATL)
Atlanta is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less this season (-ATL)
Atlanta is 11-4 ATS against a team with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+ATL)
Carolina is 3-1 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent this season (+CAR)
Carolina is 4-9 ATS after a divisional game in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (-CAR)
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in home games this season (+CAR)
Other useful information:
Atlanta has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-ATL)
Atlanta has had 8 straight games go UNDER the total
Atlanta has rushed for under 90 yards in their last 2 games (-ATL)
Atlanta has had less than 2 turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games (+ATL)
Atlanta has allowed less than 90 rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (+ATL)
Carolina has won 2 straight games ATS (+CAR)
Carolina has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (-CAR)
Carolina has scored 27+ points in their last 3 games (+CAR)
Carolina was defeated by Atlanta 31-17 in week 6
Recap:
I’m not getting a real good read on this game at all. Atlanta is the better team, but struggles away from home. However, they thrive when playing teams with bad records as of late, but have been struggling covering spreads. Matt Ryan who previously had been playing great is coming off one of his worst games QB rating wise in 35 starts. The team as a whole came out flat against an ailing Texans team who had no quarterback and who lost their Pro Bowl wide receiver mid-game. Even the Falcons run defense looked lost last week, their one bright spot on defense. Arian Foster chugged for 111 yards and caught a couple of passes for 41 more. Can we depend on this team that looked so lost against a Houston team that was really down on its luck?
The Panthers, on the other hand are on a roll after winning 2 straight road games (2-0 ATS) and would love to play spoiler here. This is another case of a better team that’s on a downfall versus a team with less talent on an uptrend. I’ll take the home dog here just because Cam Newton is finding ways to win (& score) and if he doesn’t, he keeps it close. The Falcons have a less than stellar secondary, and Newton is multifaceted in that he can run on your secondary and pass. His offense has also been putting up tons of points lately, scoring 27+ their last 3 games. It can’t hurt to add an extra +3 to an offense with that type of scoring average.
Pick:
Atlanta: 24 Carolina: 23
CAR (+3) – 130 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 48 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Atlanta: 31 Carolina: 23
Minnesota Vikings (2-10) @ Detroit Lions (7-5)
DET (-10), O/U 46.5
By the Numbers:
Minnesota Detroit
ATS: 4-6-2 ATS: 6-5-1
SU: 2-10 SU: 7-5
PPG: 20.5 PPG: 27.8
PA: 27.5 PA: 23.1
O/U: 7-5 O/U: 7-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 329.4 (17) Tot: 384.2 (8)
Pass: 194.1 (26) Pass: 281.3 (5)
Rush: 135.3 (6) Rush: 102.8 (23)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 356.0 (19) Tot: 338.5 (13)
Pass: 252.2 (26) Pass: 213.5 (11)
Rush: 103.8 (12) Rush: 125.0 (22)
Trends:
Minnesota is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+MIN)
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (-MIN)
Minnesota is 1-7 ATS when avenging a loss against an opponent in the last 3 seasons (-MIN)
Minnesota is 1-3 ATS against teams with a winning record (-MIN)
Detroit is 7-4 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons (4-2 this season) (+DET)
Detroit is 6-2 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons (+DET)
Detroit is 2-0 ATS against teams with a losing record (+DET)
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season in the last 3 seasons (+DET)
Other useful information:
Minnesota has lost 4 straight games ATS (-MIN)
Minnesota has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
Minnesota has committed 8 turnovers in their last 3 games (forced 4) (-MIN)
Minnesota has rushed for 100+ yards in 5 of their last 6 games (+MIN)
Detroit has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-DET)
Detroit has committed 7 turnovers in their last 3 games (forced 0 in their last 2) (-DET)
Detroit has scored 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games (-DET)
Detroit defeated Minnesota 26-23 in week 3
Recap:
Detroit is going backwards right now, but it’s hard to really judge them considering their last 2 games were against the Packers and Saints. Minnesota looked pretty decent against a Denver D that has been playing pretty solid as of late. Even though they are on the road, I expect the Vikings to keep it close. Once a line is posted I’ll give a more definitive pick, and AP’s status will determine if this game has units on it.
