Week 12 Picks

Green Bay Packers (10-0) @ Detroit Lions (7-3)
GB (-6), O/U 56

By the Numbers:

Green Bay:                                    Detroit:
ATS: 7-3                                        ATS: 6-3-1
SU: 10-0                                        SU: 7-3
PPG: 35.5                                     PPG: 30.1
PA: 21.2                                        PA: 21.9
O/U: 7-3                                       O/U: 7-3

Offense (NFL Rank)                 Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 406.5 (4)                            Tot: 373.5 (11)
Pass: 304.9 (3)                          Pass: 272.4 (8)
Rush: 101.6 (21)                        Rush: 101.1 (22)

Defense (NFL Rank)                 Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 391.8 (30)                           Tot: 327.5 (9)
Pass: 289.3 (31)                         Pass: 192.8 (5)
Rush: 102.5 (12)                        Rush: 134.7 (27)

Trends:

Green Bay is 31-15 ATS in the last 3 seasons (+GB)
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+GB)
Green Bay is 2-1 ATS against division opponents this season (+GB)
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season) (++GB)
Detroit is 1-2 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (-DET)
Detroit is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season (+DET)
Detroit is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (+DET)
Detroit is 2-7 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (-DET)

Other useful information:

Green Bay has had 4 straight games go OVER the total
Green Bay has won 2 of their last 3 games ATS (+GB)
Green Bay is 1-2 ATS in road games directly after a home game this season (-GB)
Green Bay has only had 2 turnovers in a game twice this season (+GB)
Green Bay is 1st in the NFL in interceptions forced (+GB)
Detroit has won 2 of their last 3 games ATS (+DET)
Detroit has had 3 straight games go OVER the total
Detroit has rushed for 100+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games (+DET)
Detroit has had 9 turnovers in their last 2 games (forced 5) (-DET)
Detroit has thrown the 10th most interceptions in the NFL (-DET)
Detroit is t-2nd in the NFL in interceptions forced (+DET)

Recap:

This is looking like it’s going to be an exciting, explosive matchup. After Detroit’s debacle against Chicago 2 weeks ago and their first half performance against Carolina, people were already writing this game off as a blowout. But an explosive second half from the Lion’s offense forced people to rethink this contest. If Matthew Stafford can protect the ball, he could have a lot of success against this weak Green Bay defense. Kevin Smith, who had a great game against Carolina, could see the majority of the workload on the ground again. If he could get Stafford into third and manageable situations all game, it will make things easier for him in the passing game.

Will the 8th ranked passing defense slow up Aaron God-gers? Well quite frankly I don’t think anybody can. But this might be a great test to see where this Detroit team stacks up against a quality offense. This D has only allowed more than 30 points twice this season, but they happen to be in their last 2 games. It appears that James Starks will be sitting this one out, which doesn’t change too much considering the Packers obviously rely on their passing game most of the time anyway. It’ll be interesting to see how the Packers receiving corp does against this ball-hawking Detroit defense that ranks 2nd in interceptions

Call me crazy, but I can see this being the game where the Packers go down. Will it happen? Probably not. But this will be a close game till the end. The Lions haven’t been very good lately, and now on Thanksgiving the home fans will have a lot more to cheer about. I expect them to come out firing on both sides of the ball and do their best to limit Rodgers and the Packers as much as possible, coming up just short of the monumental upset. Detroit always puts up a fight on Thanksgiving and this year they’ve got the talent to back it up. I’d be surprised if this score has more than a touchdown difference.

Pick:

Green Bay: 35 Detroit: 31
DET (+6) -110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, -$110)
Over 56 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Green Bay: 27    Detroit: 15

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Miami Dolphins (3-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-4)
DAL (-7), O/U 44

By the Numbers:

Miami:                                     Dallas:
ATS: 5-5                                  ATS: 4-5-1
SU: 3-7                                   SU: 6-4
PPG: 19.3                               PPG: 25.0
PA: 18.6                                 PA: 20.6
O/U: 1-9                                 O/U: 5-5

Offense (NFL Rank)            Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 312.8 (23)                     Tot: 398.8 (6)
Pass: 200.5 (25)                   Pass: 277.0 (6)
Rush: 112.3 (15)                  Rush: 121.8 (10)

Defense (NFL Rank)           Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 349.8 (16)                     Tot: 328.6 (10)
Pass: 251.1 (25)                    Pass: 227.2 (13)
Rush: 98.7 (7)                       Rush: 101.4 (11)

Trends:

Miami is 8-4 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (3-0 this season) (+MIA)
Miami is 2-0 ATS against NFC East opponents this season (+MIA)
Miami is 3-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+MIA)
Miami is 1-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 this season (-MIA)
Dallas is 3-0 ATS against AFC East opponents this season (+DAL)
Dallas is 3-0 ATS in non-conference games this season (+DAL)
Dallas is 0-2 ATS after a division game this season (-DAL)

Other useful information:

Miami has won 4 straight games ATS (+MIA)
Miami has had 9 straight games go UNDER the total
Miami has not allowed a touchdown in 3 straight games (++MIA)
Miami has rushed for 100+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games (+MIA)
Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-DAL)
Dallas has had their last 2 games go OVER the total (4 straight UNDERS previous)
Dallas has had 0 turnovers in their last 2 games (forced 6) (+DAL)
Dallas rushed for 163 yards in 2 of their last 3 games (+DAL)
Dallas is 1-2 ATS when favored by at least a touchdown (-DAL)

Recap:

A few weeks ago, people were scheduling their Thanksgiving dinners while this game was on because no one wanted to watch it. Well, put that turkey away because the Dolphins are forcing everyone to change their plans. Winners of 3 straight, Miami is trying to make an improbable run and is now talking about the playoffs in their locker room (PLAYOFFS!? – Jim Mora Voice). Matt Moore is actually looking decent at quarterback and is getting a lot of help from the resurgent Reggie Bush, who has scored 4 times during their 3-game winning streak. Of the 3 teams that they have beaten, (Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo) the Cowboys provide the toughest test. Even though the Dolphins have been competitive on the road this season, playing in Jerry Land could be a challenge that they are not ready for.

The Cowboys now control their own fate. Win out and they reach the postseason. But we all know that someone takes over Tony Romo’s body every time the calendar hits December. Will that change this season? Perhaps with the help of DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant, Romo will be able to ride his latest success deep into 2011. With a favorable schedule, they should be able to cruise into the playoffs, especially with the tough schedule that the Giants face. They just have to make sure they don’t sleep on teams like Miami, almost like they did with Washington.

I’ve been going back and forth with this one. When the line came out I was leaning with Dallas. After some research my mind is saying Miami. The fact that I can’t come to a decision with this one makes a play on this game impossible for me. The way that Miami is playing right now, I’ll take the points considering their road games have been generally close this season except for the Jet game on Monday night. (The 10 point loss to San Diego was due to a late score).