Line Posted: I still like Minnesota in this matchup. AP’s status is still in question and now Christian Ponder might be sitting this one out. I think the Vikings have a pretty good shot in this matchup even if Joe Webb gets the start. Peterson has returned to practice and it appears he’ll play. Minnesota kept it close with the Lions the last time they met and that was when the Lions were hot. Joe Webb should be able to use his legs and his arm to keep the Vikings in this one the whole way.
Pick:
Detroit: 27 Minnesota: 24
MIN (+10) – 110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Over 46.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Detroit: 34 Minnesota: 28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)
TB (-2), O/U 39
By the Numbers:
Tampa Bay: Jacksonville:
ATS: 4-8 ATS: 3-9
SU: 4-8 SU: 3-9
PPG: 18.2 PPG: 12.7
PA: 27.4 PA: 19.8
O/U: 7-5 O/U: 2-10
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 335.6 (16) Tot: 254.7 (32)
Pass: 235.9 (12) Pass: 135.1 (32)
Rush: 99.7 (25) Rush: 119.6 (11)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 393.8 (30) Tot: 304.2 (5)
Pass: 252.2 (26) Pass: 192.6 (4)
Rush: 141.7 (29) Rush: 111.6 (14)
Trends:
Tampa Bay is 3-12 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons (2-6 this season) (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 3-9 ATS after a divisional game in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 14-6 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (2-3 this season) (+TB)
Jacksonville is 9-13 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-4 this season) (-JAX)
Jacksonville is 2-8 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-JAX)
Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season in the last 3 seasons (-JAX)
Jacksonville is 0-2 ATS against NFC South opponents this season (-JAX)
Other useful information:
Tampa Bay has lost 5 of their last 6 games ATS (-TB)
Tampa Bay has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
Tampa Bay has lost 6 straight games SU (-TB)
Tampa Bay has allowed 160+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 6 games (-TB)
Tampa Bay has committed 12 turnovers in their last 4 games (-TB)
Jacksonville has had 6 of their last 7 games go UNDER the total
Jacksonville has lost 3 straight games ATS (-JAX)
Jacksonville has scored 20 points or less in every game this season (-JAX)
Recap:
God this is a terrible game. Josh Johnson vs. Blaine Gabbert. If I had to choose a side, I’d take the Jags solely because of MJD. Tampa Bay is terrible on defense, especially against the run. The Jags are very solid on defense so they shouldn’t have a problem stopping the Bucs on offense, I just don’t know if the Jags offense can score. Plus they are coming off a short week, so there’s likely no chance I’m betting this game. We’ll update more when the line is posted.
Line Posted: I like the Jags because as mentioned before, MJD should have no problems with the Bucs’ defense. However, I just don’t know how much scoring this Jaguars team can really put up. I think they’ll win the game, but their offense is just too shaky to bet on in this spot.