Pick:

Dallas: 21 Miami: 20
Miami (+7) -110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Under 44 (Correct)

Actual:

Dallas: 20     Miami: 19

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San Francisco 49ers (9-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
BAL (-3), O/U: 38.5

By the Numbers:

San Francisco:                 Baltimore:
ATS: 9-0-1                         ATS: 5-4-1
SU: 9-1                                SU: 7-3
PPG: 25.6                           PPG: 25.6
PA: 14.5                              PA: 17.6
O/U: 5-5                             O/U: 8-2

Offense (NFL Rank)          Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 322.5 (20)                  Tot: 343.9 (15)
Pass: 188.3 (27)                Pass: 244.3 (12)
Rush: 134.2 (6)                  Rush: 99.6 (23)

Defense (NFL Rank)         Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 323.1 (8)                      Tot: 304.5 (4)
Pass: 249.2 (23)                 Pass: 211.3 (7)
Rush: 73.9 (1)                      Rush: 93.2 (5)

Trends:

San Francisco is 7-0 ATS on grass fields this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 7-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons (6-0 this season) (+SF)
San Francisco is 3-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in road games this season (+SF)
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS after a divisional matchup in the last 3 seasons (-SF)
Baltimore is 3-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+BAL)
Baltimore is 0-2 ATS off a win against a division rival (-BAL)
Baltimore is 3-1 ATS in home games this season (+BAL)
Baltimore is 2-0 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 (+BAL)

Other useful information:

San Francisco has had 4 of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
San Francisco is 4-0 ATS and SU when traveling to the east coast this season (+SF)
San Francisco has only committed 3 turnovers in their last 3 games (forced 10) (+SF)
San Francisco has not allowed a 100 yard rusher or a rushing touchdown all season (++SF)
Baltimore has had 4 straight games go OVER the total
Baltimore has rushed for under 100 yards in 2 of their last 3 games (1-1-1 ATS in those games) (-BAL)
Baltimore has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (-BAL)

Recap:

Gotta love this matchup. The “Har-bowl”, as it’s being called, features 2 brothers going against each other as head coaches. Both teams pride themselves on their defense, especially the Niners. This team hasn’t allowed a 100 yard rusher since 2009 and hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season. As incredible as their rush defense is, there are holes in their secondary. Joe Flacco definitely isn’t one of the top passers in the league, but he is good enough to find open receivers if Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown aren’t doing their job locking down receivers. Ray Lewis might miss this matchup again, which could help Frank Gore with positive gains on the ground. The Ravens haven’t been stopping the run as of late, but this defense is known for shutting down big name backs, which could happen in this matchup. Alex Smith has been very efficient this year, but hasn’t posted eye-popping numbers. He is doing an outstanding job of protecting the ball this year and moving the chains with ease, but this Ravens defense always steps up for big games and could change things for the 49ers.

Once again, the Baltimore Ravens play up to their competition. After inexplicably dropping a game to the Seattle Seahawks, they come out and beat down the Cincinnati Bengals. Now another tough opponent walks into their house this week. Ray Rice has been great in the backfield as well as in the passing game. Assuming the 49ers shut him down rushing the ball (I think that’s a fair assumption) they have to keep an eye on him with the dump-off passes and screens. This helps draw in the safeties and gives Flacco a chance to find rookie wideout Torrey Smith or Anquan Boldin down the sidelines. If the 49ers do a good job of locking down these 2 key receivers, they could walk out of here with a key victory.

If you wish to call a 9-1 team winning an upset, then this game will be an upset. The 49ers are the better team in this game and even though the Ravens are a much better team at home, the 49ers still have too much to prove. Usually west coast teams traveling to the east have struggled in the NFL, but the 49ers have won in Washington, Philly, Detroit and Cincinnati all against the spread. They’ve shown that it doesn’t matter where they play, they can stick with the best and will have to keep pace with the surging Packers for a chance at the top spot in the NFC. Does a team that can potentially clinch their division in week 12 deserve to be getting points? Credit the first ever “Har-bowl” to younger brother Jim.

Pick:

San Francisco: 21 Baltimore: 14
SF (+3) +110 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$220)
Under 38.5 (Correct)

Actual:

Baltimore: 16    San Francisco: 6

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Buffalo Bills (5-5) @ New York Jets (5-5)
NYJ (-8), O/U 42.5

By the Numbers:

Buffalo:                                           New York:
ATS: 4-5-1                                     ATS: 4-6
SU: 5-5                                           SU: 5-5
PPG: 23.7                                      PPG: 22.8
PA: 25.3                                         PA: 21.7
O/U: 7-3                                         O/U: 6-4

Offense (NFL Rank)               Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 346.4 (14)                         Tot: 314.5 (22)
Pass: 220.8 (18)                      Pass: 217.9 (20)
Rush: 125.6 (8)                        Rush: 96.6 (26)

Defense (NFL Rank)                Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 372.4 (26)                         Tot: 317.0 (7)
Pass: 250.0 (24)                      Pass: 200.1 (6)
Rush: 122.4 (20)                     Rush: 116.9 (17)

Trends:

Buffalo is 3-10 ATS after a division game in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-BUF)
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS against conference opponents this season (-BUF)
Buffalo is 1-3 ATS in road games this season (-BUF)
Buffalo is 0-3 ATS in November games this season (-BUF)
New York is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this season (-NYJ)
New York is 1-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 this season (+NYJ)

Other useful information:

Buffalo has lost 3 straight games ATS (-BUF)
Buffalo has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
Buffalo has rushed for less than 100 yards in 2 of their last 3 games (rushed for 96 in previous meeting vs. Jets) (-BUF)
Buffalo has had 2+ turnovers in 5 straight games (only forced 4 total) (-BUF)
Buffalo has scored 11 points or less in their last 3 games (-BUF)
New York has lost their last 2 games ATS (-NYJ)
New York has had 2 of their last 3 games go UNDER the total
New York has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games (+NYJ)
New York has had 2+ turnovers in 4 straight games (-NYJ)
New York defeated Buffalo 27-11 in Week 9 in Buffalo (+NYJ)

Recap:

The way that each team has been playing as of late, there’s not too much to be excited about in this game. The Bills have been going backwards, dropping 3 straight including a matchup with these Jets a few weeks ago. Playing them for the second time in the same calendar month, the Bills look much worse than the first meeting where they lost 27-11 at home. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been struggling lately, although his 2 interceptions last week weren’t necessarily his fault. He has been pretty careless with the ball, forcing his defense to play on short fields. Stevie Johnson has been a non-factor lately, mainly because he has been banged up. This team has had a lot of injuries (Fred Jackson just ruled out with a calf injury as I’m writing this) and it is making a season that looked promising at first not so exciting.