Pick:
Jacksonville: 13 Tampa Bay: 7
JAX (+2) – 110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Under 39 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Jacksonville: 41 Tampa Bay: 14
San Francisco 49ers (10-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-7)
SF (-3.5), O/U 39.5
By the Numbers:
San Francisco: Arizona:
ATS: 10-1-1 ATS: 7-5
SU: 10-2 SU: 5-7
PPG: 24.0 PPG: 19.3
PA: 13.4 PA: 22.4
O/U: 5-7 O/U: 5-7
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 315.3 (24) Tot: 316.7 (23)
Pass: 185.3 (29) Pass: 207.8 (21)
Rush: 130.0 (7) Rush: 108.8 (19)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 303.4 (4) Tot: 370.5 (25)
Pass: 231.6 (16) Pass: 251.1 (25)
Rush: 71.8 (1) Rush: 119.4 (19)
Trends:
San Francisco is 10-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons (5-0 this season) (+SF)
San Francisco is 17-7 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons (7-0 this season) (+SF)
San Francisco is 8-0 ATS against conference opponents this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 10-4 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (4-0 this season) (+SF)
San Francisco is 11-4 ATS against division opponents in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season)
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in road games this season (+SF)
Arizona is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (+ARI)
Arizona is 1-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-ARI)
Arizona is 6-10 ATS against division opponents in the last 3 seasons (2-2 this season) (-ARI)
Other useful information:
San Francisco has won every game ATS that they have won SU (+SF)
San Francisco has had 3 straight games go UNDER the total
San Francisco has rushed for 140+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games (+SF)
San Francisco has not allowed a 100 yard rusher or a rushing TD this season (++SF)
San Francisco has committed 1 or 0 turnovers in 6 straight games (+SF)
San Francisco has allowed 20 points or less in 10 of their 12 games this season (+SF)
Arizona has won 5 of their last 6 games ATS (+ARI)
Arizona has had 4 of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
Arizona has had 2+ turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games (-ARI)
Arizona has rushed for 100+ yards in their last 2 games (+ARI)
Arizona has allowed less than 90 yards rushing in their last 2 games (+ARI)
Recap:
According to Walter, teams tend to give 110% when their starting quarterback (usually a team’s best player) is out. Well, the Niners might be without their defensive quarterback inside linebacker Patrick Willis (their best player) in this one, and the defense will have to work extra hard without him. The 49ers can’t afford to sleep on the Cardinals because the Saints are right on their tail for the ever important 1st round bye. Arizona would love nothing more than to spoil the 49ers season, especially considering the hatred that has developed between these two teams.. I know this probably sounds like a broken record, but the Cardinals won’t be able to do anything on the ground against the Niners, so Kolb will have to win this game on his own, which I just don’t see happening. Even when Kolb was healthy, he was nothing special for the Cardinals and it doesn’t help that his time away has probably killed any chemistry he may have developed with Larry Fitzgerald. On top of this, the 49ers have a top 10 pass rush while the Cardinals have the 2nd worst offensive line in the league statistically. Without the aid of Beanie Wells, Kolb is going to get killed and will likely be forced into a few turnovers.
On the 49ers side of the ball, Alex Smith has developed beyond just a game manager as the year has gone on. His 15 touchdowns to 5 interceptions ratio is one of the tops in the league and he is making better decisions than he’s ever made as a starter. This goes beyond just throwing bad throws that are picked, it’s plays like taking a sack rather than forcing a play or throwing it away when there’s nothing there. He has developed as a leader of the offense, which is something San Fran fans have been begging for for years. He faces off against a terrible defense, as does stud running back Frank Gore, both with chips on their shoulders. The bad blood between this team will surely transfer over with the 49ers new coaching regime, as Vernon Davis and Darnell Dockett were trash talking earlier this season on Twitter. This can and probably will come back to bite the Cardinals, who have made a living off catching teams by surprise. Expect the 49ers to come out swinging in this divisional game to stave off New Orleans for the elusive second bye.