The Jets, fresh off being Tebow-ed, had a full week and a half to recover. They get to come home and take on a struggling Bills team in a game in which they really need. If they drop this divisional matchup, I’d say they’re done (if they aren’t already). Mark Sanchez really needs to step his game up if he wants to continue quarterbacking this team. Rex Ryan says he is the future of this franchise, but he needs to start putting up some solid numbers if he wants to remain in New York. There’s no word yet on LT or Greene’s status officially, but if they play it will really help Sanchez with the offense. If there’s no running game, it’ll be tough for him to move the chains and keep their offense on the field.

With that being said, the Jets are definitely the better team. At home they should take care of business in a must-win game. The spread is too big for me to lay units with it, especially with the uncertainty of the running backs, but I believe that New York should be able to cover this.

Pick:

New York: 24 Buffalo: 14
NYJ (-8) -110 – 0 Units (Incorrect, -$0)
Under 42.5 (Incorrect)

Actual:

New York: 28   Buffalo: 24

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Cleveland Browns (4-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
CIN (-7), O/U 37.5

By the Numbers:

Cleveland:                                      Cincinnati:
ATS: 2-7-1                                     ATS: 7-2-1
SU: 4-6                                            SU: 6-4
PPG: 14.5                                       PPG: 23.6
PA: 19.3                                         PA: 19.5
O/U: 3-7                                        O/U: 8-1-1

Offense (NFL Rank)                  Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 298.1 (29)                           Tot: 329.2 (18)
Pass: 205.0 (23)                        Pass: 223.1 (17)
Rush: 93.1 (29)                          Rush: 106.1 (19)

Defense (NFL Rank)                  Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 305.8 (5)                             Tot: 311.1 (6)
Pass: 166.5 (1)                            Pass: 222.5 (11)
Rush: 139.3 (29)                        Rush: 88.6 (3)

Trends:

Cleveland is 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (-CLE)
Cleveland is 13-17 ATS as an underdog in the last 3 seasons (0-3 this season) (-CLE)
Cleveland is 0-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (-CLE)
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS against conference opponents this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season (+CIN)
Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS against teams with a losing record (+CIN)

Other useful information:

Cleveland has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-CLE)
Cleveland has had 6 straight games go UNDER the total
Cleveland has scored 17 points or less in 9 of their 10 games this season (-CLE)
Cleveland has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 9 of their 10 games this season (-CLE)
Cincinnati has had 6 of their last 7 games go OVER the total (pushed other matchup)
Cincinnati has had 5 turnovers in their last 2 games (2 turnovers in 3 previous) (-CIN)
Cincinnati has rushed for 100+ yards in 3 straight games (+CIN)
Cincinnati defeated Cleveland 27-17 in Week 1 in Cleveland (+CIN)

Recap:

I continue to watch this Cleveland team play and wonder how the hell they got 4 wins. Even though their defense is outstanding (with the exception of their rush defense), their offense is just horrific all around. With Peyton Hillis out for a few weeks now, they don’t have any real rushing attack and Colt McCoy just hasn’t been getting the job done. If they are going to stay in this game with the Bengals, their defense is going to have to step it up even more because they aren’t going to win in any type of shootout. Once the Bengals reach about 14-17 points, this one is likely over.

Andy Dalton looked out of sync in the first half of their game last week against Baltimore. This was most likely because he was without his favorite target, A.J. Green. He is still questionable for this week, but even with him the Bengals passing game is going to have difficulties. The #1 ranked pass defense has only allowed 2 200 yard passers this season (Miami and Tennessee) and held Cincy to only 155 yards through the air back in week 1. Cedric Benson should get a lot of carries and should get a lot of success against this weak rush defense. I expect him to move the chain on his own and also help Dalton convert some third and shorts.

Andy Dalton and the Bengals have progressed a lot since their week 1 meeting. They showed that they can hang with the big boys in the AFC North and will be hanging around until the end. Although they have a tough matchup against Pittsburgh looming next Thursday, I don’t think they’ll sleep on the Browns. They need this win to keep pace in the division and the wild card. They’ll come out strong.

Pick:

Cincinnati: 27 Cleveland: 9
CIN (-7) -110 – 2 Units (Incorrect, -$220)
Under 37.5 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Cincinnati: 23   Cleveland: 20

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Houston Texans (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
HOU (-3.5), O/U 37.5

By the Numbers:

Houston:                                     Jacksonville:
ATS: 6-3-1                                  ATS: 4-5-1
SU: 7-3                                        SU: 3-7
PPG: 27.3                                   PPG: 12.5
PA: 16.6                                      PA: 18.0
O/U: 3-7                                     O/U: 1-9

Offense (NFL Rank)                Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 396.2 (7)                           Tot: 249.5 (32)
Pass: 238.1 (15)                       Pass: 129.4 (32)
Rush: 158.1 (2)                        Rush: 120.1 (12)

Defense (NFL Rank)               Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 269.7 (1)                           Tot: 300.2 (3)
Pass: 178.4 (2)                         Pass: 189.0 (4)
Rush: 91.3 (4)                           Rush: 111.2 (15)

Trends:

Houston is 5-1 ATS as a favorite this season (+HOU)
Houston is 3-0 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 this season (+HOU)
Houston is 2-0 ATS against division opponents this season (+HOU)
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS when playing with 6 days of rest or less this season (-JAC)
Jacksonville is 2-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (+JAC)
Jacksonville is 7-4 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+JAC)

Other useful information:

Houston has had 2 of their last 3 games go UNDER the total
Houston has won 3 of their last 4 games ATS (pushed other matchup) (+HOU)
Houston has rushed for 156+ yards in 4 straight games (++HOU)
Houston has forced 2+ turnovers in 5 straight games (+HOU)
Houston defeated Jacksonville 24-14 in Week 8 in Houston (+HOU)
Jacksonville has had 5 straight games go UNDER the total
Jacksonville has rushed for 100+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games (+JAC)
Jacksonville has only passed for 200 yards once this seasons (-JAC)

Recap:

You gotta feel for the Houston Texans. This could’ve been the year where they made a deep run in the postseason. Well honestly, I think they still can. The reason is because even though Matt Schaub was having a decent season, they weren’t winning games with him. Their top ranked defense and 2nd ranked rushing game was what was getting them passed their opponents. Foster and Tate should continue to find holes and gash through defenders even with Matt Leinart under center. By the way, he isn’t a terrible quarterback, which will make the transition to him a little easier. He won’t have a lot of success against this Jacksonville secondary, but with the help of the running game, he shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping the offense on the field.