Pick:
San Francisco: 26 Arizona: 17
SF (-3.5) – 110 – 3 Units (Incorrect, -$330)
Over 39.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Arizona: 21 San Francisco: 19
Chicago Bears (7-5) @ Denver Broncos (7-5)
DEN (-3.5), O/U 35.5
By the Numbers:
Chicago: Denver:
ATS: 6-6 ATS: 7-5
SU: 7-5 SU: 7-5
PPG: 24.3 PPG: 21.3
PA: 20.2 PA: 24.3
O/U: 7-5 O/U: 6-5-1
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 325.8 (19) Tot: 314.8 (25)
Pass: 206.4 (22) Pass: 155.8 (31)
Rush: 119.4 (12) Rush: 158.9 (1)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 359.3 (20) Tot: 366.4 (24)
Pass: 259.5 (28) Pass: 245.2 (23)
Rush: 99.8 (8) Rush: 121.2 (20)
Trends:
Chicago is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-CHI)
Chicago is 2-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-CHI)
Chicago is 1-3 ATS in road games this season (-CHI)
Chicago is 5-3 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season in the last 3 seasons (+CHI)
Denver is 1-4 ATS in home games this season (-DEN)
Denver is 7-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season) (+DEN)
Denver is 6-2 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+DEN)
Other useful information:
Chicago has lost 2 straight games ATS (both with Caleb Hanie) (-CHI)
Chicago has had 4 of their last 5 games go OVER the total
Chicago has rushed for 93 yards in 2 of their last 3 games (-CHI)
Chicago has committed 6 turnovers in their last 2 games (forced 2) (-CHI)
Chicago has not passed for over 300 yards all season
Denver has won 5 straight games ATS (+DEN)
Denver has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
Denver has rushed for 115+ yards in 9 straight games (+DEN)
Denver has had 3 turnovers in their last 5 games (+DEN)
Recap:
All aboard the Tebow Express! Everyone is talking about how Tebow is winning games (which he clearly is) but the reason he is doing it is because he is protecting the ball and giving his team a shot. Really though, when you take a look at Denver Bronco games its clear that their defense has really stepped up, as has under-appreciated Willis McGahee. With McGahee leading the Broncos, they’ve been able to chalk up 115+ yards in nine straight games. Couple this with Tebow’s management skills and a defense that is seemingly inspired by having God’s son as their quarterback, and this is a team that is making a serious case to win the AFC West.
Caleb Hanie is quite the opposite of Tebow and just isn’t getting it done at quarterback. To make matters worse, the Bears will now be without Matt Forte for at least 3-4 weeks. The Bears couldn’t find the end zone against the Chiefs last week, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they suffer the same fate in this one. While the Chiefs defense is somewhat solid, the Broncos have been playing lights out. Without a starting quarterback or runningback, where is the offense going to come from?
Don’t expect the Broncos to ever be caught on a breather alert as long as Tebow is their starter, the guy plays with a fire every game and in a way he has to. John Elway and John Fox are practically begging for Tim to give them a reason to bench/trade/release/drown him. Chicago will be the next victim to be “Tebowed” as the Broncos inch closer to the postseason.
Pick:
Denver: 17 Chicago: 6
DEN (-3.5) – 110 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$220)
Under 35.5 (Correct)
Actual:
Denver: 13 Chicago: 10
Oakland Raiders (7-5) @ Green Bay Packers (12-0)
GB (-10.5), O/U 52.5
By the Numbers:
Oakland: Green Bay:
ATS: 8-4 ATS: 8-4
SU: 7-5 SU: 12-0
PPG: 22.8 PPG: 35.0
PA: 25.7 PA: 21.8
O/U: 6-5-1 O/U: 8-4
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 367.5 (12) Tot: 405.2 (4)
Pass: 226.9 (16) Pass: 308.8 (3)
Rush: 140.6 (4) Rush: 96.5 (29)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 373.3 (26) Tot: 397.8 (31)
Pass: 231.9 (17) Pass: 292.8 (31)
Rush: 141.4 (28) Rush: 105.1 (13)
Trends:
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in road games this season (+OAK)
Oakland is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season (+OAK)
Oakland is 11-7 ATS against teams with a winning record in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+OAK)
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite of 10 to 14.5 in the last 3 seasons (3-1 this season) (+GB)
Green Bay is 2-0 ATS against AFC West opponents this season (+GB)
Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (+GB)
Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in December games in the last 3 seasons
Green Bay is 10-4 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons (+GB)
Other useful information:
Oakland has won 3 of their last 4 games ATS (+OAK)
Oakland has had 4 of their last 5 games go OVER the total
Oakland has rushed for less than 75 yards in their last 2 games (-OAK)