Blaine Gabbert, on the other hand, will have trouble all day long moving the football. And I don’t expect MJD to be too much of a factor. Last time these two teams met, MJD ran all over them, tallying up 156 yards, which is the 2nd most that the Texans have let up. It’ll be different this time around. The Texans D is going to be working extra hard since their starting quarterback went down. Gabbert will be forced to pass the ball in situations where he will be uncomfortable and most likely struggle through the air.

As I’m sure you can figure out, I love Houston in this matchup. It’s not because “they will give 110% with their starting quarterback down” as I’m sure Walter pointed out. But it’s because they are still a much better team than the Jags. There’s no chance that they don’t win this game by double digits.

Pick:

Houston: 34 Jacksonville: 17
HOU (-3.5) -110 – 4 Units (Correct, +$400)
Over 37.5 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Houston: 20   Jacksonville: 13

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Carolina Panthers (2-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-10)
CAR (-3), O/U 45

By the Numbers:

Carolina:                                          Indianapolis:
ATS: 5-5                                           ATS: 2-8
SU: 2-8                                             SU: 0-10
PPG: 22.5                                        PPG: 13.1
PA: 28.6                                          PA: 30.0
O/U: 6-4                                         O/U: 6-4

Offense (NFL Rank)                   Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 400.9 (5)                              Tot: 275.7 (31)
Pass: 272.2 (9)                            Pass: 177.3 (30)
Rush: 128.7 (7)                           Rush: 98.4 (25)

Defense (NFL Rank)                   Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 374.8 (27)                           Tot: 390.6 (29)
Pass: 234.1 (17)                          Pass: 245.0 (22)
Rush: 140.7 (30)                       Rush: 145.6 (31)

Trends:

Carolina is 0-3 ATS in dome games this seasons (-CAR)
Carolina is 8-13 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (1-3 this season) (-CAR)
Carolina is 0-2 ATS in November games this season (-CAR)
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in dome games this season (-IND)
Indianapolis is 2-7 ATS as an underdog this season (-IND)
Indianapolis is 2-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses (-IND)
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in home games this season (-IND)

Other useful information:

Carolina has lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS (-CAR)
Carolina has had 2 of their last 3 games go UNDER the total
Carolina has rushed for 100+ yards in 8 straight games (+CAR)
Carolina has put up 17+ points in 8 of their 10 games this season (+CAR)
Indianapolis has lost 6 straight games ATS (-IND)
Indianapolis has scored 10 points or less in 4 games this season (-IND)
Indianapolis has had 2+ turnovers in 5 straight games (-IND)
Indianapolis has had 3 straight games go UNDER the total

Recap:

Hey the Colts didn’t lose last week! Ok they were on their bye, but we didn’t have to hear anything last week about the Colts run to imperfection. Well, if they don’t get by Carolina this week, there’s not a team left on their schedule that I think they can beat. With that being said, this matchup isn’t very favorable for them either. Carolina’s offense has been explosive with Cam Newton under center. He has been giving the ball away a little too much but that could be expected from a rookie. We got spoiled with all his 400+ yard games earlier in the season, but I believe a matchup against the 30th ranked pass defense could get him back around there this weekend. He should be very successful through the air and Stewart and Williams should be able to make things easy for him. I expect a big offense day out of the Panthers here.

The Colts’ offense could have a chance to move the ball here. As we all know, Carolina’s defense is pretty terrible. Granted, Indianapolis’ offense might be just as bad. Curtis Painter is not an NFL quarterback (or any level quarterback) and the weapons around him aren’t performing well at all. The Colts are weak on offense and defense and are doing all that they can to get Peyton Manning the MVP that he deserves.

I’m taking the Panthers for a few units here. Even thought they obviously aren’t good on defense, their offense is up there with the best in the league. Even if the Colts manage to reach the double-digit plateau (a huge milestone for them), they won’t be able to match the Panthers in a shootout. Also, if they run out to an early lead like they did last week against Detroit, the Colts won’t be able to dominate a second half like the Lions did.

Pick:

Carolina: 28 Indianapolis: 13
CAR (-3) -125 – 3 Units (Correct, +$300)
Under 45 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Carolina: 27   Indianapolis: 19

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) @ Tennessee Titans (5-5)
TEN (-3), O/U 43

By the Numbers:

Tampa Bay:                              Tennessee:
ATS: -6                                      ATS: 4-5-1
SU: 4-6                                     SU: 5-5
PPG: 18.2                                PPG: 20.3
PA: 26.8                                  PA: 19.5
O/U: 6-4                                 O/U: 4-5-1

Offense (NFL Rank)           Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 343.4 (16)                    Tot: 316.3 (21)
Pass: 243.8 (13)                  Pass: 239.0 (14)
Rush: 99.6 (23)                   Rush: 77.3 (32)

Defense (NFL Rank)         Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 398.9 (31)                   Tot: 357.7 (18)
Pass: 265.4 (29)                 Pass: 233.4 (16)
Rush: 133.5 (26)                Rush: 124.3 (22)

Trends:

Tampa Bay is 3-10 ATS when the line is from +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons (2-4 this season) (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS in non-conference games this season (-TB)
Tampa Bay is 14-5 ATS in road games in the last 3 seasons (2-2 this season) (+TB)
Tampa Bay is 8-3 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (+TB)
Tennessee is 2-0 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (+TEN)
Tennessee is 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less this season (-TEN)
Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in non conference games in the last 3 seasons (1-0 this season) (+TEN)

Other useful information:

Tampa Bay has lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS (-TB)
Tampa Bay has had their last 2 games go OVER the total
Tampa Bay has rushed for less than 100 yards in 2 of their last 3 games (Rushed for 121 in Blount’s return) (-TB)
Tampa Bay has allowed 24+ points in all of their losses this season (20 or less in their wins)
Tennessee has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total (pushed other matchup)
Tennessee has only rushed for 100+ yards twice this season (2-0 SU and ATS in those games)
Tennessee has had 1 or less turnovers in 8 of their 10 games this season (+TEN)
Tennessee has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 6 straight games (-TEN)

Recap:

I’m not so sure how this game is going to pan out. Tennessee is clearly the better team, but we still don’t know who is quarterbacking for the titans. If Hasselbeck gets the start, we’re not sure how healthy he is going to be. After what I saw last week, Jake Locker could be successful in this league. He’s got the talent, mindset and ability to keep plays alive. However, I’m not sure if he only looked that way because the Falcons were in a prevent defense for most of the second half with a big league. It’d be interesting to see how he would manage a game that he starts, although it appears we aren’t going to see that this weekend. Chris Johnson appeared that he broke out of his season long slump 2 weeks ago against Carolina but went backwards in last week’s contest. Against the 26th ranked rush defense, CJ needs to have a breakout performance. If he struggles again here, all hope will be lost for him this season.

Tampa Bay has been reeling. They don’t look good on either side of the ball right now and are falling too far behind to make any noise in the NFC. Although Josh Freeman has promise, he is going in the wrong direction in comparison to how he performed last year. I’m sure that he is happy to have LeGarrette Blount back in the lineup against this Tennessee front line as he should be able to move the ball on the ground with success. Freeman is a good quarterback, and will have a good game in this one if he takes care of the ball.

There’s no wrong side in this matchup. Both teams are in the middle of the pack but it means more to Tennessee because they are more in the wild card race than the Bucs. I’ll take the home team because they will feed off this crowd and stay alive in the playoff hunt, but I won’t put a wager on it.

Pick:

Tennessee: 24 Tampa Bay: 20
TEN (-3) -110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Over 43 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Tennessee: 23   Tampa Bay: 17

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Minnesota Vikings (2-8) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
ATL (-9), O/U 44.5

By the Numbers:

Minnesota:                              Atlanta:
ATS: 4-5-1                              ATS: 4-5-1
SU: 2-8                                     SU: 6-4
PPG: 20.0                               PPG: 23.5
PA: 27.1                                 PA: 21.3
O/U: 6-4                                O/U: 3-7

Offense (NFL Rank)           Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 323.8 (19)                    Tot: 369.0 (12)
Pass: 180.7 (29)                 Pass: 248.4 (10)
Rush: 143.1 (5)                   Rush: 120.6 (11)

Defense (NFL Rank)         Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 360.1 (19)                   Tot: 339.5 (15)
Pass: 259.4 (28)                Pass: 254.1 (26)
Rush: 100.7 (9)                Rush: 85.4 (2)

Trends:

Minnesota is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+MIN)
Minnesota is 0-2 ATS in November games this season (-MIN)
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+MIN)
Minnesota is 1-2 ATS against teams with a winning record this season (-MIN)
Atlanta is 13-8 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons (2-2 this season) (+ATL)
Atlanta is 18-8 ATS in dome games in the last 3 seasons (4-2 this season) (+ATL)
Atlanta is 11-4 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (2-1 this season) (+ATL)

Other useful information:

Minnesota has lost 2 straight games ATS (-MIN)
Minnesota has had their last 2 games go OVER the total
Minnesota has rushed for 100+ yards in 9 of their 10 games this season (+MIN)
Atlanta has only allowed 100+ rushing yards in 4 games this season (+ATL)
Atlanta has had 6 straight games go UNDER the total
Atlanta has lost 2 straight games ATS (-ATL)
Atlanta has scored 23+ points in all of their wins this season (23, 14, 13 and 12 in their losses)
Atlanta has rushed for 100+ yards in 8 of their 10 games this season (+ATL)

Recap:

Adrian Peterson left the game last week with an injured ankle. As good as he is, I don’t think that factors too much into this game. He wouldn’t be able to move the ball anyway against this 2nd ranked rush defense. That doesn’t mean that the Vikings won’t be able to still move the ball. Christian Ponder has been playing pretty good lately and keeping his team in games that they probably shouldn’t be in. He will have success through the air because the Falcons are very weak in the secondary. Expect Percy Harvin to be a big factor in deciding the outcome of this game, both on offense and special teams (Minnesota ranks 5th in the NFL in kickoff return yard average)

Matt Ryan has been playing outstanding as of late. His deep balls are on the money and has had a lot of force behind his medium distance passes. He’s also protecting the ball very well. With only 2 interceptions in his last 3 games, he is keeping his offense on the field and when you combine his quarterback play with the explosion of Michael Turner in the backfield, this is a very dangerous offense. Let’s not forget that this team went 13-3 last season.

Quite honestly, I think that 9 points is a lot to give to this Vikings team. However, the Falcons are playing great right now and could probably win this game by 20. With a spread this large, it leaves the door open for a backdoor cover by Minnesota, which has happened for and against me plenty of times. Even though I don’t think he’ll be much of a factor, the uncertainty of Peterson will keep me from betting this game, well, because he is Adrian Peterson.

Pick:

Atlanta: 27 Minnesota: 10
ATL (-9) -110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Under 44.5 (Correct)

Actual:

Atlanta: 24   Minnesota: 14

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Arizona Cardinals (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
STL (-3), O/U 39

By the Numbers:

Arizona:                                      St. Louis:
ATS: 5-5                                      ATS: 2-8
SU: 3-7                                        SU: 2-8
PPG: 19.0                                   PPG: 12.0
PA: 23.6                                     PA: 24.7
O/U: 4-6                                     O/U: 3-6-1

Offense (NFL Rank)               Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 309.9 (24)                       Tot: 297.9 (30)
Pass: 216.4 (21)                      Pass: 191.3 (26)
Rush: 93.5 (28)                      Rush: 106.6 (18)

Defense (NFL Rank)             Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 383.8 (28)                      Tot: 363.1 (22)
Pass: 256.6 (27)                    Pass: 215.0 (9)
Rush: 127.2 (24)                   Rush: 148.1 (32)

Trends:

Arizona is 4-8 ATS after a divisional game in the last 3 seasons (1-1 this season) (-ARI)
Arizona is 2-5 ATS after a loss to a divisional opponent in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-ARI)
Arizona is 1-3 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 this season (-ARI)
Arizona is 2-1 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (+ARI)
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in dome games this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-7 ATS against conference opponents this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in home games this season (-STL)
St. Louis is 0-1 ATS as a favorite this season (-STL)

Other useful information:

Arizona has won 3 of their last 4 games ATS (+ARI)
Arizona has had their last 3 games go UNDER the total
Arizona has rushed for under 100 yards in 5 of their last 6 games (-ARI)
Arizona has committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games (forced 3) (-ARI)
Arizona is playing their third consecutive road game
St. Louis has lost 2 of their last 3 games ATS (-STL)
St. Louis has had their last 3 games go UNDER the total
St. Louis is 0-1 ATS in their 2 of back to back home games (-STL)
St. Louis has rushed for 130+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games (+STL)
St. Louis was defeated by Arizona 19-13 in Week 9 (-STL)

Recap:

Well there is very little excitement (if any) to find out of this matchup. It’s still uncertain who is starting at quarterback for the Cards, either Skelton or Kolb. Either way I believe that the passing game will struggle. St. Louis is pretty solid against the pass (9th in the league) and could cause havoc for whoever is throwing the ball. Their run defense, on the other hand, is anything but solid. Ranked dead last in the league, Beanie Wells should have a lot of success on thr ground. This could open the door for a few passes to get through as well as play action. Don’t expect Larry Fitzgerald to have a monster day. However, if Skelton is throwing the ball, he seems to love trying to throw to Fitz every chance he gets, which could be good if he gets a few passes through, but could also lead to more picks going the other way.