Oakland has committed just 1 turnover in each of their last 3 games (+OAK)
Oakland is 2-0 ATS in their 2nd game of consecutive road games this season (+OAK)
Green Bay has lost 2 of their last 3 games ATS (-GB)
Green Bay has had 1 or 0 turnovers in 10 of their 12 games this season (+GB)
Green Bay has had 5 of their last 6 games go OVER the total
Green Bay has forced 2+ turnovers in 5 of their last 6 games (+GB)
Recap:
I don’t want to say that the Raiders were looking past the Dolphins last week and focusing on this matchup because I doubt that’s what happened considering they need every game. Maybe Carson Palmer just came back down to Earth. Putting all of that aside, I think the Raiders will cover this huge spread because of Michael Bush. The Packers are just average against the run and if Bush could move the ball on the ground, he might be able to keep Godgers off the field for some time. Palmer should have no problem putting together a bounce back week against a terrible Packers secondary, but has to be especially careful not to force or telegraph any passes. As mentioned on this blog before, as much passing yards as the Packers allow, they do manage to pull in the most amount of picks of all 32 teams. Regardless, if you watched painfully as the Patriots relinquished their 20 point cover in the closing minutes of the game against the Colts last week you’ll know first hand just how much a bad defense can handcuff a great offense at least in terms of the spread. If this game somehow ends up in a shootout, Oakland has no chance. They need to control the clock and protect the ball if they want to keep this one close.
The Packers, for as dominant as their offense can be at times have trouble blowing teams of Oakland’s calibre out of the water. See, for example, the Buccaneers game, the Chargers game, the Vikings game, and the Panthers game. In none of those games would they have covered a 10.5 spread. Personally, I believe the Raiders are easily better than all four of those teams. With the potential to run down the Packers throat (Like the Buccaneers did in Lambeau two weeks earlier), the Raiders have a good chance of keeping this game within 10. +1 if Darren McFadden plays.
Clinching Scenario:
The Packers can clinch a first-round bye with a win OR a saints loss
Pick:
Green Bay: 31 Oakland: 21
OAK (+10.5) – 110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 52.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Green Bay: 46 Oakland: 16
Buffalo Bills (5-7) @ San Diego Chargers (5-7)
SD (-7), O/U 47.5
By the Numbers:
ATS: 5-6-1 ATS: 3-9
SU: 5-7 SU: 5-7
PPG: 23.2 PPG: 23.9
PA: 25.3 PA: 24.1
O/U: 8-4 O/U: 6-6
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 348.2 (14) Tot: 389.9 (6)
Pass: 228.3 (15) Pass: 277.6 (6)
Rush: 119.9 (10) Rush: 112.3 (17)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 363.2 (22) Tot: 334.6 (12)
Pass: 234.2 (19) Pass: 202.9 (6)
Rush: 129.1 (24) Rush: 131.7 (26)
Trends:
Buffalo is 11-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons (3-1 this season) (+BUF)
Buffalo is 3-5 ATS against conference opponents this season (-BUF)
Buffalo is 12-9 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (2-3 this season)
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in home games this season (-SD)
San Diego is 3-0 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (+SD)
San Diego is 3-6 ATS against conference opponents this season (-SD)
Other useful information:
Buffalo has lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS (-BUF)
Buffalo has had 2 of their last 3 games go UNDER the total
Buffalo has forced 0 turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games (-BUF)
Buffalo has rushed for less than 100 yards in 4 of their last 5 games (-BUF)
San Diego has lost 6 of their last 7 games ATS (-SD)
San Diego is 0-2 ATS in their 1st game of consecutive home games (-SD)
San Diego has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total
San Diego has committed 0 turnovers in their last 2 games (committed 14 in previous 5 games) (+SD)
Recap:
I love the Bills in this matchup. I’m not buying into the Chargers win against the Jags on Monday Night because it came against a team with a terrible offense that just fired their head coach. The Bills season is over and they are now going to attempt to play the role of spoiler. C.J. Spiller is doing a decent job in filling in for the injured Fred Jackson and as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick protects the ball he’s a good quarterback. The Bills offensive line has consistently been in the top 5 all year in sacks allowed, so Fitzmagic shouldn’t be forced into too many bad throws. The previously mentioned Spiller is going against a terrible run stopping Chargers team who is on short rest after getting battered and bruised against the human wrecking ball Maurice Jones Drew.