The Rams have had a few bright spots this season. The took down the Saints a few weeks back which got everyone to believe that they are much better than they actually are. They responded to that win with losses to Arizona and Seattle in 2 out of their next 3 games, and needed a missed 22 yard field goal to get past the Browns. It’s tough to say that a 2-8 football team is overrated, but the public definitely views this team to be better than they are. The Cardinals are pretty bad on defense all around, so I expect Steven Jackson to have another good game with a few positive plays from Bradford, who has been up and down this season. Aside from Jackson, there probably won’t be too much offense from either side here.

I don’t like either side here, mainly because both teams stink. If I had to choose, I’d take the points because I think the Cards are the better team, but not by much. I’ll stay away from this one.

Pick:

Arizona: 17 St. Louis: 13
ARI (+3) -110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Under 39 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Arizona: 23   St. Louis: 20

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Chicago Bears (7-3) @ Oakland Raiders (6-4)
OAK (-5), O/U 41.5

By the Numbers:

Chicago:                                  Oakland:
ATS: 6-4                                 ATS: 7-3
SU: 7-3                                   SU: 6-4
PPG: 26.8                              PPG: 23.5
PA: 20.7                               PA: 25.4
O/U: 6-4                               O/U: 4-5-1

Offense (NFL Rank)          Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 332.9 (17)                  Tot: 375.5 (10)
Pass: 216.0 (22)                Pass: 219.7 (19)
Rush: 116.9 (14)               Rush: 156.8 (3)

Defense (NFL Rank)         Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 371.9 (25)                  Tot: 371.7 (24)
Pass: 270.7 (30)              Pass: 240.1 (20)
Rush: 101.2 (10)               Rush: 131.6 (25)

Trends:

Chicago is 3-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 in the last 3 seasons (1-3 this season) (-CHI)
Chicago is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (0-2 this season) (-CHI)
Chicago is 3-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season (+CHI)
Chicago is 3-0 ATS in November games this season (+CHI)
Oakland is 3-5 ATS as a favorite in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-OAK)
Oakland is 1-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 this season

Other useful information:

Chicago has had their last 3 games go OVER the total
Chicago has won 5 straight games ATS (+CHI)
Chicago has rushed for 100+ yards in 6 of their last 7 games (+CHI)
Chicago has scored 24+ points in all of their wins this season (13, 17, and 13 in their losses)
Oakland has had 2 of their last 3 games go UNDER the total
Oakland has won 2 straight games ATS (+OAK)
Oakland lost last 2 games ATS as a favorite (-OAK)
Oakland has allowed 100+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games (-OAK)

Recap:

Just when things are going good for the Bears, they lose Jay Cutler for potentially the rest of the season. Caleb Hanie will obtain the starting role and for those who watched him replace Cutler is last year’s NFC Championship game, he wasn’t bad (13/20, 153 yards, 1 td and 2 INTS). Does this mean he’ll be the next Tom Brady to come off the bench and lead his team to a Super Bowl? Probably not, but he does still provide Chicago fans with some promise. The Bears will probably rely more on the running game this week, which will be fine for Matt Forte against the 25th ranked rush defense of Oakland. As long as the Bears defense continues to force turnovers (t-2nd in interceptions) and keep Oakland’s offense off the field, it will set them up with good field position all game and also give some room for Devin Hester to control the ball in the punt game.

Michael Bush has been beyond outstanding in replacing the injured Darren McFadden. Some Raider fans are actually hoping that even if McFadden is available, Bush is the featured back. However, the great play of Bush is overshadowing how valuable McFadden really is to this team. If Bush ever comes back to Earth, the Raiders will realize how much they have been missing McFadden. Regardless of what happens with the running game, Carson Palmer has been exceptional as of late. He has been hooking up with his new favorite receiver Denarius Moore and having a lot of success moving the ball. Although the Bears ranked 30th in the NFL in pass defense, he’s got to be careful throwing the ball because they have been forcing turnovers left and right. If he protects the ball, the Raiders got a shot.

Obviously losing Jay Cutler is a monumental blow to this team (you didn’t need me to tell you that) but I believe that this team can still function without him. The combo of Forte and Marion Barber should still be able to work the ground game and get Hanie into situations where he can move the ball down the field. The offensive line has been doing outstanding in protecting Cutler, so as long as they do the same for Hanie they should be ok. Oakland is a tough place to play and the Raiders need this game, but I think Chicago works harder and comes out of Oakland with a hard-fought win.

Pick:

Chicago: 28 Oakland: 26
CHI (+5) -110 – 2 Units (Push, +$0)
Over 41.5 (Correct)

Actual:

Oakland: 25   Chicago: 20

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Washington Redskins (3-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-6)
SEA (-3.5), O/U 37

By the Numbers:

Washington:                                  Seattle:
ATS: 4-6                                         ATS: 6-3-1
SU: 3-7                                           SU: 4-6
PPG: 16.0                                      PPG: 16.8
PA: 20.5                                        PA: 20.9
O/U: 3-7                                       O/U: 5-5

Offense (NFL Rank                   Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 312.7 (24)                          Tot: 298.5 (28)
Pass: 228.7 (16)                        Pass: 203.4 (24)
Rush: 84.0 (30)                        Rush: 95.1 (27)

Defense (NFL Rank)                Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 338.7 (14)                         Tot: 333.0 (11)
Pass: 221.4 (10)                       Pass: 233.0 (15)
Rush: 117.3 (18)                      Rush: 100.0 (8)

Trends:

Washington is 1-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (-WAS)
Washington is 1-3 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (-WAS)
Washington is 4-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (+WAS)
Seattle is 5-1 ATS against conference opponents this season (+SEA)
Seattle is 3-0 ATS in November games this season (+SEA)
Seattle is 2-0 ATS against NFC East opponents this season (+SEA)
Seattle is 3-0 ATS against teams with a losing record this season (+SEA)
Seattle is 4-10 ATS after a divisional game in the last 3 seasons (-SEA)

Other useful information:

Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games ATS (-WAS)
Washington has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
Washington has scored 13 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games (-WAS)
Washington has rushed for 92 yards or less in 6 straight games (-WAS)
Washington has had 2+ turnovers in 9 of their 10 games this season (-WAS)
Seattle has had 2 of their last 3 games go UNDER the total
Seattle has won 3 straight games ATS (+SEA)
Seattle is playing their first game as a favorite this season

Recap:

I really love Seattle in this game. They play incredible at home where they beat the Ravens and had close games against powerhouse teams like Cincinnati and Atlanta. Marshawn Lynch has returned into beast mode form lately, averaging 110.6 yards per game on the ground in his last 3 games. Tavaris Jackson has been effective as well and believe it or not, the Seahawks are starting to play like a legit football squad.