On the defensive side of the ball the Bills are 5th in the NFL in interceptions and we all know that Rivers loves to throw them, even though he’s done a good job of protecting the ball as of late. On a short week, I see the Chargers dropping a must win game and basically throwing their season down the drain. Ryan Matthews is beginning to show the talent we all expected him when he was drafted, and actually has a favorable matchup against the Bills 24th ranked rush defense. However, if Rivers struggles to protect the ball against one of the best ball hawking secondarys in the league, Matthews won’t be able to produce enough to keep San Diego ahead by more than 7.
Pick:
Buffalo: 28 San Diego: 23
BUF (+7) – 110 – 4 Units (Incorrect, -$440)
Over 47.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
San Diego: 37 Buffalo: 10
New York Giants (6-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-5)
DAL (-3), O/U 49
By the Numbers:
New York: Dallas:
ATS: 5-6-1 ATS: 4-7-1
SU: 6-6 SU: 7-5
PPG: 23.9 PPG: 23.6
PA: 26.3 PA: 20.3
O/U: 8-4 O/U: 5-7
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 379.8 (9) Tot: 385.6 (7)
Pass: 296.1 (4) Pass: 270.8 (7)
Rush: 83.8 (32) Rush: 114.8 (14)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 387.2 (29) Tot: 330.7 (11)
Pass: 260.2 (29) Pass: 230.2 (14)
Rush: 127.0 (23) Rush: 100.5 (9)
Trends:
New York is 2-10 ATS against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons (-NYG)
New York is 2-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (-NYG)
New York is 1-2 ATS against division opponents this season (-NYG)
Dallas is 3-10 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (-DAL)
Dallas is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less (0-2 this season) (-DAL)
Dallas is 1-6 ATS against conference opponents this season (-DAL)
Dallas is 0-3 ATS against division opponents this season (-DAL)
Other useful information:
New York has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-NYG)
New York has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
New York has scored 20+ points in 10 of their 12 games this season (+NYG)
New York has had 2 turnovers in each of their last 5 games (-NYG)
New York has passed for 300+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games (+NYG)
Dallas has lost 5 of their last 6 games ATS (-DAL)
Dallas has had their last 2 games go UNDER the total
Dallas has committed 0 turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games (+DAL)
Dallas has rushed for less than 90 yards in 3 straight games (-DAL)
Recap:
I love this rivalry. It seems to be a good game every time that it’s on, and you really can’t take into account any type of offensive and defensive ranking when these two meet. However, I think that the Giants are a much better team than the Cowboys right now. Eli Manning is having an unbelievable year and no one seems to be noticing. If his defense steps up, the Giants would be serious contenders right now. The Giants still control their own playoff fate even after losing 4 straight and are finally coming off their brutal schedule. The Cowboys on the other hand continue to be a team that can’t put away games when they need it most. Yes, last weeks loss was a fluke, but the Cardinals had no business even being in that game. The Cowboys are a frustrating team because they will continually show signs of greatness against good teams but when push comes to shove they will find ways to lose when it matters most. Is this a lack of talent or simply a lack of maturity?
Eli and the veteran Giants squad is quite the opposite. Manning has to be used to these situations, with his team’s back on the wall and visiting Dallas. This wouldn’t be the first time Eli provided a heart breaking loss to the Cowboys in Dallas no less. Allow me to pull a few quotes from ESPN here: “Entering this season, Manning threw for more touchdowns (26) against Dallas than any other team in his career. Manning has thrown for 300 yards or more and at least two touchdowns in three of his past four games against Dallas. He has more 300-yard games against Dallas (four) than any other team in his career and three of those outings came in Texas.” Furthermore, it’s not just Eli alone that dominates Dallas, “The Giants’ passing game [as a whole] has given Dallas fits before. Wide receiver Mario Manningham has scored three touchdowns against the Cowboys and has two games against Dallas in which he has 10 receptions each. Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks also has three touchdowns in three games against the Cowboys, including a game in which he had nine catches for 108 yards and two touchdowns.”
In front of a national audience and in Jerryland, I’ll take the better, more seasoned team getting points. The Cowboys are overrated as always and simply don’t have what it takes to win a game like this, yet. The Giants passing game is too strong for Tony Romo and Dez Bryant to keep up right now. While Romo can rely on Dez and Jason Witten, Eli has an array of weapons to play with. Besides the aforementioned Nicks and Manningham, Victor Cruz will also get a taste of Dallas’ secondary. Oh, by the way, he’s their leading receiver in all major categories.
Pick:
New York: 34 Dallas: 28
NYG (+3) + 110 – 3 Units (Correct, +$300)
Over 49 (Correct)
Actual:
New York: 37 Dallas: 34
St. Louis Rams (2-10) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-7)
SEA (-10), O/U 36.5
By the Numbers:
ATS: 2-10 ATS: 7-4-1
SU: 2-10 SU: 5-7
PPG: 11.7 PPG: 18.0
PA: 24.7 PA: 20.5
O/U: 4-7-1 O/U: 7-5
Offense (NFL Rank) Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 284.0 (31) Tot: 298.5 (28)
Pass: 185.4 (28) Pass: 194.4 (25)
Rush: 98.6 (27) Rush: 104.1 (22)
Defense (NFL Rank) Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 366.2 (23) Tot: 339.7 (14)
Pass: 208.4 (8) Pass: 236.2 (20)
Rush: 157.8 (32) Rush: 103.5 (11)
Trends:
St. Louis is 0-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in road games this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-9 ATS against conference opponents this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (-STL)
Seattle is 15-8 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (4-2 this season) (+SEA)
Seattle is 6-2 ATS against conference opponents this season (+SEA)
Seattle is 11-6 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (4-1 this season) (+SEA)
Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (+SEA)
Other useful information:
St. Louis has lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS (-STL)
St. Louis has had 4 of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
St. Louis has rushed for less than 90 yards in their last 3 games (-STL)
St. Louis has had 2+ turnovers in their last 4 games (-STL)
Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games ATS (+SEA)
Seattle has rushed for 115+ yards in 5 straight games (+SEA)
Seattle has committed 3 turnovers in their last 4 games (forced 12 turnovers) (+SEA)
Seattle defeated St. Louis 24-7 in week 11
Recap:
Not only is this a terrible Monday Night game, the outcome will be terrible if you’re a Rams fan. The Rams are ranked dead last against the run, which means Marshawn Lynch will go back into beast mode again. The Rams will have no answer for the Seahawks on offense or defense as Seattle is pretty solid against the run and Steven Jackson is the Rams only real weapon. At home after an essential bye week (played last Thursday), Seattle will be fully rested for a St. Louis squad that is just a terrible team. Extra time for Pete Carrol is dangerous, as he is a great scheming coach. We’ll provide a more in depth analysis after this spread is posted.
Line Posted: I know this seems like a lot of points to lay with a mediocre team, but St. Louis is really bad. Seattle plays very well at home and should continue on the national spotlight. Like I mentioned earlier, the Seahawks are basically on a bye and should have no problems cruising by the lowly Rams on Monday Night
Pick:
Seattle: 21 St. Louis: 3
SEA (-10) – 3 Units (Correct, +$300)
Under 36.5 (Incorrect)
Actual:
Seattle: 30 St. Louis: 13
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