There is no way that the Redskins are ready to play this game. They just suffered a very difficult defeat to a division rival and now have to travel west to play Seattle. The Redskins playoff hopes are done and have no real reason to show up in this game. Even though Seattle’s postseason chances are most likely done as well, they love to play up to their full potential in front of their home crowd. Seattle will not only cover this spread in their first game as a favorite, but they will dominate the Redskins in all aspects of the game.

Pick:

Seattle: 31 Washington: 7
SEA (-3.5) -110 – 4 Units (Incorrect, -$440)
Over 37 (Correct)

Actual:

Washington: 23   Seattle: 17

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New England Patriots (7-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
NE (-3), O/U 49.5

By the Numbers:

New England:                           Philadelphia:
ATS: 6-4                                     ATS: 4-6
SU: 7-3                                       SU: 4-6
PPG: 29.3                                  PPG: 23.7
PA: 20.3                                    PA: 21.3
O/U: 5-5                                    O/U: 4-5-1

Offense (NFL Rank)              Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 426.7 (2)                         Tot: 415.5 (3)
Pass: 315.7 (2)                       Pass: 247.5 (11)
Rush: 111.0 (15)                    Rush: 168.0 (1)

Defense (NFL Rank)            Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 424.2 (32)                      Tot: 333.4 (12)
Pass: 298.9 (32)                    Pass: 222.5 (11)
Rush: 105.3 (12)                   Rush: 110.9 (14)

Trends:

New England is 1-0 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football this season (+NE)
New England is 0-2 ATS against NFC East opponents this season (-NE)
New England is 0-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season (-NE)
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-PHI)

Other useful information:

New England has had 4 of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
New England has won 2 straight games ATS (+NE)
New England had only committed 1 turnover in their last 2 games (forced 6) (+NE)
New England has allowed 110+ rushing yards in 3 straight games (-NE)
Philadelphia has had 4 of their last 5 games go UNDER the total
Philadelphia has lost 2 of their last 3 games ATS (-PHI)
Philadelphia has committed 2+ turnovers in 3 straight games (-PHI)
Philadelphia has rushed for 100+ yards in every game this season (+PHI)

Recap:

This is a very interesting matchup because both teams can light up the scoreboard in the blink of an eye. However, one team (Eagles) is significantly better on defense than the other. The Patriots have been playing much better defense lately, but it was against two pretty inept offenses (Jets and Chiefs). The Eagles will provide a good test for this New England defense to see if they turned the corner. If the Eagles put up points in this contest, it’ll be up to Tom Brady to keep pace and keep them in this game. We’ve seen a couple of times this year that he’s only been able to do so much to win games with only offense. After Wes Welker was basically shut out last week, I expect him to bounce back with a big game receiving.

It appears that Vince Young will be getting the start again for the injured Michael Vick and I honestly think that this is a good thing for the Eagles. Although he started off rough in the first half of the game last week vs. the Giants, he really turned it up in the second half. He was passing with accuracy and poise and did an outstanding job leading the offense in a must-win game. He should have a field day against this horrific Pats’ secondary. It’ll also open up holes in the running game for LeSean McCoy to have another solid game on the ground. After failing to reach the end zone for the first game all season, it wouldn’t shock me if McCoy was able to find the end zone a few times before this game is over.

I really think that the Eagles are turning the corner with VY under center. If he plays a whole game like he did in the second half last week, the Eagles could come out of here with a win. He’ll have to limit the mistakes and keep up with Tom Brady if he wants to keep this close, but with the ability of McCoy to move the chains on his own, the Eagles could really dominate time of possession and put all of the pressure on Brady’s offense to keep pace with them. Fired up in front of the home crowd, I like the Eagles to come out on top.

Pick:

Philadelphia: 28 New England: 24
PHI (+3), +100 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, -$110)
Over 49.5 (Correct)

Actual:

New England: 38   Philadelphia: 20

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Denver Broncos (5-5) @ San Diego Chargers (4-6)
SD (-6), O/U 42

By the Numbers:

Denver:                                         San Diego:
ATS: 5-5                                       ATS: 2-8
SU: 5-5                                          SU: 4-6
PPG: 20.5                                    PPG: 23.6
PA: 24.7                                      PA: 25.9
O/U: 5-4-1                                  O/U: 5-5

Offense (NFL Rank)                Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 309.2 (27)                        Tot: 390.2 (8)
Pass: 154.3 (31)                       Pass: 287.8 (4)
Rush: 154.9 (4)                        Rush: 102.4 (20)

Defense (NFL Rank)               Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 356.4 (17)                        Tot: 336.1 (13)
Pass: 242.3 (21)                      Pass: 211.7 (8)
Rush: 114.1 (16)                      Rush: 124.4 (23)

Trends:

Denver is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+DEN)
Denver is 3-0 ATS in November games this season (+DEN)
Denver is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (2-0 this season) (+DEN)
Denver is 4-1 ATS in road games this season (+DEN)
Denver is 3-9 ATS against teams with a losing record in the last 3 seasons (-DEN)
San Diego is 0-3 ATS in November games this season (-SD)
San Diego is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 in the last 3 seasons (+SD)
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in home games this season (-SD)

Other useful information:

Denver has won 3 straight games ATS (+DEN)
Denver has had their last 2 games go UNDER the total
Denver is 4-1 ATS and SU since Tim Tebow took over as starting quarterback (+DEN)
Denver has passed for 125 yards or less in 6 straight games (-DEN)
Denver has rushed for 100+ yards in 7 straight games (+DEN)
San Diego has lost 5 straight games ATS (-SD)
San Diego has rushed for less than 100 yards in 4 of their last 5 games (-SD)
San Diego has 2+ turnovers in 6 straight games (-SD)
San Diego has had 2 of their last 3 games go OVER the total

Recap:

Everything in this matchup is leaning toward Denver. Tebow hasn’t been the best quarterback but he has been efficient in protecting the ball and making a positive play when needed. The Broncos running game has been very good lately and should have continued success against the 23rd ranked rush defense. If Tebow doesn’t throw picks and the defense continues to play at an above average level like they have been, they could be able to shut down the Chargers on the road.

Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback in this league. He is putting up ridiculous numbers through the air right now, but is throwing an extraordinary amount of interceptions. Not only is he throwing so many picks, he is throwing them in his own territory, giving the other team’s offense a much shorter field. For some reason though, Rivers always shines against the Broncos, especially at home. This will be a test for him to see if he is still able to dominate the teams that are worse than his (on paper)

I think it would be stupid to bet against Tim Tebow right now. On the contrary, everyone is still waiting for the game where the Chargers break out. Will it be this one? I don’t know, and that’s what is keeping me away from this game. If the Chargers lose this, they aren’t necessarily done because the AFC West is so weak, but it definitely doesn’t help them. The Broncos are the right side to cover in this one but it’ll take a lot for them to completely “Tebow” the Bolts.

Picks:

San Diego: 27 Denver: 24
DEN (+6) -110 – 0 Units (Correct, +$0)
Over 42 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Denver: 16   San Diego: 13

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
PIT (-10.5), O/U 40

By the Numbers:

Pittsburgh:                                 Kansas City
ATS: 5-5                                      ATS: 5-5
SU: 7-3                                        SU: 4-6
PPG: 22.0                                   PPG: 14.4
PA: 17.9                                      PA: 25.2
O/U: 6-4                                     O/U: 3-7

Offense (NFL Rank)               Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 383.0 (9)                          Tot: 309.4 (26)
Pass: 273.2 (7)                        Pass: 185.5 (28)
Rush: 109.8 (17)                    Rush: 123.9 (9)

Defense (NFL Rank)              Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 280.1 (2)                          Tot: 365.9 (23)
Pass: 183.2 (3)                        Pass: 229.6 (14)
Rush: 96.9 (6)                         Rush: 136.3 (28)

Trends:

Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points in the last 3 season (1-2 this season) (-PIT)
Pittsburgh is 2-0 ATS after a divisional game this season (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS after a bye week in the last 3 seasons (+PIT)
Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite of 10 to 14.5 in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-PIT)
Kansas City is 0-1 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football this season (-KC)
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season (+KC)
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in November games this season (-KC)

Other useful information:

Pittsburgh has won 3 of their last 4 games ATS (+PIT)
Pittsburgh has had 3 of their last 4 games go OVER the total
Pittsburgh has rushed for less than 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games (-PIT)
Pittsburgh has 1 or less turnovers in 4 of their last 5 games (+PIT)
Kansas City has had 5 straight games go UNDER the total
Kansas City has lost 3 straight games ATS (-KC)
Kansas City has rushed for 100+ yards in 3 straight games (+KC)
Kansas City has allowed 100+ rushing yards in 5 straight games (-KC)

Recap:

There’s no reason that this game should be close. We have, however, seen Pitt in this position before. They were 10.5 point favorites on Sunday Night at Indianapolis and only escaped with a 3 point victory. Despite that, the Steelers should have no problems moving the ball on this KC defense. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start even though he has an injured thumb and should shred this defense, even though they are ranked 14th in the passing game. The team knows that they are done and probably knows that whatever they do, they won’t be able to rally with new starting quarterback Tyler Palko. Mendenhall will be a key factor this week since the Chiefs struggle against the run.

Yes, Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but the Chiefs haven’t done a very good job of protecting it. They are 2-3 ATS and SU at home where they used to be unstoppable. Pittsburgh won’t overlook this matchup because they need every win they can get in this tough AFC North division. Tyler Palko didn’t have too much success against the last ranked Patriots passing defense, so why should people believe he’ll do good against Pittsburgh? This game should be a rout, but I’ll keep this to a 1 unit play solely because of how the Steelers looked in that aforementioned game against the Colts.

* As I was writing this, it has been announced that the Chiefs claimed Kyle Orton off waivers. He won’t start this week but could be an interesting pickup for weeks to come.

Pick:

Pittsburgh: 31 Kansas City: 10
PIT (-10.5) -110 – 1 Unit (Incorrect, -$110)
Over 40 (Incorrect)

Actual:

Pittsburgh: 13   Kansas City: 9

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New York Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans Saints (7-3)
NO (-7), O/U 50.5

By the Numbers:

New York:                                    New Orleans:
ATS: 4-5-1                                   ATS: 6-4
SU: 6-4                                         SU: 7-3
PPG: 22.8                                    PPG: 31.3
PA: 22.8                                      PA: 22.8
O/U: 6-4                                      O/U: 5-5

Offense (NFL Rank)                 Offense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 364.6 (13)                          Tot: 436.9 (1)
Pass: 281.4 (5)                           Pass: 319.4 (1)
Rush: 83.2 (31)                         Rush: 117.5 (13)

Defense (NFL Rank)               Defense (NFL Rank)
Tot: 362.1 (21)                          Tot: 361.4 (20)
Pass: 239.1 (18)                        Pass: 239.9 (19)
Rush:  123.0 (21)                     Rush: 121.5 (19)

Trends:

New York is 1-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons (-NYG)
New York is 2-9 ATS in November games in the last 3 seasons (1-2 this season) (-NYG)
New York is 1-9 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons (0-1 this season) (-NYG)
New York is 2-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 this season (+NYG)
New York is 2-0 ATS after a divisional game this season (+NYG)
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in dome games this season (+NO)
New Orleans is 2-1 ATS after a divisional game this season (+NO)
New Orleans is 3-0 ATS after a bye week in their last 3 seasons (+NO)
New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in home games this season (+NO)

Other useful information:

New York has lost their last 2 games ATS (-NYG)
New York has 2 turnovers in 3 straight games (-NYG)
New York has rushed for under 100 yards in 3 of their last 4 games (-NYG)
New York is 2-0 ATS in road games right after a home game (+NYG)
New York has had 3 of their last 4 games go UNDER the total
New Orleans has won 2 straight games ATS (+NO)
New Orleans has had 2 straight games go UNDER the total

Recap:

I like the Saints in this matchup, however, the spread is very big in a game of 2 solid teams. After being upset by the Eagles last week, the Giants have to bounce back in a quick way. The Cowboys are streaking and the Giants need to keep pace. Their schedule sucks obviously and have no breather alerts basically for the rest of the season. They will have to give 100% in this one, the only question is will their 100% be enough to stick with the Saints? Eli is having a top 5 quarterback season and is using his great receiving core very well. The running game has stalled ever since the injury to Bradshaw and Manning is handling all of the pressure pretty well lately (with the exception of the Eagles game)

Drew Brees is without question a top 3 quarterback in this league, but even he has got to be happy with the production he has been getting from newcomer Darren Sproles. He has opened up the running game immensely and even been a reliable receiver in the passing game (like Brees needed another weapon anyway). Their defense still isn’t that great but they are clearly winning their games with offense and I see no reason why that shouldn’t continue against the Giants, especially with an extra week to prepare.

It may sound like I’m real big on the Saints, and I do like them. I’m just unsure why this spread is so big. The Giants are a legit team in the NFC and I did not expect them to be touchdown dogs. If this spread was a tad lower, like 4 or 5, I would make a big play on it but I will keep it small because I don’t really get the line.

Pick:

New Orleans: 30 New York: 21
NO (-7) -110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)
Over 50.5 (Correct)

Actual:

New Orleans: 49   New York: 24

2 Team Teaser – Cincinnati (-1), Saints (-1) – 110 – 1 Unit (Correct, +$100)